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PaperclipPerfector  5mo ago (text post)   35284 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of November 11, 2024

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Alright folks, election is over, now it's predictions time! I want your predictions for what actually gets done in terms of the Republican party platform for 2024, from this site:https://www.donaldjtrump.com/platform

I'm just going to go with the top 10. Now of course these are not precisely defined predictions, but in general I'm going to be predicting something like "is this problem solved, to where the majority of Republican voters would feel it's either no longer an issue, or at least will be happy with what got changed?"

Let me know if you have thoughts on a better way to do this. Now, onto the predictions!

1 SEAL THE BORDER AND STOP THE MIGRANT INVASION

I give this a 70% chance, high conf. that major action is taking to secure the border, make illegal immigrants' lives worse in the U.S.

2 CARRY OUT THE LARGEST DEPORTATION OPERATION IN AMERICAN HISTORY

I'd give this a 15% chance, med. confidence. This one is a doozy.



3 END INFLATION, AND MAKE AMERICA AFFORDABLE AGAIN

30% chance, low confidence. Too many factors in the economy and I don't trust Trump's plan.



4 MAKE AMERICA THE DOMINANT ENERGY PRODUCER IN THE WORLD, BY FAR!

60% chance, med. confidence. There is a lot of low hanging fruit. If Trump and co. can wrangle the bureaucracy, this could happen!



5 STOP OUTSOURCING, AND TURN THE UNITED STATES INTO A MANUFACTURING SUPERPOWER

30% chance, low confidence. It's definitely possible, but rising prices of goods makes this real unpopular.



6 LARGE TAX CUTS FOR WORKERS, AND NO TAX ON TIPS!

40% chance, medium confidence. Gosh I hope so!



7 DEFEND OUR CONSTITUTION, OUR BILL OF RIGHTS, AND OUR FUNDAMENTAL FREEDOMS, INCLUDING FREEDOM OF SPEECH, FREEDOM OF RELIGION, AND THE RIGHT TO KEEP AND BEAR ARMS

95% chance, high confidence. I don't see freedoms/rights getting worse under Trump, personally.



8 PREVENT WORLD WAR THREE, RESTORE PEACE IN EUROPE AND IN THE MIDDLE EAST, AND BUILD A GREAT IRON DOME MISSILE DEFENSE SHIELD OVER OUR ENTIRE COUNTRY -- ALL MADE IN AMERICA

95% chance, low conf. we avoid WW3 under a Trump term. 80% chance we end the war in Europe, med. confidence. Idk about the dome



9 END THE WEAPONIZATION OF GOVERNMENT AGAINST THE AMERICAN PEOPLE

40% chance, medium confidence anything significant gets done. The Deep State goes Deep.



10 STOP THE MIGRANT CRIME EPIDEMIC, DEMOLISH THE FOREIGN DRUG CARTELS, CRUSH GANG VIOLENCE, AND LOCK UP VIOLENT OFFENDERS

55% chance, medium competence. I think cracking down on crime is doable but, again, quite unpopular for optics. we'll see.

7 DEFEND OUR CONSTITUTION, OUR BILL OF RIGHTS, AND OUR FUNDAMENTAL FREEDOMS, INCLUDING FREEDOM OF SPEECH, FREEDOM OF RELIGION, AND THE RIGHT TO KEEP AND BEAR ARMS

95% chance, high confidence. I don't see freedoms/rights getting worse under Trump, personally.

Reason: "Neither Harris nor Trump Is a Friend of Free Speech"

If Trump had his way, flag burners would be jailed, purveyors of "fake news" would lose their broadcast licenses, and news outlets would have to pay him damages when their coverage strikes him as unfair.

Can't speak to the flag burning, but the airwaves are publicly owned and granted by the government. If they are being flagrantly misused to spread proven lies and undermine the public which owns them, why shouldn't the license get pulled?

Likewise, libel and slander laws exist. Why shouldn't Trump avail himself of them same as people have against him?

Because of the 1A. Fox News and OAN should be allowed to broadcast their opinions. The regime shouldn't be in the business of telling them what they can and cannot say. Trump is arguably a public figure, although some people are saying he is a Marxist born in Kenya. Big if true.

I don’t think the first amendment requires giving person A, B, and C a subsidy that isn’t given to anyone else. In fact, one could flip this on its head and say providing the subsidy is harming the freedom of speech rights of others (since relatively speaking their speech is more expensive)

My response is silent on the subsidy. I'm asking who decides what is "fake news", or whether speech "undermines the public?". Trump says his regime should determine that, in accordance wit his whims. The Reason article points out why this might be a bad idea as far as the 1A is concerned.

But this is my problem with Reason types—they never account for context. Yes, it would be bad if government routinely goes around punishing people for speech the government doesn’t like. But it would also be bad if the government routinely went around rewarding folks for speech the government likes.

So NBC, ABC, and CBS get billions of dollars free subsidies from the government. They were rewarded with this because it was thought broadcasting things like the news was in the public interest. But it has become obviously clear that those three organizations aren’t broadcasting the news but acting as an appendage of the DNC. Why should the government subsidize the speech of the DNC?

Take away the subsidy and let ABC, NBC, or CBS bid on the broadband. Use the money to pay down debt.

Take away the subsidy and let ABC, NBC, or CBS bid on the broadband. Use the money to pay down debt.

Thats an entirely different argument. If thats where the goalposts are, then Reason types would be on board, as it isn't about one man labeling something "fake news". The context is very different from what is being proposed team Trump which sneaks in viewpoint discrimination under the guise of free speech.

If he is actually consistent of free speech, then there wont be objections by reason types.

Ehh we shall see. And those are proposals being put out by people close to Trump (eg Sacks).

These are the same reason types who got upset about mask bans when ignoring the giant thumb government had put on masking.

Fox News is cable though.

I think a lot of people have forgotten what Broadcast means and why there's a legal distinction.

In short, there is a limited spectrum of channels we can have on broadcast TV and radio. There are strict rules that the government has implemented to ensure that this limited resource is allocated "fairly." It's not like the Internet where everyone can talk at once.

I don’t see any good reason the current broadcast arrangement can’t be torn up, it no longer serves the same public purpose it had back before cable news and the internet.

It’s basically just a structural subsidy to a cartel at this point.

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