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Transnational Thursday for November 28, 2024
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Notes -
Does anybody have a good background on what is happening in South Korea? Why did the president there decide to declare martial law? What is the problem between him and the parliament? Is it related to the North or is the president using the North as in the US they are using Russia - as a cheap way to smear internal political opponents? Would appreciate some informed insight into it.
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In another interesting development in a week with a number of interesting developments, the Syrian civil war has kicked back up a bit with a surprise rebel offensive that has taken Aleppo, one of Syria's largest cities last meaningfully contested in 2016. What has been almost as surprising as the offensive itself has been the speed and success of the advance.
The Syrian Civil War has more or less been frozen for the last few years, but with Assad only controlling around 70% of the country. However, the freeze not only included the American-backed counter-ISIS presence in the far east, but the Turkish-backed anti-Assad elements in the far north. The later Turkish-backed elements are what have made the recent offensive.
What starts to introduce some intrigue is the timing / possible reasoning for the timing. Specifically, the recent (still tentative) ceasefire close to of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, which depending on whose reported numbers you believe killed and/or wounded thousands of Hezbollah members, including much of Hezbollah's senior leaders.
This matters because those senior leaders and forces were key deciders in Hezbollah's support for Assad in the Syrian Civil War. In 2017 a hezbollah commander claimed to have 10,000 Hezbollah fighters in Syria, and while that number was almost certainly theatrical propaganda it does illustrate the point of a substantial Hezbollah presence and interest. This, in turn, was an extension of Hezbollah's role as an Iranian ally/proxy force, being used to supplement fellow Iranian ally Assad by providing desperately needed manpower. However, the recent Hezbollah-Israel conflict has been extremely disruptive, and Hezbollah is in a period of recovery / reorganization.
What also matters as context is why Aleppo fell / was retaken by the Assad government in 2016, which was the role of heavy Russian air support. If you remember the 2015 Russian SU-25 shootdown by Turkey, that was a result of the Russian aircraft violating Turkish airspace in the general Aleppo air area. Those bombings were heavy, even decisive, but also highly exposed to Turkish interception if Turkey wanted to. It didn't at the time... but at the time, Russia wasn't heavily committed to the war in Ukraine, nor had it been more or less caught in a foreign sabotage campaign effort which may or may not be attempts to shape upcoming Ukraine negotiations by way of some coercive leverage.
Of course, coercive leverage can exist in multiple domains, and multiple forms. Which gets us to where we are now, and the interesting overlap of foreign interests and angles.
Just from a window of opportunity angle, the Aleppo offensive can be taking advantage of the weakening of two of Assad's most relevant allies- the Ukraine-committed Russian airforce (which has so far done some pro-forma bombings in Aleppo), and the Israel-rattled Hezbollah (which had some of its Syria-based logistics struck just in the last few days- nominally to prevent the rearming within Hezbollah, but coincidentally denying their repurposing to Assad). But from a 'why would its backers want to do so now' perspective, Aleppo may also be a Turkish initiative timed / intended to shape/counter the Russian pressure campaign in Europe, both as a warning not to do the same in Turkey, and a 'gentle' reminder of Turkish interests and influence in the Ukraine resolution.
But of course, that later rational would have applied whether Aleppo changed hands or not... but now that it has largely fallen, and probably succeeded far more than anyone was expected, it brings up the question of how much further the Turkish-backed rebels think they can / should push in this previously unapparent window of opportunity.
Does this mean a re-opening of the Syrian civil war, if local actors see Assad is newly vulnerable without the support of the Ukraine-stretched Russia and the disruption of the Israel-distracted Iranian axis of resistance? Probably not. An offensive started without expectations of huge gains isn't likely to have prepared the resources for such a follow-through, and by the time they are martialed that will also be time for the Syrians and Russians and Iranians to prioritize this problem and reach a new stalemate.
But it is considerably more likely than it was a week ago.
In the last hour there’s been reports of heavy gunfire in Damascus near the armed forces headquarters. There are rumors of an ongoing military coup d’etat.
Asad did reportedly fly to Moscow earlier this week, which is always an opportunity for a palace coup when things get bad.
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Just as a general awareness point for Trump-administration Ukraine Policy-
President-elect Donald Trump has nominated Keith Kellogg to be special envoy to Ukraine and Russia in his second administration.
Keith Kellogg is one of the authors of the American First Institute white paper that was called 'Trump's peace plan' during the election. This is the one that was regularly (mis)reported as Trump was going to force Ukraine to agree to Russian terms by withholding aid.
What the Kellogg proposal says on page 16, emphasis mine, is-
This isn't new news, so not much else to say that hasn't been said before- the proposal doesn't meet stated Russian conditions or pre-war demands, peace is hard, and all that. This isn't to challenge anyone's opinion on the merits of even feasibility of the Trump peace plan.
What hasn't been said as much is more about Kellogg himself.
From his wiki-, Kellogg was a former national security adviser in the previous Trump administration, and is and retired lieutenant general in the US military. His military service included Vietnam War service with the 101st Airborne Division, and Gulf War with the 82nd Airborne, which is to say he was in some of the more prestigious parts of the US expeditionary military. His wiki also says he was in the Pentagon on 9-11, and after retiring was involved in the immediate post-occupation Iraq.
This is not, in other words, a Russophile or anti-military dissident of the national security complex, but a literal career Cold War veteran, albeit one who spent more of his career in Asia and the Middle East than Europe or NATO. People expecting Trump's Ukraine policy to be a repudiation of the American military-industrial complex and Pentagon elite are going to be counting on someone who was a Pentagon elite from the Cold War military-industrial complex.
What is also interesting, from a slightly more culture-war perspective, are two points of exposure as he's entering major political prominence:
Which is to say- his family has somewhat significant- and still relevant- ties to the California political ecosystem, which for those less familiar is extremely Democratic.
Further, Kellogg was a witness in the White House during the events of Jan 6, even testifying to the Congressional select committee afterwards.
I make no claims on objectivity how the article has been edited, though I'll be interested if it hasn't changed significantly in the months to come.
Instead, the point I'd make is that whatever Kellogg testified before, it doesn't seem to have ruined his standing with Trump... but as the Trump administration enters the point where personnel meet politics (and eat political heat), Kellogg is not obviously unassailable. Whether pressure on or via his family in California, or a reinterpretation of Jan 6 for political hay (or just to disrupt), there are lines of attack that could be used to make his attempts to deliver a Ukraine policy more difficult.
Or at least, more difficult than it already is. We shall see.
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Some items I'm tracking this week:
Austria didn't pay for Russian gas, as a remedy for an arbitration award. This ends Austria's 50 year dependence on Russian gas, mid-winter.
Anti-NATO nationalist won the first round of Romanian presidential election. Calin Georgescu, who has praised Putin's regime and blamed the military-industrial complex for the war in Ukraine, secured over 22.9% of the vote, surpassing pro-western candidates Lasconi and Ciolacu.
Israel <> Hezbollah ceasefire
As a case study for negative impacts of technology, apparently the introduction of Facebook groups allowed larger-scale cooperation in Myanmar to a much larger extant than before, and contributed/enabled/made possible the Rohinya genocide.
Aljazeera looked at whether aid workers are being tagetted, given that relatively many (281 in 2024) were killed this year, articularly in Gaza. This could be important, because killing aid workers potentially makes catastrophes much worse.
Further protests in Pakistan about releasing Imran Khan
His wives kept dying mysteriously. His secret poison: Insulin
William Dale Archerd was a charming sociopath who married frequently, drank highballs, and despised 9-to-5 employment. He was a natural salesman who married seven women from 1930 to 1965, sometimes not bothering to divorce the previous one. Archerd was finally arrested in 1967 for a series of murders carried out using insulin injections to mimic fatal illnesses.
Israel and Lebanon instituted a ceasefire, which was then broken. However, Lebanese are returning to their abandoned homes
Per Biden's announcement of the ceasefire, it is between the governments of Lebanon and Israel, and their respective security forces. It doesn't seem to bind Hezbollah?. Over the next 60 days, the Lebanese Army and the State Security Forces will deploy and take control of their own territory once again. Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon will not be allowed to be rebuilt.
Food conditions continue to worsen in Gaza, in part because Israel has been blocking aid
The US and Japan are High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) on Japan's Nansei islands to defend Taiwan in case of a Chinese invasion, as reported by Voice of America.
Trump team weighs direct talks with Kim Jong Un. Meanwhile, in his final meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping earlier this month in Peru, Biden asked for Beijing to use its leverage to reel in North Korea.
Documents declassified by the US reveal a list of assassination targets authorized/ordered by Putin
North Korea reveals uranium enrichment facility for the first time. DHL cargo plane crashed just outside the Vilnius airport, killing the Spanish pilot and injuring the three other crew members. Lithuania cannot rule out terrorism.
If Trump introduces tariffs against other nations, inflation in the US would go up, and other countries would likely retaliate.
Bird flu found in sample of California raw unpasteurized milk sold to the public. group of access leaked api access keys to OpenAI's Sora model in protest to considering themselves "free PR"
I'm surprised you didn't raise the Russian-captained Chinese-flagged ship that dragged it's anchor for 100 miles in the Baltic Sea, cutting the Baltic Sea undersea cable between German and Finland and Sweden and Lithuania.
The ship is currently surrounded by NATO vessels, with various European countries raising the rather pertinant point of sabotage. For which there a number of interesting things to say- this is neither the first case of probable Russian sabotage in Europe in recent years, but the timing and the nature are interesting in the context of the recent Ukraine posturing- but it's also interesting on the question of Chinese involvement, if any.
Especially given the Russian ruble tumble, which appears to be a foreign exchange issue given that they banned foreign currency purchases for the rest of the year, which itself followed a systemic Chinese premium charge of Rubles-for-Yuan from this summer
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This isn't really news, I remember Facebook being blamed for enabling the Rohingya genocide several years ago.
Sure. It was news to me though.
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Wouldn't any communication platform work the same way? I mean, you can coordinate on Twitter or good old webforum or even call-in BBS for that matter (yes, I am old enough to have used one). What's so special in Facebook? Yes, maybe this particular group used Facebook. But they could have used any other means with the same result.
Any communication platform that's already widely used, has easy to find groups, allows groups of massive size and keeps those groups mostly out of the sight of unwanted people. The list of suitable platforms isn't huge once you account for those.
Aren't those two contradictory? If it's easy to find (and, I assume, participate, otherwise what's the point in finding them?) then "unwanted people" could easily pretend to be wanted people and find and participate too?
For the rest of it I don't see any limiting factors. Web forum can do any of these and more very easily, and I've been using web forums over 2 decades ago.
Not at all. It's enough that the contents of the group not be shown to people who aren't members even if the name of the group is obvious to people who are aware of the terminology / slang.
This is unlikely to work in English but can work much better in other languages when the censor-happy employees (usually not speakers of said language) don't even know what to look for (and having the group be "closed" prevents them from accidentally seeing the messages that use more straightforward language / imagery).
The thing about web forums is that nobody uses those outside nerds / people with some specialty interest while, well, pretty much everyone is on social media. This makes it super easy to both join such group as well as recommend it to people you know (and thus gather critical mass).
Yes, about all forum software I know about supports this option. Private mailing lists of course predate this by another couple of decades.
In fact, Facebook is about the worst platform for this - if you want to coordinate a genocide, on FB it's enough to have one snitch in the group who would alert the moderators and your group is gone. If you do it on a forum, and the admins of the forum either friendly to your cause or neutral, you'd have to resort to heavy artillery like pressuring their provider or cloudflare or similar providers and you'd have to have much more proof, and likely by the time you pull it off their deed will be done. And even if you succeed they'd just find a more sympathetic provider - see the story of kiwifarms, for example.
That may be true today, because FB is easier, but before FB existed a ton of non-nerd people used forums. If FB becomes less convenient, they can move back. Using forums is not hard at all, it's just a bit less convenient, but if you're planning a secret genocide, you can tolerate a little inconvenience as a price of not being discovered and executed, I think.
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What's so special about facebook is that it was the first to offer this at scale in that country, in a way accessible to wide swathes of the population.
That country didn't have access to the web before? Because web forums have been offering that - basically at any scale a country with population less than the US, making 100M+ member forum probably would require some work - since forever.
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The real reason is Facebook was being blamed by democrats for the 2016 election loss, so they stuck them with every accusation they could find.
I don't think it's about 2016 specifically or only. Any valuable resource that is not under the control of The Party must be either brought under control or destroyed. It doesn't matter if it's being used by The Enemy currently or not, and what for - anything that is not under control is a threat, and must be dealt with. That of course is true for Facebook too. One of the basic tenets of socialism is centralized control (for the good of the masses, of course!) and in modern informational society, obviously, this means control over the flows of information.
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I don't know why Facebook specifically; maybe it was the zero-rate-with-app-garden thing they were also doing in India around the same time.
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