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From /u/gwern (@gwern ?): analysis on China’s semiconductor industry.
Recent export controls are directly targeting the Chinese ability to fabricate cutting-edge chips. The subsequent effect on electronics prices and the much-maligned supply chain won’t be pleasant—especially for China, and especially if their industry is already slumping. Consequences for the rest of the world are left as an exercise to the reader.
Given the forum, it’s not surprising that the focus is on AI. I’m more interested in the geopolitical outlook. This is an incentive to retaliate, perhaps even against the other regional semiconductor fabricator. And it is suggested that the timing is a calculated insult to Chinese leadership, as they are apparently going through a periodic dog-and-pony show of elections. Gwern suggests that China would otherwise be raising hell.
The counterpart in US domestic politics: crunching semiconductor supply will not mix well with inflation. I don’t think adding $50 to the next iPhone will make or break Democrats, but it seems unlikely to help.
I want to place predictions, but I don’t have a good grasp of the metrics involved. Place your bets, I guess, for:
China taking economic action
China taking military action
Consequences on Chinese industry
Tech policy towards China becoming a wedge issue in American politics
I'll shill Chinatalk as a good source of info and analysis, apparently it was one of their people who posted that big twitter thread, translating some Chinese commentary about how significant the blow was.
https://www.chinatalk.media/p/export-controls-xis-s-and-t-dreams?publication_id=4220&post_id=78583462&isFreemail=true
https://www.chinatalk.media/p/china-responds-to-chip-export-controls?publication_id=4220&post_id=78891054&isFreemail=true
I think military action is locked in, it's only a matter of timing. Once China fills out more of its new ICBM fields, once their new ballistic missile subs are deployed - then they'll feel confident in their strategic deterrent. Right now their missile subs are old and don't have the range to hit the US from home waters. New missile subs will start being deployed around 2024-5.
Many people have been arguing that these next few years are extremely dangerous for the US camp. China has been expanding its navy while the US fleet shrinks, China's fleet is young and concentrated whilst the US fleet is old and dispersed all around the world. Now that a good chunk of the US military is hovering around in Eastern Europe and ammunition stockpiles have been drained, there is probably even more of an opportunity for the Chinese.
Of course, China has issues in getting the necessary sealift capacity and the US retains an advantage in attack subs. However, Taiwan is 90% dependent on food imports and is even more dependent on foreign energy imports. There is no country worse prepared for a naval blockade IMO - China is basically self-sufficient on food once you account for them not exporting - plus they can buy from Eurasian markets. Energy is more troublesome for China but not insoluble if they shut down some industry (given they won't be exporting so much that'll happen anyway).
TSMC is an absolutely dominant semiconductor producer (pic related), it makes a lot of sense for the Chinese to deny them to the US bloc if they can't hope to profit from their work. China doesn't want to fall behind in AI and high-tech weapons.
/images/16661369878189542.webp
China being self sufficient on food? Okay I can safely dismiss you as knowing nothing about China. They import close to 80 percent of their food and their strategic grain reserves are mostly spoiled thanks to corruption (a major problem across their entire economy, government and military much like Russia). China is just as vulnerable as Taiwan and would get absolutely destroyed by a blockade due to total dependency on food and energy imports
That's just not true. They import $100 billion worth of food, mostly luxurious stuff like meat and export 60 billion.
https://chinapower.csis.org/china-food-security/
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/03/russia-ukraine-conflict-has-a-limited-impact-on-chinas-food-supply-analysts-say.html
Or take this article which spends about 6 paragraphs catastrophizing Chinese agriculture and then says their self-sufficiency is dropping from 94% to 91%!
https://www.newsweek.com/watch-out-china-cannot-feed-itself-opinion-1575948
China is very nearly food-secure and can import food overland, along with rationing, farmland rationalization away from luxuries and so on. Don't call me an idiot when you're the one who's wrong.
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/blogs/agriculture/060722-china-climate-change-food-security
Read the full article, China has major issues with being able to feed its population. It’s 33rd in the world ranked for food security, and a naval blockade would easily destroy that further.
Overland? You do realize the insane logistics of trying to get food across an entire continent as large as Asia all while fighting a war would be? There’s a reason why all major cargo is transported via ship. Costs would be astronomical otherwise.
China does not create much “luxury food” either. Their main animal products are seafood, good luck fishing when all your boats have been confiscated
What do you think they're importing all those soybeans are for? They're feed for animals, particularly hogs. In world wars, meat production gets slashed because it's not efficient. They slaughter most of their herds for a short-term source of food and rebuild them later. What matters is basics, wheat and rice production. China can do that. Taiwan cannot. Taiwan's food self-sufficiency is 30%! That's what you'd expect from an island that's essentially half mountain, half city.
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2019/12/01/2003726744#:~:text=This%20is%20a%20praiseworthy%20initiative,in%20Taiwan%20exceeded%20590%2C000%20tonnes.&text=Ignoring%20the%20fact%20that%20about,low%20compared%20with%20other%20countries.
Russia is a big food exporter and has good relations with China. It's only that China didn't want to import food as part of their self-sufficiency goals (wheat imports from Russia were banned until 2021), in wartime they absolutely would buy wheat from Russia. The only thing that Russia doesn't do is soybeans, which China doesn't critically need since they're for animal feed.
https://www.oedigital.com/news/494670-inside-trade-from-energy-to-food-china-russia-trade-has-surged-in-recent-years
Furthermore, the Chinese have been spending hundreds of billions building a gigantic Eurasian infrastructure network. The whole point of One Belt One Road is to ensure China has access to these markets and can ensure supplies of food and other resources by rail if necessary. They could also have third parties ship their food to some reasonably friendly country like Cambodia or Myanmar, then transport it overland. It's expensive but not impossible to get around a blockade for a roughly 91% self-sufficient land power - Taiwan is completely fucked at 30%. Japan is around 38% and will have some issues.
http://english.agrinews.co.jp/?p=9725
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