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From /u/gwern (@gwern ?): analysis on China’s semiconductor industry.
Recent export controls are directly targeting the Chinese ability to fabricate cutting-edge chips. The subsequent effect on electronics prices and the much-maligned supply chain won’t be pleasant—especially for China, and especially if their industry is already slumping. Consequences for the rest of the world are left as an exercise to the reader.
Given the forum, it’s not surprising that the focus is on AI. I’m more interested in the geopolitical outlook. This is an incentive to retaliate, perhaps even against the other regional semiconductor fabricator. And it is suggested that the timing is a calculated insult to Chinese leadership, as they are apparently going through a periodic dog-and-pony show of elections. Gwern suggests that China would otherwise be raising hell.
The counterpart in US domestic politics: crunching semiconductor supply will not mix well with inflation. I don’t think adding $50 to the next iPhone will make or break Democrats, but it seems unlikely to help.
I want to place predictions, but I don’t have a good grasp of the metrics involved. Place your bets, I guess, for:
China taking economic action
China taking military action
Consequences on Chinese industry
Tech policy towards China becoming a wedge issue in American politics
I'll shill Chinatalk as a good source of info and analysis, apparently it was one of their people who posted that big twitter thread, translating some Chinese commentary about how significant the blow was.
https://www.chinatalk.media/p/export-controls-xis-s-and-t-dreams?publication_id=4220&post_id=78583462&isFreemail=true
https://www.chinatalk.media/p/china-responds-to-chip-export-controls?publication_id=4220&post_id=78891054&isFreemail=true
I think military action is locked in, it's only a matter of timing. Once China fills out more of its new ICBM fields, once their new ballistic missile subs are deployed - then they'll feel confident in their strategic deterrent. Right now their missile subs are old and don't have the range to hit the US from home waters. New missile subs will start being deployed around 2024-5.
Many people have been arguing that these next few years are extremely dangerous for the US camp. China has been expanding its navy while the US fleet shrinks, China's fleet is young and concentrated whilst the US fleet is old and dispersed all around the world. Now that a good chunk of the US military is hovering around in Eastern Europe and ammunition stockpiles have been drained, there is probably even more of an opportunity for the Chinese.
Of course, China has issues in getting the necessary sealift capacity and the US retains an advantage in attack subs. However, Taiwan is 90% dependent on food imports and is even more dependent on foreign energy imports. There is no country worse prepared for a naval blockade IMO - China is basically self-sufficient on food once you account for them not exporting - plus they can buy from Eurasian markets. Energy is more troublesome for China but not insoluble if they shut down some industry (given they won't be exporting so much that'll happen anyway).
TSMC is an absolutely dominant semiconductor producer (pic related), it makes a lot of sense for the Chinese to deny them to the US bloc if they can't hope to profit from their work. China doesn't want to fall behind in AI and high-tech weapons.
/images/16661369878189542.webp
China being self sufficient on food? Okay I can safely dismiss you as knowing nothing about China. They import close to 80 percent of their food and their strategic grain reserves are mostly spoiled thanks to corruption (a major problem across their entire economy, government and military much like Russia). China is just as vulnerable as Taiwan and would get absolutely destroyed by a blockade due to total dependency on food and energy imports
That's just not true. They import $100 billion worth of food, mostly luxurious stuff like meat and export 60 billion.
https://chinapower.csis.org/china-food-security/
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/03/russia-ukraine-conflict-has-a-limited-impact-on-chinas-food-supply-analysts-say.html
Or take this article which spends about 6 paragraphs catastrophizing Chinese agriculture and then says their self-sufficiency is dropping from 94% to 91%!
https://www.newsweek.com/watch-out-china-cannot-feed-itself-opinion-1575948
China is very nearly food-secure and can import food overland, along with rationing, farmland rationalization away from luxuries and so on. Don't call me an idiot when you're the one who's wrong.
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/blogs/agriculture/060722-china-climate-change-food-security
Read the full article, China has major issues with being able to feed its population. It’s 33rd in the world ranked for food security, and a naval blockade would easily destroy that further.
Overland? You do realize the insane logistics of trying to get food across an entire continent as large as Asia all while fighting a war would be? There’s a reason why all major cargo is transported via ship. Costs would be astronomical otherwise.
China does not create much “luxury food” either. Their main animal products are seafood, good luck fishing when all your boats have been confiscated
What do you think they're importing all those soybeans are for? They're feed for animals, particularly hogs. In world wars, meat production gets slashed because it's not efficient. They slaughter most of their herds for a short-term source of food and rebuild them later. What matters is basics, wheat and rice production. China can do that. Taiwan cannot. Taiwan's food self-sufficiency is 30%! That's what you'd expect from an island that's essentially half mountain, half city.
https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/editorials/archives/2019/12/01/2003726744#:~:text=This%20is%20a%20praiseworthy%20initiative,in%20Taiwan%20exceeded%20590%2C000%20tonnes.&text=Ignoring%20the%20fact%20that%20about,low%20compared%20with%20other%20countries.
Russia is a big food exporter and has good relations with China. It's only that China didn't want to import food as part of their self-sufficiency goals (wheat imports from Russia were banned until 2021), in wartime they absolutely would buy wheat from Russia. The only thing that Russia doesn't do is soybeans, which China doesn't critically need since they're for animal feed.
https://www.oedigital.com/news/494670-inside-trade-from-energy-to-food-china-russia-trade-has-surged-in-recent-years
Furthermore, the Chinese have been spending hundreds of billions building a gigantic Eurasian infrastructure network. The whole point of One Belt One Road is to ensure China has access to these markets and can ensure supplies of food and other resources by rail if necessary. They could also have third parties ship their food to some reasonably friendly country like Cambodia or Myanmar, then transport it overland. It's expensive but not impossible to get around a blockade for a roughly 91% self-sufficient land power - Taiwan is completely fucked at 30%. Japan is around 38% and will have some issues.
http://english.agrinews.co.jp/?p=9725
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That is true.
[citation needed]
And makes me unsure about your 80% claim
Not true at all. They are a net food importer. Not to mention massive drought due to water mismanagement and bad weather has decimated their agriculture.
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A blockade isn't as easy as it sounds on paper. Under international law, a blockade is considered an act of war, and China would be under immediate pressure to clarify whether it is indeed at war with Taiwan. If it says yes, then it implicitly recognizes the independence of Taiwan. If it says no, then other countries are free to ignore the blockade. But formalities aside, I would expect that the Chinese come up with some sophisticated rigamorole to dodge the issue, and that the US doesn't buy it. The US and its allies would try to resolve the situation diplomatically while moving the entire Pacific fleet into the area. If the issue isn't resolved, then the US would take a stance that the blockade is illegal and start escorting resupply convoys into Taiwan's harbors. This puts the Chinese in a real jam—if it allows the ships to pass then it it effectively capitulates and is exposed as a paper tiger; if it tries to enforce the blockade it risks starting World War III. And US involvement in Taiwan's defense is practically guaranteed since the opening shots were fired at a US vessel and not Taiwan itself. A blockade just gives the US time to build up a presence in the area and presents a risk that an actual shooting war will be against the US and not Taiwan. I'm not saying that this necessarily will happen, but the blockade strategy seems inherently more risky than just invading all at once while the US is preoccupied elsewhere and hope they don't get involved militarily.
PRC + TW legally in ongoing civil war experiencing a period of detente.
It's almost trivially easy.
Practically, PRC can simply mine TW ports, crater run ways, via overwhelming glide mines and MLRS all within PRC borders (that can hit anywhere in TW + adjacent). US + co doesn't remotely have the demining, sealift or airlift capacity to logistically support TW off PRC waters. Nor will they convince any commercial fleet/insurers to go on suicide mission of... invading One China territory. It's like how Operation Starvation crippled JP during WW2. Except TW is much smaller than JP and PRC is a much larger industrial power than US during wartime. PRC can unilaterally render TW inaccessible - it can blockade TW with basically zero sustained naval or air effort and shift risk to US actions. And really if US/JP try to run the blockade they're legally invading into Chinese sovereign territory and it's WW3 anyway. TW may have chance to survive a PLA invasion, but IMO no chance of breaking a PRC blockade. Folks are grossly underestimating the proponderous of advantages PRC has off her coast.
You just put more assets within PRC A2D2 bubble. Safe distance for US surface fleet is beyond 1st island chain right now.
There's also the political dimension of A) wanting to favourable localized war with US where PRC has advantage. B) worthwhile to gamble US inaction which will reverabate within region on status of US capability/commitment.
If your "blockade" requires lobbing missiles at your opponent just to get it off the ground, then I think you've already gotten to the hot war stage. And this isn't "trivially easy"; Taiwan has hundreds of missiles capable of hitting the Chinese mainland, and they're ramping up production as we speak. If Taiwan starts getting hit you can bet your bottom dollar that there will be retaliatory strikes against the Chinese mainland, regardless of whether the US intervenes or not. Even still, once China takes any action the effect on shipping isn't going to be limited to Taiwanese ports; all cargo in the area is going to become uninsurable. China will be hit with sanctions, but it probably won't matter since their biggest ports will be out of commission anyway.
Blockade IS a hot war already. The concern isn't hot war with TW, but hot war with US by deterring US intervention. Start with mining to disable harbours which is grayscale enough not to be considerd "kinetic" but more than enough to stop bulk energy/calorie goods. Shifts onus on TW to escalate to homeland strikes. Cratering runways is just exta level of petty that prevents strategic materials from being Berlin airlifted.
Why would PRC hit shipping not bound for TW, i.e. engage in commercial ships within 12nm of TW/PRC territorial waters? There were old studies about redirecting shipping east of TW outside of Chinese EEZ with increased fuel + insurance costs measured in low double digit percentages. As someone who followed this space for 20+ years, the narrative that war in TW strait or adjacent will ruin regional shipping was propaganda for giving TW greater significance prior to semiconductors.
...
As with resumption of PRC TW hotwar, having mainland hit by TW is assumed. In Syria, US launched ~100 cruise missiles / TLAMs for 8 small targets, of which non trivial amounts were intercepted using antiquated RU anti air systems. Estimates for # of missiles needed to degrade PRC's SCS bases is high several 100s, i.e. significant % of USN's deployed VLS in region. Extensive concrete infra soaks a lot of hits. In UKR almost 4000? (have not kept up to date) RU missiles did managable damage on UKR war capacity. UKR has fraction of a fraction worth of targest relative to PRC and even less ability to recover. You're grossly overestimating the damage potential of TW stockpiles.
Just from a weaponeering perspective, TW has minimal capacity to take out an impactful amount of PRC infra, especially huge ports, which PRC can repair rapidly because TW can't generate high volume of fires in a single salvo, while their stockpiles even with projected acquistions are still paltry, which wouldn't survive PRC retaliatory fire anyway. Assuming the they can launch a surprise salvo without being discovered - there's limited places on a small island that is heavily monitored to bunker/prep launchers. TW can crank defense spending to 10% of GDP and island still won't have capacity to conventionally degreate PRC in any meaningful or prolonged way. The quantity (and current quality) differential is just that great, i.e. PRC aviation can drop 1000s of mines on TW ports in one sortie. It's not the preferred blockade scenario in terms of strategic flexibility, but in terms of blockading the island into sealed crypt, it is that trivially easy.
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They can say it's a 'police action' (the US version of the 'special military operation'). Nobody declares wars anymore. The US last declared war on Romania in WW2.
The US has traditionally tried to be ambiguous on its Taiwan strategy as part of a mixed strategy. The Chinese have a tonne of ballistic missiles they'd use to attempt to destroy US forces on Yokohama, Guam and so on at the start of the war. But that obviously brings US and Japan into the war. If the Chinese just attack Taiwan first, then they risk the US pacific fleet intervening in good order. US would prefer that they don't get struck first so they retain those forces - but they don't want to say that they won't defend Taiwan and then betray that word. Thus the word-games
Imagine a naval war between the US and Chinese fleets. Food and fuel isn't being shipped in to Taiwan during that time. Even as the oceans are contested, it's still an effective blockade. Perhaps the Chinese don't want to risk a disastrous marine landing until they've secured total naval and air superiority, that could take a while.
I don't know that a Pearl Harbor style preemptive attack on a powerful country you aren't at war with is a great strategy. An ambivalence among the American public about entering a war to defend Taiwan is going to go out the window after missile attacks on US territory. It also opens the door to retaliatory strikes on the Chinese mainland; every Chinese naval base between Macau and Shanghai would be at risk. It also pretty much guarantees international sanctions against China, at a time when one of the most-traveled shipping lanes in the world is effectively shut down. It would be tough, but the rest of the world can afford to take that hit. The Chinese economy can't, given that it's almost entirely export-based. You're right to say that gaining air and naval superiority could take a while, but that's the problem, and given that blockades in general take a while to get results, it leads me to believe that China won't try this. I'm not saying that a blockade necessarily won't work, mind you, but simply that it's not the obvious slam dunk that some people on the internet make it out to be.
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You're forgetting the One China Policy. States which do not recognize Taiwan also cannot officially recognize that China is at war with Taiwan. Blockading the island is, formally, merely an internal police matter. You're probably right that the US would ultimately run the blockade, though.
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Just FYI, that chart at the bottom only counts foundry revenue. Of the top three, Intel doesn’t do foundry, Samsung is both foundry and IDM, tsmc is foundry only - so no wonder the chart shows them “leading”. In total revenue all three should be roughly similar.
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Regarding the sealift situation, things might be less optimistic for Taiwan on that front than previously thought. https://warontherocks.com/2022/10/mind-the-gap-part-2-the-cross-strait-potential-of-chinas-civilian-shipping-has-grown/
Uninformed amateur: is it hard to sink civilian ferries used as troop transports?
Not particularly. Then again it's not really hard to sink military grade amphibious warfare ships either.
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Interesting read. Those 2.4 million tonnes of sealift capacity sound like a lot, I'm surprised that only translates to 60,000 troops in the first wave. I suppose they're moving a lot of ammo and light vehicles.
Those 60,000 troops come from using Heavy Combined Arms Brigades as a metric for sealift and estimating about 8 of those in the first wave. The estimate deliberately picked the biggest, heaviest brigade level option probably to demonstrate just how much heavy, expensive, logistically intense stuff Beijing could bring across the strait. That's a lot of tanks, artillery and support equipment in that estimate, not just 60,000 guys with QBZ-191s.
For some reason I got mixed up between the bit where he says 'most likely split between lighter brigades' and the eight heavy brigades + 60,000 quote. It's a weird way to say things - do 60,000 troops comprise 8 heavy brigades? Those would be big for brigades, more like small divisions. Anyway, it's the heavy marine brigades that would be first onto the beach anyway, yet they aren't mentioned.
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