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Trump's Mideast Envoy Forced Netanyahu to Accept a Gaza Plan He Repeatedly Rejected
Trump declared repeatedly that if the remaining Israeli hostages weren't out by his inauguration there would be 'hell to pay'. Most people assumed this meant that MIGA Don would fully back more aggressive Israeli military action, but instead he's willing to pressure Israel into a deal they don't want. Israeli finance minister Smotrich called it a 'catastrophe' and if he quits the government it would collapse Netanyahu's coalition.
Details of the proposed plan can be found here:
The agreement includes provisions for Israeli forces to remain in the Philadelphi corridor and maintain an 800-meter buffer zone along the eastern and northern borders during the first phase, which will last 42 days. Israel has also agreed to release 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, including approximately 190 who have been serving sentences of 15 years or more. In exchange, Hamas will release 34 hostages. Negotiations for the second and third phases of the agreement would begin on the 16th day of the ceasefire.
Holy shit.
I'm a lukewarm (non-American) supporter of Trump, but this is genuinely impressive to me. Even if he can't resolve the situation completely, the fact he can progress some kind of resolution at all at this time is amazing.
Honestly if this is true and succeeds, this might be the single thing that has raised my opinion of Trump the most. He's not even in office yet!
He's thrown Canada into a bit of chaos, particularly since the NDP (left wing party) stopped supporting the minority Liberals and the government will therefore fall at the first opportunity. Of course, Prime Minister Trudeau prorogued parliament until his replacement gets selected by his party in late March, so the "first opportunity" isn't any time soon.
We now have provincial leaders dealing with Federal responsibilities (see Alberta Premier Danielle Smith visiting Trump), which is an odd change of pace.
Interestingly, this also appears to be occurring in Ontario itself, since the rest of the province has stood in opposition of the federal government for the past 7 years [and the same thing was true of the City of Toronto itself, at least for a time, considering who they elected as mayor]; this is partially why Ontario didn't set up internal border checkpoints (the police told them no), and is part of how [and why] the truckers were effectively permitted to occupy the city where a significant fraction of Liberal voters live and work for a solid month.
Really, Ontario is Canada in microcosm- it's as harshly divided [against the policies the rich and the federal government (and its employees) would prefer] as the rest of Canada is in comparison to Ottawa. No wonder the Feds (and by extension, the supporters of the current government) feel so threatened and fed up that they can't get anything done.
That's actually a big fucking deal, for the same reason it's a big deal when Texas starts signing security agreements with Mexico. Granted, there isn't exactly much migration across the prairie border (not that the US could really stop you, of course), but the fact that the US is the primary trading partner for each province isn't lost on anyone here.
Canada calls its federation "confederation" for some reason, but if the Federal government continues its abdication and some absurdity happens (either the Western Canada party doesn't get a majority, or Trump actually does manage to destroy the Canadian economy especially if no election occurs until October, or Quebec continues on closing itself off from the rest of Canada) it might actually become what it's called.
I kind of feel sorry for Kim Campbell 2.0. Maybe they won't do it because the PC already claimed 'first female PM' back in the '80s but I have no expectation that they'll be able to refrain from doing this- perhaps an East Indian woman, both to out-IdPol Singh and remind that intentionally-imported demographic who brought them here in the first place?
Yup. The biggest power voids I've seen the provinces fill before this is some trade delegations to foreign countries. Even that could've been framed as just helping the local businesses and industries.
This is straight-up international diplomacy.
God I hope not. Singh has been half-assing opposition to Trudeau for months (and hinting at it before then), but he finally committed to bringing down the government...in late December, with at least six weeks until it would be possible...which has now been extended to more than three months. I'm hopeful that it'll all be over when parliament reconvenes in March (Early April election call + 37 day minimum campaign = new government in May??), but I'll believe it when I see it.
Remember that (under the current Liberal rules) temporary foreign workers and students are eligible to vote for the next Liberal leader (who will be the next Prime Minister, of course). In contrast, voting for the Conservative leader required a $15 membership fee and being a Permanent Resident or Citizen.
Unless they change the rules, that candidate could get in by appealing directly to foreigners for votes, instead of appealing to sentiment towards them by citizens and permanent residents.
And I find it more interesting that the Liberals don't give a shit. Then again, it's not like that had far-reaching consequences in Texas even though it really should have, but then again the US hasn't had an acting President for the past 2 or 3 years.
Maybe they think it'll end with a Con majority so Smith is just wasting her time playing Queen of Alberta (or hedging her bets if the Liberals somehow retain their minority status- and that's a risk I think is understated given the below), but I think the more notice the Cons (and their newer Ontario backers) are put on the better it'll ultimately be for the West if for no other reason than to provide a check against policy starvation.
The reason I think it's still going to be October is just because that's the optimal game theoretic strategy for every interested party. If an election was called today everyone already knows the result; what else do they have to lose by stalling for time? Black swan events are a thing, and if you don't wait for them, you can't get lucky.
I can't think of a more on-the-nose emblem of Liberal immigration policy than this. Fortunately, non-citizens can't vote in elections, so I don't expect much to be put on the scale by these groups, but still.
Eh, the NDP's run down the clock about as much as they can -- at a certain point propping up the Liberals will cost them more votes than it's worth. (and it's already costing them some)
The Bloc I suppose is always a wildcard, but it doesn't seem that they had much success with issuing ultimatums and they are poised to make out very very well in QC for the forseeable future -- so I can't see Trudeau's successor turning them.
Throne speech is a confidence vote; I predict an election declaration soon afterwards. (although at the maximum period, not the minimum -- for just the reasons you mention)
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Yes it did. Greg Abbott is for better or worse aligned with the hard right faction; he now has a free hand to defy the federal government. Internal politics are radically different and a big part of that is the conception that Texan interests and US national interests may not be one and the same anymore. Nullification is now a mainstream part of political platforms.
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