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Do American on The Motte feel that the country is generally in favour of breaking from its old European alliances? I am not sure I have got that sense when visiting but I've visited only fairly D-leaning areas in recent years.
From the British/European point of view, one has the sense from current reporting that a significant rebalancing is happening, one that I would characterise as going beyond wanting to reduce American spending on e.g. Ukraine, and towards decisively breaking with European countries out of gut dislike, and beginning instead to form either a US-Russian alliance of sympathies, or if not that, then at least a relationship with Russia that is rhetorically much friendlier than that with Europe. I think the fear is starting to take root in Europe that the US would effectively switch sides in return for Russia granting it mineral rights in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine. This heel turn seems unlikely, but things are murky enough that it is worrying people.
I feel that this rebalancing is already working in a way towards achieving stated Trump goals – it certainly is succeeding in restoring Europe's appetite for military spending (underinvestment here is one thing Trump has been consistently right about but European leaders have buried their heads in the sand on, hoping he'd go away). But the current situation re Ukraine is also sending confusing signals, as it had previously seemed as though the US wanted Europe to step up and be part of a solution for Ukraine, whereas currently it seems they actively want to stop Europe from having a role in peace talks. The motive for this appears to be stopping Europe from asking terms of Russia that would delay a solution the US and Russia find jointly satisfactory, though perhaps there is more going on beneath the surface.
I did not have the impression that the American population generally has gone through this kind of Europe->Russia realignment in their hearts, Russians still being a regular foil for the good guys in movies (said movies coming from liberal-leaning Hollywood, sure). I have the impression that moving towards Russia is an aspect of foreign policy that Trump has not built domestic support for. But maybe this is wrong. Maybe the average American now thinks not only "Europe should contribute more to solve their own defence problems", but furthermore, "Europe should get its nose out of international affairs and attempt to help only when it's spoken to. We, Russia and China are in charge now."
I'm writing this without especially detailed knowledge of foreign policy, but I'm more interested here in the emotional calibration of ordinary Americans generally. What outcomes would they accept, what outcomes are they afraid of, who do they feel warm to and who not, and to what extent do they feel entirely insulated from global events, alliances and enmities?
Attempting to summarize the ideas of red tribe normies around me
-Putin is not popular. Russophiles are acknowledged to exist but seen in the same way hardcore conspiracy theorists in, say, 2010 would be. That being said, ‘Russia is our enemy but Ukraine is not our friend’ is a good summary of the popular consciousness.
-Most people are aware that EG Poland and Greece are much poorer than the US per capita but believe that France, Germany, the UK, etc have lower personal incomes mostly due to very high tax rates and that these societies have similar resources to Marshall for defense to the US once you adjust for population size. There is little sympathy for euro defense budgets.
-This is the main military recruitment demographic in the U.S., especially for the combat branches. There is no appetite whatsoever for their sons coming home in body bags. On the other hand, most believe that in the event of a major war a draft is just, necessary, and correct. That it would be extremely unpopular is something politicians should consider before putting boots on the ground. The cultural memory of stop lossing and national guard deployments abroad is alive and well.
-Most support America as #1, hate and fear red China, and believe Islam needs to be repressed. But there is widespread disapproval of the, uh, social and cultural goals associated with US foreign policy.
-Japanese rearmament is extremely popular; so are Israeli and South Korean conscription. France, Germany, Britain, etc are viewed as freeloaders that should follow their example instead of relying on American protection. Many think they should cut their welfare budgets to pay for it. British and German hate speech laws are widely hated and seen as evidence that they don’t share our values.
-Most accept that non-US powers are allowed to have interests and advocate for them. But they do not want the US to advocate for the interests of these countries, or fund those interests.
How much of the unpopularness is Putin, and how much is the man on the TV told them they should find Putin unpopular?
Many people I find that express their disfavor towards Putin, would still believe any number of 'Russian interference' narratives, the Steele dossier, etc.
Very little, if any.
The cultural reach and credibility of legacy "mainstream" media outside of college-educated Democracts has declined preciptously over the last 10-20 years, to the point where "believing what the man on TV told them" is strongly anti-correlated with "normie" politics.
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There is no real reason for an American to like Putin, so like, not much? I know there is a significant amount of anti-Putin propaganda out there, but even absent that there's not really any reason to like him. He doesn't actually ride bears, and he does actually, at best, waste everyone's time and money clinging to power and saber rattling.
And he doesn't even do cool stuff with his aggression like nuke Tehran. Its all boring border squabbles with his weaker neighbors.
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These people view Russia as a corrupt tinpot dictatorship propped up by oil money and connections to organized crime. They don't see the racial/religious kinship towards Russians that wignats tell them they should; 'white and christian' are not adjectives they'd use to describe Russia. They see Putin as a thuggish oriental despot overseeing all the Russian state has ever been- a brutal tyranny that fails at its goals without outside assistance due to the savagery and treachery of its inhabitants.
To the extent that the TV told them this, the TV told them this during the cold war. Most don't believe Trump-Russia connections, or ascribe any mystic powers to Russian foreign services. They hate Russia and the core red tribe was in large part raised to hate Russia- I was taught that it was a savage land which blends the worst aspects of Asian civilizations in with things stolen from the west by a cruel, treacherous people who can barely keep the lights on, and are the enemy of all that's good and free.
Do they believe Russia is unique in this? This describes alot of places.
Who said anything about being unique?
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No. They hate Iran and Venezuela and mistrust Saudi Arabia. But the median redneck opinion is to group Russia in with that set of notoriously oppressive countries and not to see it as some outpost of the old European civilization.
Conservative American russophilia is far overstated in popular media, and russophiles are seen like hardcore conspiracy theorists or antivaxxers would have been in 2010- sure, they're mistrusting the right people, but in the most gullible and stupid manner possible.
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