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Culture War Roundup for the week of February 17, 2025

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Do American on The Motte feel that the country is generally in favour of breaking from its old European alliances? I am not sure I have got that sense when visiting but I've visited only fairly D-leaning areas in recent years.

From the British/European point of view, one has the sense from current reporting that a significant rebalancing is happening, one that I would characterise as going beyond wanting to reduce American spending on e.g. Ukraine, and towards decisively breaking with European countries out of gut dislike, and beginning instead to form either a US-Russian alliance of sympathies, or if not that, then at least a relationship with Russia that is rhetorically much friendlier than that with Europe. I think the fear is starting to take root in Europe that the US would effectively switch sides in return for Russia granting it mineral rights in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine. This heel turn seems unlikely, but things are murky enough that it is worrying people.

I feel that this rebalancing is already working in a way towards achieving stated Trump goals – it certainly is succeeding in restoring Europe's appetite for military spending (underinvestment here is one thing Trump has been consistently right about but European leaders have buried their heads in the sand on, hoping he'd go away). But the current situation re Ukraine is also sending confusing signals, as it had previously seemed as though the US wanted Europe to step up and be part of a solution for Ukraine, whereas currently it seems they actively want to stop Europe from having a role in peace talks. The motive for this appears to be stopping Europe from asking terms of Russia that would delay a solution the US and Russia find jointly satisfactory, though perhaps there is more going on beneath the surface.

I did not have the impression that the American population generally has gone through this kind of Europe->Russia realignment in their hearts, Russians still being a regular foil for the good guys in movies (said movies coming from liberal-leaning Hollywood, sure). I have the impression that moving towards Russia is an aspect of foreign policy that Trump has not built domestic support for. But maybe this is wrong. Maybe the average American now thinks not only "Europe should contribute more to solve their own defence problems", but furthermore, "Europe should get its nose out of international affairs and attempt to help only when it's spoken to. We, Russia and China are in charge now."

I'm writing this without especially detailed knowledge of foreign policy, but I'm more interested here in the emotional calibration of ordinary Americans generally. What outcomes would they accept, what outcomes are they afraid of, who do they feel warm to and who not, and to what extent do they feel entirely insulated from global events, alliances and enmities?

I feel like NATO expansion was a complete own-goal. What does the United States get out of any NATO member state that joined after 1990? Are we really expecting the Polish winged hussars to open a second front on the Mongolian Steppes in response to a Chinese attack on the US? These states are a massive liability for no discernible benefit. I would support kicking Eastern Europe out of NATO. If Western Europe doesn’t agree to that, then they can start their own alliance with blackjack and hookers.

The benefit is fewer wars and more stability, which helps everybody.

Plus more military bases I guess. Better to have one somewhere than to need one somewhere and not have one.

Fewer wars?

Removing Ukraine from status of a buffer state and into US ally sure was peaceful!

What is your argument in plain English?

I know I wasn't the one you asked, and I'm also fairly certain that you comprehend what his(?) argument actually is, but I'll chime in.

We have ample evidence at this point to conclude that eastward NATO expansion was going to lead to more wars and less stability as opposed to not expanding NATO eastwards in exchange for a renegotiated peaceful coexistence with the newly reformed Russian state.

This assumes Russia wouldn't have just invaded those countries anyways, which was almost guaranteed to happen. Russia right now is like Germany after WW1: a revanchist power that's seething in resentment. It hasn't had its face smashed against the concrete like WW2 Germany or Japan did in a way that would convince the populace that war wasn't the answer. The only options were to actually do the smashing, which would be very problematic given its nuclear stockpiles, or to contain it. For the containment strategy, abandoning Eastern Europe would have just drawn the line in a less advantageous position.

That may be the situation now, but it wasn't in 1991. Also, one cannot 'abandon' something one never had, or never promised to claim and defend in the first place.

There was little chance reproachment would have ever worked. Russia has always really, really wanted to dominate Eastern Europe.