This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Trump pauses aid to Ukraine after fiery meeting with Zelenskyy:
I guess that settles the question of his authority over this matter!
One analysis I've heard is that everything -- both the reduction in US aid and the increase in European defense spending -- is part of an elaborate pre-constructed kayfabe to facilitate the transfer of US military resources from Europe to the Pacific. These types of "actually everything is under control, it's just nation-states acting in their own rational self-interest" stories always strike me as just a bit too convenient. Certainly many would like to believe that the adults actually have everything under control at all times -- but that doesn't make it reality. I have no trouble believing that this was a genuinely impulsive decision on Trump's part, and that he's not following any particular ideological roadmap. I mean, he might be. But he also might not be.
This is a profoundly embarrassing action IMO regardless of whether or not he's secretly pro Russian (as many internet accusations are saying) or if he's just being reactionary about Zelenskyy.
And that's because US foreign policy decisions seemingly being driven not by wider strategic objectives or alliances but by the personal feelings and sentiments of a president upset about if you wear a suit or only say thank you X amount of times and not Y is a terrible way to go about any sort of long term planning. This of all things seemingly being the excuse to pull such a major trigger, an argument that happened in public is just saddening. He's been building it up to a while but what a lame reasoning to finally start turning.
Even if it's not the actual reason, such a strong appearance is just another point in the slowly growing "Don't trust the US to not change on an impulse" concern for business and international decisionmaking. Risk is one thing, instability is another and these types of actions like "Oh we're definitely doing tariffs for real guys nope never mind oh wait we are nope never mind" or "oh he didn't say thank you enough, ok pulling out of support" and other back and forth unpredictable actions do add up.
The strategic objective is the war to end. The US doesn't give a fuck if Putin will take 30-40-50 percent of ukraine as long as there is a thin sliver of land left between poland and russia as a buffer. US has bigger leverage over Zelensky than Putin, so this is where they push.
You know US is getting serious when they cut off starlink, not missiles.
Trump's actions ensure "the war" will keep on going, in one form or another. Russian expansionism is not going anywhere any time soon, and Trump just gave it a boost.
Leaving aside less charitable explanations, Trump is more likely trying to put pressure on the EU, using Russia as a lever. His opinions on the EU are well known, and the challenge from the Russian side will likely be serious enough to lead to major shifts within the EU, potentially in a way that's appealing to Trump or Trump's circle.
This is likely the end of US hegemony in Europe — or anywhere else for that matter. The US Empire is unable to afford the hegemony, Trump's random acts of trying to scrap some money together are pretty much doomed. (Not to mention that this money will end up in the pockets of rich people.)
If Europe survives this, then probably as a joint military power and with France supplying the nuclear weapons.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
Or, to cut the crap, the US goal is a quick Ukrainian surrender and Russian victory. This will get the dead bodies off Trump's TV set. (There will still be dead bodies as Russia genocides the Ukrainian population of the territory they occupy, but the Russians won't allow the media to report on them).
If that is a US goal (or even if it isn't), they won't get it. A core Russian war aim is to turn Ukraine into a client state. Belarus doesn't work as a buffer between Russia and Poland, and a Putin-controlled Ukraine won't work either for the same reason. A neutral buffer state (pre-WW1 Belgium is the classic example) works because both sides understand that violating it's neutrality is kicking off the big one. Trump is committed to the idea that Russian violations of future-Ukraine's neutrality should not be a casus belli for the US.
Where is your evidence that Russia is interested in genociding Ukraine? They’re a bog standard tinpot dictatorship which will persecute dissidents but not butcher the civilian population.
I think @Dean might argue that, if Russia were to nab Ukraine and get hungry for seconds, the Ukrainians will be the first wave of cannon fodder sent against the next unlucky bastards.
That was certainly their strategy with the LNR/DNR.
However, conscripting in the extreme is (usually) not considered genocide. The reasons why Russia would merit genocide under international law is on the basis of expansionist parts of the genocide definition that I've in the past noted I feel are improperly used to over-use the term.
This is a very fair point to raise, I'm just wanting to point out that the "what about the Ukrainians?" line of argument ignores all the ways that Russia can keep reducing the Ukrainian population even in the event of capitulation and surrender.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
If the US goal was a quick Ukranian surrender and Russian victory, Trump would have just pulled out the rug without all the rigamarole of meeting with Zelensky in the first place. Trump wants to make a deal to stop the war. So far all the Russians have been offering is "we take half now and half later". If Zelensky had managed to avoid Vance baiting him, probably Trump would have gotten irritated at Putin instead.
This is true, but no one is willing to make Russian violations of Ukraine's neutrality a casus bellum.
More options
Context Copy link
...In the same way that at the end, the US goal in Afghanistan changed to being a quick Afghan government surrender and Taliban victory, yes?
I am willing to endorse an end to the war under any description you impose. I understand that people like yourself will frame my desire as cowardice, sedition, treason, evidence that I am a Russian/Chinese/Islamist/Nazi shill, that I want people to die. I understand that you believe that these next six months are critical, and that if we only stay the course victory is just around the corner, as the evil people who are Hitler Reborn will finally crumble and be routed in a glorious liberation, and then peace and justice will reign forever. I have been participating in this particular game live and in person for twenty five years, and have read a fair amount of the history of the preceding century. The moves are pretty well established at this point. People like yourself are always in favor of other people's money and lives being spent in unlimited quantities, while taking zero responsibility for the results. My vote is for no more.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link