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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   Edited 1yr ago   34407 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of November 14, 2022

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Russian rockets crossed over the Polish border, killing two farmers.

Polish government official says national security meeting was called due to "emergency situation"

Pentagon is ' aware '

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-11-15-22/index.html

This stirred something in me that is rarely stirred (I was born in Poland). Some sort of patriotic anger. The Poles, along with the former Soviet states and most of Eastern Europe, absolutely loathe the Russians.

I imagine this isn't enough to send in the troops - but I could see myself reading a history book in 30 years about how Poland, and by extension, everyone else, were pulled into the Great Russian War by a bomb and two dead farmers.

Edit: Russia calls it provocation that Poland stated this

https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/11/16/Russia-says-Polish-statements-of-Russian-missiles-hitting-its-territory-provocation-

I imagine this isn't enough to send in the troops - but I could see myself reading a history book in 30 years about how Poland, and by extension, everyone else, were pulled into the Great Russian War by a bomb and two dead farmers.

The problem here, I think, is simple to state, but devilishly complicated to solve: is NATO membership worthwhile?

If things did unfold as it seems, then Russia is responsible for a military attack on a NATO country. If it's "accidental," Russia essentially has to sacrifice someone's head on a platter--even though there's no reason to think Putin wouldn't just send some of his own troops to take responsibility, to keep the West guessing. But if there is no reprisal, then Poland, at least, has to be asking, what's the point of belonging to NATO? NATO, the alliance that was specifically created to deter Russian military incursions?

On the other hand, if there is reprisal... maybe WW3? A big NATO fight in Europe basically guarantees an attack-of-opportunity on Taiwan, and god-only-knows where else.

And if this is actually a Ukrainian false flag somehow, like... what a way to gamble. But I suppose a nation faced with a genuinely existential crisis has no reason to not gamble with the fate of the whole world, beyond pure, likely supererogatory altruism.

A year ago I'd probably have said "this is surely an accident and Russia is going to make that very clear very quickly, possibly with generous payments to next-of-kin." Today? I just don't know.

Arent a few farmers dying extremely weird? What’s the possibility that the missile falls on a farm exactly where the handful of people are at that moment.

Not only that, if you look at the photos it looks like the missile directly hit a tractor.

No one knows what it was programmed to do exactly but here's a good example scenario:

The missile should fly 400km Westward, but a sensor malfunctioned and miscounted its distance. Once that sensor thought it had been 400km, it turned on the visual targeting system. Normally, this would look for a building of a certain shape - but in the middle of a field, it found no buildings. It went to secondary targets, tanks and so on. It found a tractor and went for it.

Is that how missiles work though? That sounds way smarter than I assume missiles are.

Here's the wiki on the s-300, which is likely what this was: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-300_missile_system

It seems like there is a base station with a radar on it that it uses for target acquisition, not on the missile itself.

That’s true for acquisition, but if you look at Specifications for the table of weapons launched, the more recent ones have their own radar.

Radar or IR is far more likely, but your basic premise is sound. If you're out in the middle of acres of farmland that big steel frame and engine block is going to be the strongest radar return for miles around, ditto the tractor's hot exhaust for an IR guided missile.

Looks like these are radar-guided, so it probably homed on the radar reflection of the tractor.

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