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Notes -
China has retaliated with 84% tariffs on US goods:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2025-04-08/trump-tariffs-stock-market-updates
Trade war is now on for real.
People now have to game out the answer to one question:
What does it take for ~85 Republican representatives in the House to vote, with a veto-proof majority, to reassert congressional control over tariffs? I say the House because I think if it gets to that point in the House, the Senate will probably be fine.
How far do Trump’s ratings have to fall that they are no longer afraid of retribution?
How far does polling for the party have to fall that they are worried for their jobs, even in erstwhile deep red districts?
I’m actually bullish on this happening. People are already shitting themselves and we haven’t even begun to feel the inflation, layoffs, pullback in consumer spending etc.
Even Trump cannot survive 10-20% inflation, layoffs, market meltdown, etc. when all it takes to rebound it is either get rid of him or take his tariff power away
Who is going to do it? The Republicans either agree with him or don't have the cojones. The Robed 9 won't save us (they could, with the major questions doctrine, but Roberts is going to enjoy whispering "no")
There’s all kinds of fun options depending on how bad it gets.
There’s already 7 GOP senators trying to take his tariff power away and nothing tangible outside the market has even happened yet. Elon is calling other members of the inner circle retards for their trade policy (proxy shot at Trump).
Most realistic scenario is that congress just votes to take tariffs away and overrides the veto. If there is blood in the streets even a GOP congressman will be loyal to his constituents who are mailing him death threats and threatening his political career forever. And it’s much easier to swallow just taking back tariff power over an actual impeachment or something.
If it gets really bad, like Great Depression bad, I would bet my life savings he gets JFKed or has a mysterious heart attack/plane crash/take your pick.
You simply cannot survive as a politician in America if you fuck with the economy to this extent. We already see the campaign ramping up, Jamie Dimon and other financial bigwigs are pressuring Trump (first option in the toolbox) but if he continues to go full retard they will take the other tools out too.
How many politicians were assassinated during the COVID lockdowns or during the Great Depression?
A couple in the Depression. More if you count local politicians, conventions, etc.
Not so much during COVID, perhaps because, you know, it wasn’t that bad?
This asshole tried to kill a judge in 2020, but it was some sort of unhinged #MeToo grift instead of a COVID thing. And then there was this random act of schizophrenia in 2023.
But really, violence is rare.
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If you believe the FBI, there was that plot to kidnap governor Whitmer.
Well, the plot existed, even if it was developed at the Hoover building.
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The COVID lockdowns made the rich richer than ever before as infinite money was ploughed into pumping equities and real estate, why would they have been unhappy with that?
The lockdowns caused a massive plunge in the stock market. There was a recovery, but I don't see how that could have been caused by money printing. Printing money doesn't affect the real prices of assets.
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