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Notes -
New data from Pew on the Israel-Palestinian topic
Negative views of Israel have increased, but in a unique way according to demographics. 50% of Republican-leaning Americans under 50yo have a negative view, up from 35% in 2022. For the Dem-leaning in this age bracket, there’s been only a 3% shift toward negative views. For 50yo+ Republicans, negative views have increased by just 3% to sit at 23%; but for Dems in this age bracket, there’s been a 13% increase to 66%. Most of the shift in the public’s dislike of Israel has occurred among younger Republicans and older Democrats. This is interesting data, because there’s been an idea circulating that the shift in public perception of Israel is driven by younger minority progressives. And while that’s a big part, the data really tells us that Americans have changed their view in recent years in ways unaccounted for by demographic change, but which can be explained by the war. Because in just three years, from 2022 to 2025, we’re seeing huge shifts in regards to views on Israel while demographics have only changed slightly.
I think this shift is clear when looking at the media young people consume. Theo Von inconspicuously doing an “early life check” on the Sackler family in his interview with JD Vance; Shane Gillis on KillTony a few days ago; the popular youth streamer “iShowSpeed” refusing to talk to people if they mention they are Israeli. Pro-Israel Americans need a feasible game plan for dealing with this shift which doesn’t fall victim to the Streisand Effect. The current strategy of deporting foreign national students is bad, because the negative publicity far outweighs the tiny changes on university campuses. Zone of Interest came out in 2023, and our media reported on October 7th crimes well enough, yet these clearly didn’t move the needle on public favorability. There doesn’t appear to be any youth figure who can shift perceptions.
How likely today is the return of North America to the American natives? Outside of awkward land acknowledgements at Canadian universities, nobody even seems to care. The issue is settled, the settlers won, the natives herded to small corners of some of the worst land in the country and left to rot away from alcoholism. A German-Scot is in charge.
The only way to ensure Israel’s survival in the long term is an end to the Palestinian issue. Even if approval of Israel drops to just 10% for a time, the more time passes since the end of the issue, the less people (even other Muslims) will care. Netanyahu’s biggest mistake in Gaza was that he killed 50,000 over 18 months. If he had killed 200,000 over 18 hours he would not have faced half as much opprobrium.
With every passing year that the conflict continues, easy fodder for Muslims, leftists and rightist antisemites, Israel’s collapse and failure becomes more likely. The only viable plan for any effective Zionist to support is one that opposes the status quo of 1973-2023. (By the way, as a Jew sympathetic to Zionism, I consider Israel’s survival unlikely in the medium term).
Can you elaborate on why?
They will likely soon face South Africa style trade sanctions from Europe. The Islamic world will continue its aggression. American progressives will eventually follow Europe and then it will be one of the smallest countries in the world with no way to import essential goods. If the world was merely neutral, it would be fine. It is already heavily anti-Israel. Once it goes to full boycott it wont matter that a well supplied Israeli army could conquer all of its neighboring countries simultaneously. Because they wont be well supplied, they will be with no steel, petrol, powder, etc. It will be a race to the boats.
Sanctions didn’t bring down South Africa, fertility differentials and guerrilla warfare did.
Don't know enough about SA, but sanctions absolutely played a major role in the fall of Rhodesia from what I recall from Ian Smith's memoirs. In particular the loss of Portuguese support following the end of Salazar's government (meaning Mozambique could now be used as a safe base of operations from rebels) and loss of South African support after Operation Eland (when the Rhodies decided to go after Mozambique-based rebels anyways and the rebels were able to falsely portray it as a brutal massacre of innocent refugees).
But Rhodesian whites were such a small minority that it’s not a good basis of comparison for… anything.
Sure, but despite their small percentage they were absolutely dominating the insurgents in guerilla warfare. The Rhodesian Bush War was arguably the most successful counter-insurgency ever, or at least in modern warfare.
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