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Notes -
New data from Pew on the Israel-Palestinian topic
Negative views of Israel have increased, but in a unique way according to demographics. 50% of Republican-leaning Americans under 50yo have a negative view, up from 35% in 2022. For the Dem-leaning in this age bracket, there’s been only a 3% shift toward negative views. For 50yo+ Republicans, negative views have increased by just 3% to sit at 23%; but for Dems in this age bracket, there’s been a 13% increase to 66%. Most of the shift in the public’s dislike of Israel has occurred among younger Republicans and older Democrats. This is interesting data, because there’s been an idea circulating that the shift in public perception of Israel is driven by younger minority progressives. And while that’s a big part, the data really tells us that Americans have changed their view in recent years in ways unaccounted for by demographic change, but which can be explained by the war. Because in just three years, from 2022 to 2025, we’re seeing huge shifts in regards to views on Israel while demographics have only changed slightly.
I think this shift is clear when looking at the media young people consume. Theo Von inconspicuously doing an “early life check” on the Sackler family in his interview with JD Vance; Shane Gillis on KillTony a few days ago; the popular youth streamer “iShowSpeed” refusing to talk to people if they mention they are Israeli. Pro-Israel Americans need a feasible game plan for dealing with this shift which doesn’t fall victim to the Streisand Effect. The current strategy of deporting foreign national students is bad, because the negative publicity far outweighs the tiny changes on university campuses. Zone of Interest came out in 2023, and our media reported on October 7th crimes well enough, yet these clearly didn’t move the needle on public favorability. There doesn’t appear to be any youth figure who can shift perceptions.
How likely today is the return of North America to the American natives? Outside of awkward land acknowledgements at Canadian universities, nobody even seems to care. The issue is settled, the settlers won, the natives herded to small corners of some of the worst land in the country and left to rot away from alcoholism. A German-Scot is in charge.
The only way to ensure Israel’s survival in the long term is an end to the Palestinian issue. Even if approval of Israel drops to just 10% for a time, the more time passes since the end of the issue, the less people (even other Muslims) will care. Netanyahu’s biggest mistake in Gaza was that he killed 50,000 over 18 months. If he had killed 200,000 over 18 hours he would not have faced half as much opprobrium.
With every passing year that the conflict continues, easy fodder for Muslims, leftists and rightist antisemites, Israel’s collapse and failure becomes more likely. The only viable plan for any effective Zionist to support is one that opposes the status quo of 1973-2023. (By the way, as a Jew sympathetic to Zionism, I consider Israel’s survival unlikely in the medium term).
you mean giving all the Palestinians citizenship + reserves + the complete freedom of movement?
Israel was a giant mistake and should end similarly to French Algeria. The French were their for a century, it wasn't sustainable and they left.
A completely genocidal country that is sees murdering people fast as a way to get away with it is going to be an enemy of everyone around them.
You think they should return to Poland, Yemen, Egypt and Iraq?
The Pieds Noirs could return from French Algeria to their homeland. The majority of Israelis have no other homeland.
…after they become ~2% of the total population, sure.
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I think he would have faced more. 200,000 in 18 hours is a WW2-scale or third world-scale mass killing, and not only would it be impossible to hide it, given modern communications technology, but also it would be impossible to make a widely accepted argument that this is a proportional response to 10/7. With 50,000 over 18 months, on the other hand, it is possible to make a widely accepted (though of course, very controversial) argument that it is a proportional response to 10/7, given Hamas hiding among civilians and so on.
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Can you elaborate on why?
They will likely soon face South Africa style trade sanctions from Europe. The Islamic world will continue its aggression. American progressives will eventually follow Europe and then it will be one of the smallest countries in the world with no way to import essential goods. If the world was merely neutral, it would be fine. It is already heavily anti-Israel. Once it goes to full boycott it wont matter that a well supplied Israeli army could conquer all of its neighboring countries simultaneously. Because they wont be well supplied, they will be with no steel, petrol, powder, etc. It will be a race to the boats.
Sanctions didn’t bring down South Africa, fertility differentials and guerrilla warfare did.
Those other things are easily overcome with proper military and police force applied.
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Don't know enough about SA, but sanctions absolutely played a major role in the fall of Rhodesia from what I recall from Ian Smith's memoirs. In particular the loss of Portuguese support following the end of Salazar's government (meaning Mozambique could now be used as a safe base of operations from rebels) and loss of South African support after Operation Eland (when the Rhodies decided to go after Mozambique-based rebels anyways and the rebels were able to falsely portray it as a brutal massacre of innocent refugees).
But Rhodesian whites were such a small minority that it’s not a good basis of comparison for… anything.
Sure, but despite their small percentage they were absolutely dominating the insurgents in guerilla warfare. The Rhodesian Bush War was arguably the most successful counter-insurgency ever, or at least in modern warfare.
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I'm assuming the riffs on "who now remembers the genocide of the Armenians" is fully intentional? ;)
I think it’s a thought more like the natives in the Americas, or most other similar wars. They used to be fought to completion and capitulation— basically until the losing side would understand that not only can they never win, but that even attempting this will do nothing to the enemy but mean decimated populations for that losing side. This is simply the natural order of human civilization as it happed from time immemorial. What happened to the Hittites? They were eventually conquered and absorbed into the Assyrian empire that eventually was itself absorbed into the Ottoman Empire. Those who were once a big empire are now assimilated to the point that they no longer exist as a people.
And especially with Israel — a small state about the size of New Jersey — I see capitulation as the only real answer as there’s just not enough room for two states to exist next to each other with no friction. That’s assuming a two-state solution in which all sides want to get along, which isn’t true. Put two armed camps next to each other and you not only get the region at war constantly, but the fallout of those wars causing political instability in other countries. If Palestine became obviously untenable with the only options being either leaving the region or assimilation into Israeli society as Arab Israelis, the entire thing will eventually settle down. Being a Palestinian Israeli will be perhaps a cultural affiliation, but it will be reduced to dances, food, the practice of Islam, etc. much like Souix still exist and accept that they exist only as a cultural enclave kept alive via song, dance, story, foods, and religion, but with no hope of a country of their own.
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