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Canada Federal Election 2025

Today is the day!

Poll aggregator: https://338canada.com/

Live results: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2025/results/

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Roughly, Canadian regions are divided as follows:

  • Quebec (Lower Canada)
  • Toronto-Montreal (Upper Canada)
  • Maritimes (Atlantic Canada- they'll argue they have distinct identities, and they do, but they're too small to be relevant here)
  • West (Everything Else)

Take US politics, remove all the checks and balances that prevent SF/NYC/DC from turning the US into a one-party state, and you have Canadian politics. It's a very simple country to understand.

  • fake france
  • fake NY
  • fake midwest
  • fake seattle

If you're going to do it this way you need to include fake Texas.

Probably helpful to keep in mind that a big chunk of the population operates under an even simpler system: World Class City and Rest Of Canada.

And they know they're fake, and they're very, very self-conscious about being fake.

Personally I mentally separate the West and BC. When people talk about "the West" they are not talking about Coquitlam.

BC is split between "Left Coast" and "Western Canada", with the former having a higher population, but the latter covering more area.

If you want a breakdown of the situation in BC you have but to look at the election map- notice how, much like some states, the small city runs more or less roughshod over the rest of the province.

It didn’t necessarily used to be that way, but it is that way now, functionally permanently; turns out city vs. everyone else is a strong local maximum for the city.

The GVRD might as well be its own province at this point; it creates the same problems for the rest of BC that Ottawa does for all of Canada.