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PaperclipPerfector  4d ago (text post)   18598 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of July 14, 2025

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I'm a doomer on the U.S., and I want to know what you guys think, in general, will be the trend for the next decade or further on. Here's my theory for how all this ends:

  • Politically, conflict theory has totally won. Extremists from both parties keep trying to outdo each other. This can lead to outright civil war or government breakdown down the line. Democracies all around the globe host more and more unhappy populations that, no matter which politicians they vote in, never seem to get what they want, leading them to vote in more and more strange and radical candidates.
  • Government spending will never recede. Too many groups need to stay satisfied with their welfare, otherwise the party that cuts them will never win an election again. This will lead to an eventual collapse, someday, with more and more economic pain as time goes on and as less productive people exist to support the invalids and growing number of leeches.
  • Dating sucks and gender relations are likely going to get worse as the social media experiment continues, to South Korea levels. It can only get worse from here.
  • As someone mentioned downthread, I could easily see status becoming harder and harder to get, as the players in the game optimize towards the most awful way to live: constant striving in every arena. Anyone left playing the game is a tiger mom. This is the one I'm least sure about, but it could change rapidly as economic circumstances shift.
  • I have no idea if the country will fail slow or fast, but it will likely decline in the next decade by a noticeable amount.

My friend is more of an optimist. Here's his theory on the first one:

  • Eventually, one party is going to realize their extremists never win races. They elect a moderate. Things normalize, politically.

Unfortunately, I didn't quiz him on all the rest of it. But now, somehow, it is making me wonder about the outlook of most of the Mottizens. I certainly see the doomer take on things pretty often.

I see a factoid sometimes that says conservatives are happier with their lives than liberals. Maybe that's a factor of rural living, maybe that's a factor of less thinking about serious issues, and less reading. I am pretty sure that conservatives on this site, on average, do not live in rural areas and, on average, think a lot more about serious issues, and read more. So maybe some bad, anecdotal science testing on The Motte is in order.

Are you a doomer, or a "bloomer"? What are some factors that lead you to your conclusion that the country is trending downwards or upwards? Please explain yourself, and please fight it out with everyone who thinks you're wrong.

I’m a soft doomer about the US but much less so than I am about (Western) Europe.

Mass immigration has seen fit to proffer the United States a gentle decline toward a high-inequality, mid-tier country with Some Third World Characteristics but probably with semi-functioning politics and many centers of high economic and industrial development. What is coming for Belgium, France, the Netherlands, Germany, Austria, Sweden, Britain, and increasingly also Spain, Ireland and Italy is much, much worse than that.

many centers of high economic and industrial development

So the East and West Coasts, particularly the West Coast, propped up by cheap serf immigrant labour? Spots throughout the rest of the country like the tech hubs in Texas of Austin and Dallas also doing great? Sure, a lot of the country is sliding into decline, but The Economy is going gangbusters through a mix of the giant tech sector massively outperforming everything else and skewing things that way (if AI works out the way everyone is betting their shirt on it working) and the world is still using the US dollar as currency of choice. Yeah, lower middle-class to middle middle-class you can't buy meat anymore and you're living sixteen to a four bedroom house to make rent, but GDP is booming, the market is sky-high, if you own stocks you're okay, so shut up about the economy, stupid!

I could well see that happening.

The average household has 2.0 people in it. There might be people living with fifteen roommates, but this is very much not typical.

This anecdote isn't intended as commentary on what you wrote, but I feel like sharing.

My area is full of big homes occupied by single retirees and tiny apartments occupied by families. Somehow, whether due to regulation or tax nonsense or what have you, there doesn't seem to be a way of fixing this. Maybe when the boomers really start to die en masse it'll work out.

Actually something I've seen a few times is married boomers who are still 'together' but each live in their own full sized homes near each other as they simply find that more pleasant. Blew my mind the first time but it keeps coming up.

You see this all the time in California. I know a boomer or two who has empty houses that he doesn't even rent out because he doesn't want to bother.

The tax situation for real estate in California is an incredibly sweet deal. Your tax basis is the valuation at purchase time with a yearly increase not to exceed inflation or 2%. Boomers are paying pennies in property tax on all their properties while people who buy a house now can pay ten thousand a year for an ""starter"" house. Another transfer from the productive to the retired.

I know a boomer or two who has empty houses that he doesn't even rent out because he doesn't want to bother.

Pretty much everyone I know personally who has rented out in the past would never rent out again. They'd much rather pay taxes on an empty house than deal with the potential for another tenant from Hell, and they've all dealt with at least one. And these were not people renting out cheap shacks, either.

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