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Notes -
China just chose the nuclear option:
TLDR:
China’s Ministry of Commerce just created an extra-territorial export-control net around rare earths and anything made with Chinese rare-earth technology. The bar is set extremely low, so this will ripple through EVs, wind, electronics, and defense supply chains worldwide.
(Assuming that this isn't a ploy designed to be a bargaining chip in order to get Trump to overturn export restrictions on advanced chips).
Now, while rare earths are very much not rare (though they do come from the earth, mostly), 90% of the actual processing happens in China, even if many deposits are elsewhere. Why is that the case? Well, rare-earth mining is not the most eco-friendly of industrial processes, and everyone else prefers it happen outside their backyards.
Just about every consumer and commercial electronic item is wrapped up in this. China dominates processing and magnet making, so the 0.1% trigger will catch a very large share of motors, drives, sensors, HDDs, speakers, drones, missiles, EVs, and wind-turbine components that contain NdFeB or SmCo magnets.
Assuming that a pleasant agreement isn't reached by Trump and Xi, this is going to do numbers on the trout population, and the economy. I don't even have to specify which economy, it's that global. It'll take years to onshore or friend-shore processing, even if deposits could ramp up to meet the demand. Really, I can't stress the chaos this will cause if the Chinese truly exercise their discretion, so we're going to have to strap in and see. Maybe nothing ever happens, maybe it does.
Hmm. Major questions for me are:
I wouldn't trust Europe to figure out a way to manufacture toilet paper really. Low cost manufacturing or processing just isn't their strong suit. Either way, no matter where it happens, it'll take a while to even begin to catch up with Chinese output.
I suppose a great deal hinges on how targeted China wants to be with the restrictions, and how capable other states are at circumventing them. A queer state of affairs, but we're setting a thief to catch another thief. If China sticks to crippling specific competitor industries, such as the automotive or military sectors then they should be able to do plenty of damage for little pain. I don't think they really care about the fridge magnet market.
I do wonder how easy it will be to... divert less valuable end-products elsewhere. Are we going to see children's toys selling at record rates so they can be stripped for parts?
Its funny you say that seeing as europe is the world leader in the production and export of toilet paper.
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My entire nation is screaming in pain RN.
Yes, from scraping your anus raw with barely processed wood. The best feature of TP is that the designers managed to make it turn red to let you know it was done!
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The big issue with processing rare earths is the pollution AFAIK so yes, Europe probably not a great place to start. Though I bet the Poles or somebody would be happy to stick some factories in a less-used area and reap the increased influence and military protection that comes with it.
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