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Notes -
China just chose the nuclear option:
TLDR:
China’s Ministry of Commerce just created an extra-territorial export-control net around rare earths and anything made with Chinese rare-earth technology. The bar is set extremely low, so this will ripple through EVs, wind, electronics, and defense supply chains worldwide.
(Assuming that this isn't a ploy designed to be a bargaining chip in order to get Trump to overturn export restrictions on advanced chips).
Now, while rare earths are very much not rare (though they do come from the earth, mostly), 90% of the actual processing happens in China, even if many deposits are elsewhere. Why is that the case? Well, rare-earth mining is not the most eco-friendly of industrial processes, and everyone else prefers it happen outside their backyards.
Just about every consumer and commercial electronic item is wrapped up in this. China dominates processing and magnet making, so the 0.1% trigger will catch a very large share of motors, drives, sensors, HDDs, speakers, drones, missiles, EVs, and wind-turbine components that contain NdFeB or SmCo magnets.
Assuming that a pleasant agreement isn't reached by Trump and Xi, this is going to do numbers on the trout population, and the economy. I don't even have to specify which economy, it's that global. It'll take years to onshore or friend-shore processing, even if deposits could ramp up to meet the demand. Really, I can't stress the chaos this will cause if the Chinese truly exercise their discretion, so we're going to have to strap in and see. Maybe nothing ever happens, maybe it does.
Obviously the best solution for the US is to bring all of these capabilities in-house (to one degree or another) but the funniest solution would just be to say "these Chinese have made their ruling, let them enforce it" and then buy secondhand from India, same way the Russians have been getting around our sanctions.
It happened before. SR71s were made using Soviet titanium. Schemes involving 3rd world shell companies.
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Actually, the best solution would be for the US to perform a magic ritual, invoking Moloch and begging him to supply them with rare earth metals in exchange for sacrificed children - which is more likely to succeed than your proposal. The USA isn't actually capable of replacing China's role in the productive economy in any timeframe that's actually relevant. Do you think the tech and defence industries can sustain a complete pause in production for the 10-15 years it'll take to onshore this stuff? This means no more harddrives, no more lithium batteries etc.
If the defense industries can't function without Chinese support then they're useless and should be destroyed. What were they planning to do if war with China ever came?
You're actually completely correct here, and the failure to actually do this is one of the reasons that the USA is experiencing so many problems due to obscenely bloated military budgets, corrupt government and deeply corrupt procurement practices.
They either underestimated the Chinese and believed the world would stay the same as it was forever, or they simply assumed that they would have left the country and already made their fortune by the time their shitty decisions came home to roost. It sounds like an incredibly stupid and shortsighted decision, but military corruption doesn't go away even when you're several years into an active conflict - see https://news.liga.net/en/all/news/sbi-officer-sent-to-spin-shawarma-in-pokrovskyi-district-instead-of-service for a recent case.
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They exist elsewhere on the planet. It’s not like it’s impossible. Furthermore, the long term benefits of getting REE and bringing home the manufacturing of chips especially for defense are getting those critical components out from under the thumb of a geopolitical rival, creating jobs that would be decent paying manufacturing jobs, creating an industry with the potential for export. Those are not trivial wins, especially if China decides to wield its power in ways we oppose. If China makes a play for Taiwan, do you really think they’ll continue to sell us the material, let alone the chips themselves that we’d use to defeat them? Would any sane person in the Cold War feel comfortable sourcing critical components from Eastern Europe? That’s pretty much where we are, hoping that China will continue to sell us weapons that they know in a hot war we’re going to use on them.
All of the resources required for me to build a new set of Great Pyramids exist elsewhere on the planet - it's not like it's impossible for me to build them. But it still won't happen.
These are all incredibly good things, and you're right that this would be a huge win. In fact, there's actually a great case study for a country in a similar position - China's helium industry. Previously, China was utterly dependent upon the US for helium supply, because helium is used in a bunch of essential industrial/medical processes. Because they didn't want to be dependent upon a geopolitical rival for a vital resource, they invested heavily in alternative supply chains and alternative processes, discovering new ways to source and efficiently use helium. They now only get 5% of their helium from the US, which is why they're now in a position to start cutting the US off from vital industrial inputs without as much fear of retaliation. It took them several years, but it was a really worthwhile project - bit of a shame that the US doesn't have the several years required to reshore all this stuff.
Pretty much - except that they have just decided to not sell the US the weapons they know will be used against them. The US hasn't recovered their stocks of interceptors since they spent vast quantities of them against Russia and Iran, and now it looks like they won't be able to replenish those stocks until after they defeat China (good luck!).
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I would agree. If rare earths are essential for the defense industry, shouldn't they already be sourced only from domestic companies? If we rely on China for them, that's a problem that needs solving, not a way to get cheap materials.
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It's not an either/or, the US can pursue onshoring as a permanent long-term solution while pursuing other avenues in the interim.
Replacing China's worldwide economic production isn't necessary; what the US ideally needs to be able to do is fulfill domestic national security needs. Nevertheless, it's worth noting that the US (re)opened a single rare earth mine in 2018 and in a couple of years it supplied 15% of worldwide production.
First off, it does not. It means the Chinese are putting regulations on export. If you read the article it suggest the Chinese will likely ban exports to defense companies. So yes, I suspect the tech and defense industries will actually be able to source harddrives, lithium batteries, etc. for the next 5 - 10 years.
Why? Well, setting aside the fact that the US actually has at least some rare earth mining and refining capability in-country (and is currently, as I understand it, in the process of building more, so 7 - 10 years to have at least some replacement for Chinese goods is probably pessimistic even if you don't assume the US invokes national security to cut through red tape), I'd just remind you that Russia has been able to source actually embargoed items for its military from Western sources despite the US having a much better ability to deploy soft and hard power worldwide to sanction them than China does to sanction the US. If the Chinese move to cut US defense firms out of the loop, that
There is almost no big USA company that has not some DoD contracts.
I suspect this will make it harder, not easier, for the Chinese to enforce the rule, unless they actually intend to cut all trade of rare earth with the US (which is not what they are saying, as I understand it).
Either way, if the US wants to get stuff, and the Chinese are Serious About It, they probably won't go to the Chinese and say "hi yes we want to put these rare earths in our stealth bombers" they will use third party cut-outs in other nations, just like they did the last time the US needed rare metals from its main geopolitical rival/Communist totalitarian enemy.
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