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Notes -
Czech Parliamentary Elections of 2025
On 3rd and 4th of October there were Parliamentary Elections in the Czech Republic. As I was too busy IRL to even place bets, I have decided to do a results review. It has gotten a little late for that also. But today is our Independence Day so I decided to celebrate by writing about our elections.
First and foremost Czech Republic is a parliamentary democracy - think Germany, not US or France. The president is not as important as the Prime minister. So of all the elections these ones probably matter the most as the 200 elected individuals will vote on who will be the members of the next cabinet.
Second, a caveat: I voted for ODS, always had and likely will in the foreseeable future. I will not try to claim that I am impartial. But I will also add that a lot of their voters vote out of civic duty to vote for “lesser evil”. Even though they are angry at many things they did.
Third, some interesting features that may or may not become important later. In order to get into the Parliament your party has to get at least 5% of the vote. Any less and you don't get any seats. Third b) while the word coalition is typically used when forming a cabinet to describe the several parties working together (achieving 50% for one party is mostly unexpected), it is also used as a synonym for electoral alliance. This is interesting because it used to be that a two party coalition had to have 10%, three party 15% etc. But the limits were lowered a bit. And this year the Constitutional Court (basically Supreme Court) said it is OK to cheat it by having candidates from both (or more parties) in one party’s list of candidates. And these are especially interesting as each voter can give 3 preferential votes for individual people. This means that inside these electoral coalitions there is fierce competition.
Now I will try to break down the relevant parties. As you will see, they do not easily break down into traditional left-right divides and I hope some of these combinations will confuse you.
ANO
ANO (literally YES, from the original slogan ‘Yes, it will get better!’). This is a party of Andrej Babiš. He is described as a businessman. While technically true he got rich during Privatization (after the fall of communism the government owned businesses were sold, given to people etc.) likely due to some insider info from his work during communist regime. And his main business is in agriculture (Agrofert) - that is he is heavily reliant on subsidies. Fun fact: his net worth was estimated higher than Trump’s when he was in office and Trump was out. This has likely reversed, totally coincidentally, during the years when he was out of office…
Why am I talking about him and not the political party? Well it is his party, sometimes jokingly described as the political division of Agrofert. And it is also important to understand this party's politics. On wikipedia it is described as right wing or right wing populist. And populist it for sure is. Most easily characterized by his hard critical stance on the EU at home on television while being part of the most basic EU group (ALDE) in EU parliament. This makes sense as he needs to cause no problems lest the EU may stop its funds into the Czech Republic. But he also needs to pander to his euroskeptic voters to have power locally.
But I would describe it as left-wing because he is for more government involvement. E.g. his party is very strong among old people collecting pensions. And pensions are paid (semi-)directly by the government (a relic of communism as no one had the balls to reform it in the last 30 years). He is for increasing pensions, increasing bunch of other spending while magically not needing to make taxes higher. This magic is called government debt… Strongly for Andrej Babiš, and for EU and NATO at least in actions.
SPOLU
SPOLU (literally TOGETHER) is a coalition of 3 parties.
ODS
ODS (Občanská Demokratická Strana, in english: Civic Democratic Party) is a liberal-conservative party (wikipedia lists only conservatism). I would have described them as a mix between GOP and Democrats. This party alone probably has members that have positions of mainstream politicians in the US from both parties. It is probably the only party that at least pays lip service to the economic right wing. But it sometimes feels a little toothless - especially in the now ending cabinet. Strongly for NATO, for Ukraine and for (but critical of) the EU.
KDU-ČSL
KDU-ČSL (Křesťanská a demokratická unie – Československá strana lidová, in english Christian and Democratic Union – Czechoslovak People's Party) is THE Christian party for czech voters. I would have described them as Christian Center (maybe even Left, wikipedia says centre to centre-right…). They hover around the 5% necessary for electibility but manage to get excellent results thanks to very loyal voters and large party membership. For the EU (part of the European People’s Party), for NATO and for Ukraine.
TOP 09
TOP 09 (Tradice Odpovědnost Prosperita, lit. 'Tradition Responsibility Prosperity; honestly I doubt most people know this) emerged as an offshoot of KDU-ČSL in 2009. Personally it feels like ODS but significantly more pro EU. And paying even less if any lip service to economic right. It is sometimes described as a party for “city liberals” (or in Czech: “Prague Cafe”). It is also hovering around 5%.
STAN
STAN (Starostové a nezávislí, in english: Mayors and Independents; also coincidentally meaning TENT) is a party that originated from local politics. On wikipedia it is described as center to center-right. Very for the EU, for NATO, for Ukraine. But they feel more center-left. Mainly because their leader takes the issue with muslim immigrant criminality in neighboring countries lightly. I honestly believe that a lot of their voters think about them as much more right than they truly are in practice.
Pirates
Piráti (Czech Pirates Party) is described as center to center-left on wikipedia. And they are basically progressives and liberals. Very for the EU, less enthusiastically for NATO and for Ukraine. They were trying hard to make themselves seem normal and not too progressive. But they put some Greens in their List of candidates. (See the Constitutional Court approved hack). And Greens are a party absolutely no one cares about - except maybe journalists.
Motoristé
Motoristé sobě (Motorists for Themselves, abbr. AUTO, yes literally meaning CAR) is a new party. As the name suggests they are basically anti Green Deal. Especially against ban on motor vehicles with combustion engines, against ETS2 and a lot of other weird EU shenanigans. They are, as the name suggests, a half-meme party. Their Leader (Filip Turek) is a redpill/alpha male podcaster type. He did a Nazi Salute from a car, collects SS knives and has terrible humor on social media. Other significant members tried to pivot (successfully I think) to be perceived as economic right-wing, made sure that criticism of the EU is not perceived as a way of trying to sway to Russia but rather trying to be more like the USA. And trying to brand themselves as harder (more old-school?) ODS - conservative, euroskeptic, economically liberal but also firmly placed in western institutions like NATO and EU. Instead of being perceived as SPD 2
SPD
SPD (Svoboda a přímá demokracie, Freedom and Direct Democracy; not to be confused with German SPD) is described as far-right by Wikipedia and it is led by half-Korean from Japan… Tomio Okamura. I am ok with it being described as far right. You obviously can't expect any form of economic right. Their position is in the opposition where they complain that the government is not doing enough for its people… So they are definitely for bigger government. But otherwise they are anti-immigration, eurosceptic, etc… Their issue is - lack of quality people. Cynically I would say that Tomio Okamura is in it for the money. And similarly to ANO, there is no opposition inside the party to him. I personally doubt that he even wants to be part of the cabinet. He just wants to be in the opposition, complain a lot about the issues and collect a paycheck. I think he must know that while he can complain about the issues he might not have any good solutions. For a referendum about EU membership (that's where the direct democracy comes from) maybe even NATO. But as there is no demand for the referendum elsewhere even if they would be held I do not think it would endanger our membership. Not anti-Ukraine per se but “for Czechs” that likely means cutting support for Ukraine as it is deemed unnecessary. And some of its voters may be explicitly for Russia but their members exclaim at most, some kind of ambivalent position… BTW in fear of losing relevance they put some other small national parties (with no chance of getting 5%) on their list of candidates.
Stačilo!
Stačilo! (Enough!) are left to far left according to wikipedia… They are COMMUNISTS. Literally. Self-described. Not some “postmodern marxists” but the same party that ruled here during communism… Ok well technically it is a coalition (using the hack approved by court, so they only need 5%) of traditional (now irrelevant, because their voters were taken by ANO) left wing party ČSSD (and their of-shoot Social Democracy) and several other irrelevant left-wing parties. But it is lead by KSČM (Komunistická strana Čech a Moravy, Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia) that is also described by left-wing to far-left by wikipedia. Now come on! If there is some party that is unambiguously far left it may be the party that ruled here during communism. The leader of this “party” is Kateřina Konečná. She is quite capable of compromise both in EU parliament and in creating this unified left-wing block. Funnily enough it is said that if Czech businesses need something with EU parliament she is a go to person.
Probably the only party that seriously questions NATO membership. Not as seriously questioning EU membership. Ambivalent in the Ukraine - Russia conflict. Before the war they would present as more for Russian (likely due to nostalgia for Soviet times) but since then they have mellowed. Definitely far-left, definitely not progressive, some would even say conservative.
Results
Who would you choose in such a varied landscape? Well the Czechs chose as follows:
The big message of these results is that the Czech voter saw (rebranded) communists polling at 6-7% and said ABSOLUTELY FUCKING NOT and cast a vote for someone else. This is one thing that gives me optimism for the future. Now the votes cast may not have been the wisest but the results are OK. I will list who are the losers and winners of these elections, further trajectory and (most importantly) who will be making the next cabinet and what to expect from it.
Losers
Performed as expected
STAN, TOP09 and in some sense KDU-ČSL
Winners
Since ANO has only 80 seats it will need a partner to form a cabinet. Or at least someone who will vote for their minority cabinet. I am not sure what Andrej Babiš was hoping for but my biggest fear was ANO + SPD + stačilo!. It may seem unlikely because it is far-right + far-left but I definitely saw it as a possibility. Right now there is really only one possibility: ANO + SPD + AUTO. As the so called demo-block (“democratic parties”), ODS, KDU-ČSL, TOP09, STAN, and Pirates, are all opposed to working with ANO. And ANO is opposed to working with them. SPOLU’s entire brand is to be anti-Babiš. Worked great last time when he was prime minister. Not so much now.
The current prime minister Petr Fiala, leader of ODS and SPOLU, has already said he plans to give up his position as the leader and ODS will vote on new leaders early next year. We will see what wing of ODS will take power next. But I feel a lot of members feel like Motoristé should not exist - these should be voting for ODS. Personally I feel that the SPOLU brand is coming to an end. This just makes ODS more like TOP09 and that party is hovering under 5%. I expect a shift toward more conservatism and more economically right wing policies and especially more euroscepticism.
Did not hear similar sentiments from KDU-ČSL or TOP09, their voting on their leaders is early next year or late this year. But both were quite successful but there may be other wings in their parties who may think otherwise. STAN will likely stay on course. Similarly Pirates - their current and ex leader worked in unison these elections and the results are ok. So there is unlikely to be any dissenting view demanding the leaders give up their positions. But I wonder if the other men, the ones that got skipped by women, will not become bitter. Quietly withdraw, lower their effort or leave the Pirate party.
So far the negotiations seem like the SPD have folded easily. Getting President of the Chamber of Deputies for Tomio Okamura and some "independent experts” (that is ones approved by ANO but also SPD) for 3 ministries. Seemed liked ok as they do not feel very strong and may have internal issues on deciding who should be nominated. But the ministries are:
And Motoristé seem to be able to negotiate following ministries:
And ANO gets to keep:
I will conclude that I do not have high expectations of this newly forming cabinet. I will likely not be proven wrong. Membership in NATO and EU is not endangered. I welcome some amount of euroscepticism, though I doubt Babiš is strong enough to do more than to complain. We will likely get into more debt (we had even in this current cabinet). But Motorists are presenting themselves as winners and hopefully this will at least a little influence the cabinet to not be totally socialist. We will see how hard they can negotiate with ANO or how serious they are about what they say.
Apologies for such a long post, had I had more time I would have shortened it. Questions are welcome, and so is criticism of my characterization of people or parties, grammar, or formatting.
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Ireland has a new President, the outspoken leftist Catherine Connolly.
I'm less interested in talking about her politics (which I find enormously distasteful) than describing what a circus the election turned out to be. With a meagre three candidates on the ballot (one of whom had formally pulled out too late for his name to be taken off), it was down to Connolly and the boring neoliberal centrist candidate, Heather Humphreys. Turnout was nearly two points higher than the most recent presidential election in 2018, with 45.8% of the electorate (or ~1.65m people) going down to the polls. Results were as follows:
You may notice that the three figures listed above do not add up to 1.65m/100%. That's because the real story of this election is that about 214k people (nearly thirteen per cent of those who voted) elected to spoil their votes rather than vote for any of the candidates. (In the last Presidential election in 2018, only 1.2% of people did so.) In some cases these voters wrote in "Maria Steen" (who sought a candidacy but did not succeed) or "Conor McGregor" (whose efforts to seek a candidacy seemed entirely performative). In other cases these voters wrote political slogans on their ballots, such as "she was only 10", in reference to a young girl who was sexually assaulted by a 26-year-old asylum seeker earlier this week, leading to riots on a comparable scale to those of November '23 outside an asylum centre in west Dublin. One enterprising individual in Cork decided to spoil his ballot in the most literal possible sense of the term. Personally, I couldn't bring myself to give a first preference to either candidate, so simply wrote on the ballot that there were no candidates I felt represented me.
While I remain relieved that Conor McGregor's name was kept off the ballot, Connolly's tenure in the role troubles me. The best-case scenario is that she spends her first year engaging in some grandstanding before quietly settling down and treating her role as the ceremonial sinecure it is. The worst-case scenario is that, when meeting with Trump, she openly attacks him on his immigration policy and support for Netanyahu, and Trump immediately slaps Ireland with a massive tariff as reprimand for her impudence. Even if she's smart enough not to go that far, the Irish president cannot travel abroad in an official capacity without the express approval of the government: Éamann Mac Donnchada is concerned that, should one of her requests for a "fact-finding mission" to Gaza be vetoed (as it inevitably will), Connolly will start a knife-fight on social media which will embarrass the government and bring the office of president into disrepute. The current incumbent (Michael D. Higgins) does not differ greatly from Connolly in his attitude to the Palestinian cause, but credit where credit is due: he never overstepped himself, so far as I can recall.
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I see there's a lot of ramp up against Venezuela. What I am not so sure about is what is the actual demand from US/Trump to Venezuela? I mean, do they just want to get rid of Maduro and are building up for that, no matter what, or do they want Venezuela to do something specific, and if they do it, everything goes away? If so, is there a good list of which thing(s) I could read?
If it's about Maduro, what's the endgame there? I mean, getting rid of him personally and his close circle is probably very doable, but then what? I thought MAGA wasn't very eager for nation-building and spreading democracy and all that stuff - that's more neocon vibe on the right and globalist-reptilian New World Order fraction of the Left? And Trump is supposed to be a mortal enemy of both - so what's the thing that he's about to do in Venezuela then?
I believe Trump is sinking the ships in order to make a more convincing case that he can legally use the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 in detaining and ultimately deporting Venezuelan nationals. The act gives the president broad powers in detaining all foreign nationals over the age of 16 with nations the US is at war with. Here by claiming the VZ government is so corrupt, it allows drugs to depart its country and makes no efforts to stop them, the 'war' between the US and the cartels can include the compromised VZ government, and the powers of this act can be used by the president. I think the president thinks by using the military to accomplish these attacks his case for claiming this is a 'war' is strengthened, since they could have gone through the regular channels of boarding the vessel, collecting the evidence and having a trial if they were so inclined.
Doesn't he need to go to Congress to declare "war"? I mean US had performed "special military operations" without declaring a war for a number of times by now, and as long as it's not a prolonged engagement they pulled it off without much problem, but if you call it "war" then you'd need Congressional declaration of war?
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So I expect bombings against cartels or a commando raid at most, but no invasion.
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Trump Oil?
I'm a bit skeptical about "they are going to steal our
bodilyenergy fluids" given how many times this accusation has been leveraged baselessly. Venezuela does have oil, but I don't think they refuse to sell it? And in fact it is going quite well despite the sanctions (same story as Russia) and I am not sure taking over another shithole and being on hook for whatever happens there is actually cheaper than just buying the oil. That said, removing Maduro, so that the proceeds from the sale of the said oil won't go to wrong causes, may be an improvement - the problem is ensuring whoever comes next isn't the same or worse.My understanding is Rubio is both in charge and has a detailed understanding of the region (and has been killing it down there). If I had to guess (based off of no particular special knowledge other) our move is in response to the oil dispute with Guyana.
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What are chances of a sudden, catastrophic deterioration in the situation in Northern Ireland? I don’t have any actual reported facts to back me up, but I just get a bad insidious feeling about it.
Honestly, at this point I think a reescalation of Troubles-era hostilities is profoundly unlikely. I think it's more likely that the Catholics and Protestants set aside their differences in order to more effectively fight their common enemy: Romanian immigrants.
Unfortunately it seems like Real IRA has drunk Sinn Fein’s Flavor-Aid and they support infinity immigrants as much as any brunch-going liberal. UVA/UDF definitely doesn’t like immigration. Both parties are more concerned with selling crack than political issues at the moment. In practice Northern Ireland is 98 percent white, because if you wanted to live in a third world country filled with mad jihadists you could just stay in Syria.
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I'm curious what scale response The Troubles or even 80s / early 90s style IRA / UVF / UDA attacks against those immigrants would bring. Would it bring just condemnation or would the UK government actually deploy army troops there?
Similar to the Southport Riots, I think - mass arrests, dogs, anyone who expresses any support online goes straight to jail.
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