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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   29311 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of February 6, 2023

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Did the US blow up the Nord Stream Pipeline?

https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream

That was linked to me and it appeals to my sense of - conspiracy? warmongering? ... But I also don't really understand if it could be true.

What's the consensus here about the pipeline?

(I don't really even care if we discuss the article, it's long and I don't know who the person is - just interested in all kinds of thoughts)

No.

Big prior against the US explicitly blowing up energy infrastructure. Bigger prior against the evidence only showing up on a random Substack. Sets off my “epistemic learned helplessness” flags.

I’d change my mind if mainstream outlets can point to a smoking gun.

I really don't like the rat-adjacent obsession with the idea of "priors". It's just a fancy way of saying "I believe X" or "I don't believe X" and acting like that somehow means the burden of proof is on the opposition.

I’d change my mind if mainstream outlets can point to a smoking gun.

Sure much like with the Twitter Files, it'll be a conspiracy theory until it becomes undeniable, at which point we'll hear "this is nothing new, why are you talking about it?".

the difference between prior assumptions and beliefs is that priors are expected to update or change with new info whereas beliefs tend to be much closer to permanent. Its a way for people to say "i currently believe X but i'm not married to the conclusion" in fewer words.

That said its also the designated socially acceptable space to traffic obvious personal bias into an otherwise ratty conversation, so i do understand being annoyed by it. "those aren't my unsupported dogmatic opinions, those are just my priors"

It's funny because netstack was basically saying "I believe the US will never blow up energy infrastructure" and "I don't believe in evidence from substack."

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