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PaperclipPerfector  5d ago (text post)   17847 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of February 16, 2026

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So the US Supreme Court struck down most (all?) of Trump's tariffs in a 6-3 ruling, ruling that its use exceeded the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. This appears to have largely been done under the major questions doctrine, the idea that if Congress wants to delegate the power to make decisions of vast economic or political significance, it must do so clearly. The majority ruling is that Trump's attempt to claim and leverage emergency powers overstepped this, plus doubtless other nuances I'm not noting. The Court also opened an entirely different set of worms, as it did not adjudicate if the tariff revenue that had been collected has to be refunded, or even who a refund would go to. I predict great long !lawyer bills~ debates over how, if tariffs are taxes on Americans, which Americans are owed the tax refunds.

(Do I predict the Trump administration will try to use this as a basis to give money to the electorate in a totally-not-buying-votes-before-mid-terms scheme? No, but I think it would be funny if political bedfellows put Democrats on the side of big business importers who will make claims on the refunds even if they passed on costs to American consumers.)

Trump will reportedly make comments soon. While this will be a major policy loss for the Trump administration, and promises to make the next many months 'interesting,' part of my curiosity is what this ruling might hold (or have held) for other court cases in the dockets, there will also be significant geopolitical reflections on this for months and years to come. This ruling wasn't entirely a surprise, and various countries (and the European trade block) had been hedging in part to let the court case play out. We'll see where things go from here, particularly since not all Trump tariff threats were derived from the IEEPA, and so there will probably be some conflation/confusion/ambiguity over various issues.

While I will defer to others for the legalese analysis, I am also interested in what sorts of quid-pro-quos the internal court politics might have had for Roberts to have led the majority here. There are a host of cases on the docket this term, with politically-relevant issues ranging from mail-in ballots to redistricting. While I think the tariffs case was outside any typical 'we accept this case in exchange for accepting that case' deal over which cases get heard, I will be interested if the administration gets any 'surprise' wins.

For longer commentary from Amy Howe of the SCOTUS Blog-

In a major ruling on presidential power, the Supreme Court on Friday struck down the sweeping tariffs that President Donald Trump imposed in a series of executive orders. By a vote of 6-3, the justices ruled that the tariffs exceed the powers given to the president by Congress under a 1977 law providing him the authority to regulate commerce during national emergencies created by foreign threats.

The court did not weigh in, however, on whether or how the federal government should provide refunds to the importers who have paid the tariffs, estimated in 2025 at more than $200 billion.

The law at the center of the case is the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, known as IEEPA, which authorizes the president to use the law “to deal with any unusual and extraordinary threat, which has its source in whole or substantial part outside the United States, to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States, if the president declares a national emergency with respect to such threat.” A separate provision of the law provides that when there is a national emergency, the president may “regulate … importation or exportation” of “property in which any foreign country or a national thereof has any interest.”

The dispute at the center of Friday’s opinion began last year, when Trump issued a series of executive orders imposing the tariffs. Lawsuits filed by small businesses and a group of states, all of which say that they are affected by the increased tariffs, were filed in the lower courts, which agreed with the challengers that IEEPA did not authorize Trump’s tariffs. But those rulings were put on hold, allowing the government to continue to collect the tariffs while the Supreme Court proceedings moved forward.

In a splintered decision on Friday, the Supreme Court agreed with the challengers that IEEPA did not give Trump the power to impose the tariffs. “Based on two words separated by 16 others in … IEEPA—‘regulate’ and ‘importation’—the President asserts the independent power to impose tariffs on imports from any country, of any product, at any rate, for any amount of time,” Chief Justice John Roberts wrote. “Those words,” he continued, “cannot bear such weight.” “IEEPA,” Roberts added, “contains no reference to tariffs or duties.” Moreover, “until now no President has read IEEPA to confer such power.”

In a part of the opinion joined by Justice Neil Gorsuch and Justice Amy Coney Barrett, Roberts said that Trump’s reliance on IEEPA to impose the tariffs violated the “major questions” doctrine – the idea that if Congress wants to delegate the power to make decisions of vast economic or political significance, it must do so clearly. “When Congress has delegated its tariff powers,” Roberts said, “it has done so in explicit terms, and subject to strict limits,” a test that Trump’s tariffs failed here.

The court’s three Democratic appointees – Justices Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, and Ketanji Brown Jackson – joined another part of the Roberts opinion, holding that Trump’s tariffs were also not supported by the text of IEEPA. “The U.S. Code,” Roberts noted, “is replete with statutes granting the Executive the authority to ‘regulate’ someone or something. Yet the Government cannot identify any statute in which the power to regulate includes the power to tax.”

Justice Brett Kavanaugh wrote the main dissent, which was joined by Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito. In his view, Trump had the authority under IEEPA to impose the tariffs because they “are a traditional and common tool to regulate importation.” Moreover, he suggested, although “I firmly disagree with the Court’s holding today, the decision might not substantially constrain a President’s ability to order tariffs going forward … because numerous other federal statutes authorize the President to impose tariffs and might justify most (if not all) of the tariffs at issue in this case.”

Kavanaugh also warned that “[i]n the meantime, however, the interim effects of the Court’s decision could be substantial. The United States may be required to refund billions of dollars to importers who paid the IEEPA tariffs, even though some importers may have already passed on costs to consumers or others.”

(And apologies to @Gillitrut, who posted while I was drafting this.)

Another win for the free market, another win for the free people.

Kavanaugh also warned that “[i]n the meantime, however, the interim effects of the Court’s decision could be substantial. The United States may be required to refund billions of dollars to importers who paid the IEEPA tariffs, even though some importers may have already passed on costs to consumers or others.”

I seem to recall the argument for why they didn't need to grant a stay on the tariffs was that resolving them after would be easy. (Edit, yes they did claim this and they were very certain about it too) Did something change in the meantime or was that claim a lie? But even more so the argument doesn't make much sense to begin with "they shouldn't have to return stolen money because it would be difficult" just encourages stealing more money.

There is a simple solution to this, President Trump could try to get his tariff agenda passed in Congress. Unfortunately for him we all know this won't happen in part because many of his fellow Republicans don't support it and won't put their name to a pro tariff bill because the people do not want it

This is a win for American democracy, where a single election does not give full permission for every unpopular idiosyncracy and niche policy a politician wants. They must convince the others. A point that justice Gorsuch makes himself

I seem to recall the argument for why they didn't need to grant a stay on the tariffs was that resolving them after would be easy. Did something change in the meantime or was that claim a lie? But even more so the argument doesn't make much sense to begin with "they shouldn't have to return stolen money because it would be difficult" just encourages stealing more money.

Not having stopped this with a temporary injunction is a total fuckup on the SCOTUS part.

And of course any tariffs paid will have to be paid back, but the damage to the economy is already done.

There is a simple solution to this, President Trump could try to get his tariff agenda passed in Congress.

Of course, even that would not save him from having to pay back the tariffs people already paid, because anything else would be retroactive.

Of course, even that would not save him from having to pay back the tariffs people already paid, because anything else would be retroactive.

Theres no rule against retroactive tariffs and taxes, only retroactive criminal law.

Especially in the case where the retroactive change is meant to fix an issue with an existing tax. See https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/512/26

a win for American democracy

And specifically an advantage of it over Westminster systems, where the Executive is just the party with the most votes in the Legislature (even if a minority government) and actually have the power to impose retaliatory tariffs at the snap of their fingers.

I don't think a parliamentary system would typically find itself in this particular mess, where the executive wants to do something that he could not possibly find the votes for in the legislature.

That still often requires some amount of buy-in within the coalition (or additional support from outside when people within disagree) instead of just a single person getting to impose their personal will on every policy.

Another win for the free market, another win for the free people.

Another moment of absolute chaos, in which half-assed policies make it basically impossible for the hypothetical manufacturer looking to plan to produce goods in America to plan ahead and invest.

Luckily things are looking to be a bit more stable now at least. Admins typically put their best foot forward legally speaking so this one getting struck down greatly increases the likelyhood of other tariff arguments in the same manner, which we can assume are weaker than the best foot forward, getting struck too.

Trump might be able to find a more watered down version that does work, the same way Biden found a watered down form of student loan forgiveness but just the same it'll be watered down.

Speaking of chaos though, the admin is definitely going to try to make refunds a mess. And unfortunately even if they do it properly many Americans may now end up effectively double taxed due to paying tariff surcharges passed on by the importers and paying the refunds back for the illegal tariffs to those same importers. A lot of it going to Howard Lutnick's son whose firm has been buying up tariff refund privileges in exchange for immediate cash to handle the additional costs his father's actions helped cause!

Luckily things are looking to be a bit more stable now at least.

Not bloody likely. Trump is going to threaten to put tariffs on again, making very unclear when things will be settled.

Relatively more stable, at least until he starts arguing that him not liking someone's tone of voice is also a national security issue needing tariffs IG. But point being now that businesses can expect the more obviously BS tariffs to be struck down (even if it takes a while) it allows for a little bit more predictability.

Still absurdly chaotic, but 80 chaos is better than 100 chaos.

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