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Notes -
When does "criticism" of the current military action in Iran (and by criticism I mean a variety of behaviors from our political leadership to randoms on the internet) become "treason" (both in the firm prosecutable sort and the "historically your neighbors would have stopped talking to you or maybe chased you out of town" sort)?
I get it, people are mad at Trump, Republicans, America, the Jews, Israel, whatever.
I get it.
Many people would rather have had us not get here. But we are here. The ship has sailed.
If everyone returns to their corners now at the very least we have billions of dollars in economic dysfunction, realistically we have tremendous destabilization in the region which is going cause the biggest problems we've seen in decades. In truth, we call it all off now, Iran will probably finish arming themselves and nuke a civilian population, likely Israel. Even the most anti-semitic person who ever lived should be able to understand how bad doing that could go. It would likely be the worst thing that's ever happened just from the resulting chaos.
So we are stuck.
But you see a lot of people with an agenda trying to defang the war effort or get it cancelled or whatever. Many probably don't expect it to happen, they are just trying to set up Trump looking bad. An example of this is probably the war powers resolutions.
But at that point you have overt politicking putting American, Israeli, Middle Eastern lives (and maybe everyone else?) at risk because you want to slightly increase the chance you can spend two years repeatedly impeaching Trump.
I think that's kind of treasonous? Maybe not the executing kind, but definitely the "holy shit what are you doing kind."
Like the war. Hate the war. It's happened. Criticizing how we got here is understandable, but I think we need to be careful.
Make the PR bad enough and we stop with the job half done and everyone loses.
First - Trump will get Congress on board. He may have to pay yuuge price, but even the biggest doves and biggest morons in Congress know that US trying to overthrow regime and failing means the empire is over and there will be many more challengers in the years to come. There is reason why Russia is hellbent on finishing the SMO on their own terms. If you want to know how international relationships work - go watch the Godfather. So far USA haven't failed in overthrowing a regime after committing the needed forces.
Second - speaking against the special military operation is not treason.
Third - the best time to have dialogue about the war was before and during the protests. The second best was after them. The third best is now.
Fourth - the year is still young. There is chance that the US may actually win with low bodycount.
I feel like the US has lost plenty of times and been fine. Korea had an unsatisfactory stalemate (that still haunts us). Vietnam was a clear loss and retreat. Iraq and Afghanistan were immediate victories followed by long drawn out slogs that no one feels we "won" at.
The 1990 Gulf war was a victory of sorts, but that seems to have happened because we didn't get involved in regime change in Iraq at that time. Otherwise you have to go back to WWII for a clear victory.
Your specific phrase "overthrowing the regime" is kind of a strange victory condition. We have arguably already done that in Iran. Bunch of their leaders dead on day one. There might be a technical continuance of governance, but there is already going to be a different set of people in charge in Iran. And historically our attempts at regime change in the middle east have gone poorly. It's why no one wants us committed to a ground war.
The USA did not lose Vietnam, although the public thinks we did. America concluded(wrongly) that south Vietnam was capable of fending of a north Vietnamese invasion, and declined to bail them out when this turned out not to be the case- the republic of Vietnam was independent for several years without US troops or support, and the commies had promised not to invade in exchange for American withdrawal. Nixon and Kissinger surely knew that they would go back on this promise, but the ARVN fended off a full scale invasion without US support before reshuffling their general staff due to political turmoil and then losing the next round.
Vietnam is weird. People who are like "hurr hurr USA hasn't won a war since WW2" are obviously retarded.
But the USA fought a war for many years with the explicit goal of preventing South Vietnam from being communist. They then made assumptions the ARVN could stand on its own, which was a convenient assumption given the political unrest at home. Regardless of the assumption, they were wrong. You don't get points for saying "okay but at the time we really did believe it". They were wrong, and south Vietnam was taken over by the communists. The war that was fought, the lives that were spent, did NOT achieve the outcome. Full stop. I would call that a strategic loss, despite the numerous and overwhelming tactical victories. I think Clausewitz would agree.
Amusingly, I think this is actually the most important part in this context. Power is exercised much more about belief than kinetic force. That's much more efficient too. The belief of your kinetic power means it doesn't get tested. Once that belief starts to slip, it gets much harder to maintain your power. You still can, especially with lots of kinetic force, but that comes with many costs of its own. It's way way cheaper when everyone respects the big stick, using it a lot sucks, and if absolutely everyone says "fuck you, bring it" you can only hit so many of them...
Vietnam was a strategic loss, that’s true. But also the ARVN did stand on its own until political turmoil in the Republic of Vietnam caused coup-proofing shakeup in the army’s leadership post-US withdrawal, leading to a collapse of the front in the face of the north Vietnamese 1975 offensive- the ARVN had been highly successful with 0 direct US assistance for three years at that point. It would be like if Ukraine suddenly fired all its generals and put a rando in charge who proceeded to lose the war in a matter of weeks.
I know this isn't the point , but this made me chuckle
This would probably be accretive to Ukraine, and would 100% be accretive to Russia. These old-guard Soviet generals are so fucking bad.
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