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Notes -
Third Gulf War Negotiations Thread
As we approach the end of the 5 day pause(?) before the USA ramps up attacks again, reports are coming in that the Trump team has sent Iran a 15 point plan for peace. I don’t think the full text has been credibly made public at this time, as should be expected, but from what I’ve gathered the points can be reduced from redundant and detail points, Iran gives:
— Iran stops funding proxies abroad, especially Hamas and Hezbollah
— Iran pinky promises to never get a nuclear weapon, surrenders nuclear material, agrees to various future restrictions/inspections
— Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz
In exchange Iran gets:
— Full sanctions relief, including removal of the snapback provisions that removed sanctions would go back on Iran immediately if Iran violated the agreement
— American assistance with their civilian nuclear program.
Iran, after denying that negotiations were happening at all, has come back with the following demands:
— Bombing of Iran ends, assassination of Iranian officials ends, guarantees that it won’t start again
— Reparations
— Recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the strait of Hormuz
— They won’t negotiate with Steve and Jared, only with JD Vance
Trump has delayed bombing Iranian civilian infrastructure for this week, while Iran has let some ships through the strait as a gesture of good faith, or as Trump put it a “very expensive present.”
Now none of this is being reported clearly, and this all might be bullshit, and maybe one or both sides is engaging in distractionism.
But I’m filled with a deep sense of disquiet and defeat. The Iranian regime is rebuilt, reinforced, made more powerful. The Iranian regime is given new credibility, where before my diasporic friends could claim that with a push the rotten structure would collapse, now they know it will not. Iran gets effective, if not formal, sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran gets sanctions relief. Iran gives up more or less nothing, just some fissionable material that is easily enough replaced and a few proxies that have already been degraded. I don’t really credit the promises Iran is making here for much, especially if the snapback provision is removed.
Giving Iran anything after they close the Strait is tantamount to recognizing their sovereignty over it, de facto if not legally. Simply by asking for it, and then making a deal, Iran is going to be perceived as getting sovereignty over the strait. The USA, by accepting Iran's "gift" of letting ships through the strait, is already acknowledging that Iran has control of the strait! And this would be disastrous.
The flip side is that there’s little guarantee that the US would keep its promises in the future, but that doesn’t feel very good to me either. I’m not sure where I see the off-ramp at this point that isn’t a full invasion of Iran.
Another view is that given the conditions, this isn't really the Iran war, it's the Lebanon war and the Iran war is a sideshow and a distraction. The casualties are higher in Lebanon, there are troops on the ground in Lebanon, Israel is considering expanding its territory into Lebanon, occupation will inevitably result in settlements which will not be removed, etc. Perhaps the purpose of the Iran war never had anything to do with Iran herself, which is why the goals against Iran never seemed achievable, but were instead more local to protecting the Israeli homefront against Hezbollah. The USA distracts Iran and forces it to accept Hezbollah's defeat.
I suppose at least we’ll get good pistachios and saffron now? I’d love to see sanctions relief on a personal level, and I think sanctions are a wildly ineffective method of international relations, but on a geopolitical level this seems like the US admitting defeat.
It is beginning to look like the previous US presidents who for the most part did not bomb Iran were not just bleeding heart pacifists but had sound strategic reasons not to bomb them, and that attacking Iran was a mistake.
There is no quickload button in chess or international politics. If you make a mistake, you will find yourself in a worse situation than before.
Some strategic blunders come from noble motivations. For example, a (debatable sized) part of the motivation for the US-Afghanistan war was that the Taliban are terrible and nobody should be forced to live under their regime.
With Trump, there is not even a pretense of noble motivations. He was pretty open that the Venezuelan adventure was simply about securing their oil for the US, otherwise he does not give a fuck about who is in charge over there. Iran was just a desperate gamble to win the mid-terms.
Does the Iranian regime deserve to win this conflict? Fuck no.
But the US most certainly deserves to lose. Unlike Iran, their population had the luxury to elect the one who calls the shots. They picked Donald Trump out of all people, who turned out not to be a good steward of the American hegemony.
Do you still think that, now that political prisoners are being let go and foreign companies are starting to move back into Venezuela? Do you think that Venezuelans are better off now that the US is sitting on Delcy Rodriguez? Or not
The operation may have good consequences beyond oil whether or not Trump's sole motivation was oil.
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Rodriguez just made the erstwhile chief of the revolutionary secret police and notorious user of torture against regime enemies one of her top people and defense minister a few days ago.
Yeah it's complicated but if your appraisal is just "securing their oil" it's not clear you've thought about this seriously / outside the 24-second news cycle
Is the capex in the room with us right now?
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American oil companies are private, yes.
Oil company executives are political prisoners.
Foreign investment in oil infrastructure.
The opposition loves oil companies.
Oil companies are enemies of the state.
EDIT: A big difference between Venezuela and Iran is that capitalist “exploitation” of Venezuela’s resources will improve the lives of the people living there, but continuous US/Israeli air strikes and CIA/Mossad-backed civil unrest will not.
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