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PaperclipPerfector  4d ago (text post)   15326 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of March 23, 2026

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Yes, this war has not gone well for America, but that was hardly unexpected, there’s a reason no previous American president was dumb enough to do this, including HW and Jr. Disarming Hezbollah is equally flawed, Shias in Lebanon are loyal to it and will reform and rebuild it in whatever guise, whatever the case, and the country is too divided by sectarianism to stop them. I hesitate to say it’s over for Israel, it’s faced poor odds before, but the future certainly isn’t bright for it.

Yes, this war has not gone well for America, but that was hardly unexpected,

America has destroyed Iran's military and leadership and experienced a scant dozen casualties. In what sense has this war gone poorly?

Has it achieved any goals? At what cost?

I'd also score "we never really thought about what our goals are" as not achieving goals. Right now, the main goal seems to be an open Hormuz and stable markets... Which we had before the war started.

The war has definitely depleted Iranian munitions stockpiles (even if we assume that US efforts to strike those stockpiles were 0% effective, which they were not, and all of that depletion is from launching them at all and sundry.)

The US said that (besides self-defense) preventing Iran from projecting power and completing a nuclear weapon were its primary objectives on March 2.

Destroying their navy and missile inventory is a means of preventing Iran from projecting power.

Without inside knowledge of how effective US strikes are, what Iran's stockpiles look like, etc. I cannot tell exactly how effective this has been, but it definitely seems like Iran's ability to project power has been negatively impacted.

Okay. But "we got the Iranians to attack our allies with missiles" is not much of an achievement, or at least, it doesn't indicate on its own that the war is going particularly well.

You neglected eleven days ago to specify what kind of situation would make you say that the five week special operation is going poorly. Care to update that or do you feel that the war is basically already a success since our allies got bombed?

You neglected eleven days ago to specify what kind of situation would make you say that the five week special operation is going poorly.

I think you have me confused with Shakes. I'm gonna have to get a real pfp or something!

"we got the Iranians to attack our allies with missiles" is not much of an achievement

You know, when you put it like that, you would sort of think the hostile-to-Israel types around here would favor the war more, wouldn't you...

Anyway: I think the operation so far has made progress in its goals: Iranian regional influence has been blunted. However, so far, I have not seen any evidence that the US has yet maximally degraded the Iranian strike complex. Today's CENTCOM briefing assessed that over 2/3rds of Iran's military production capabilities have been destroyed, for instance, so it seems clear that even US public-facing assessments are that Iran's capabilities are degraded but not destroyed. It seems possible to me that the US could reach something much closer to a systematic destruction of their capabilities the course of additional weeks or perhaps even days, although I think the Iranians are adopting a reasonably savvy defensive posture. As I said, without nonpublic information it is difficult to evaluate.

Wait, Sarker, Shrike, and Shakes are three different people?

All I can say for certain is that we are three different Motte accounts!

Three Motters in a Trenchcoat?

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