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PaperclipPerfector  2d ago (text post)   13250 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of April 6, 2026

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IRAN WINS IRAN WAR

President Trump on Truth Social:

"Based on conversations with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, of Pakistan, and wherein they requested that I hold off the destructive force being sent tonight to Iran, and subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE! The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East. We received a 10 point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and consummated. On behalf of the United States of America, as President, and also representing the Countries of the Middle East, it is an Honor to have this Longterm problem close to resolution. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP"

Iran foreign minister Araghchi confirms the agreement.

  • No regime change

  • Assurances of "safe" passage through the strait of Hormuz, but no assurance of "free" passage.

  • Absolutely no mention of uranium, enrichment, or nuclear weapons.

  • No mention of proxies.

  • Possible sanctions relief.

This is a ludicrous assessment. Iran caved to Trump’s threats, and if they don’t give him what he wants the bombings will pick right back up in two weeks. Trump played a game of chicken, and Iran blinked first.

The best part about this ceasefire is how easy it is to spin in either direction. Everyone gets to feel like a winner!

"Iran has won, they've proven beyond a doubt that they hold the ultimate card, closing the straits. They made the USA come to the table and knock off the bombing."

"Iran has gotten cucked, we bombed them so hard they cracked and agreed to open the straits without us having to do anything but sit back and bomb them, so much for their leverage"

"Iran agreed to open the straits that were already open before this debacle" is a laughable spin attempt.

If there are actualll tolls imposed on and paid by ships, and a material amount of that money actually ends up in accounts the Iranians can control as they see fit, I would call an Iranian win. But that's a lot of "if this then that" to get that stream of cashflows into Iran.

Also we'll see what they give up on re: nuclear and missile programs.

We shall see!

This might be the first time I've seen someone actually engage in Zeno's paradox as an argument.

Zeno's paradox

I'm familiar with this paradox but unsure how it fits here

You said

But that's a lot of "if this then that" to get that stream of cashflows into Iran.

But your list of "a lot of ifs" seems mostly like dividing the single statement "if they toll the strait" into an infinite number of steps

If there are actual tolls imposed on and paid by ships, and a material amount of that money actually ends up in accounts the Iranians can control as they see fit...

You could add an arbitrary number of similar "if" statements into any payment of money for services. "If the money is paid in legal tender," "if traffic doesn't decrease significantly," "if the world remains dependent on fossil fuel exports from the gulf" etc

Ahh

I guess I was trying to differentiate between "what was said now in this deal no one should trust" and it actually happening at scale.

"Don't count your chickens" type situation.

Especially because the language of the ceasefire seemed that the money would be split by Iran/Oman and be used for fixing shit that got blown up. So it's not clear to me if Iran will even get any money, even though all the pro-Iran/Anti-USA people are all doing this face right now 🤑

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