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PaperclipPerfector  28d ago (text post)   989 thread views

Transnational Thursday for April 16, 2026

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Earlier today I heard an offhand remark that this year France has been rocked by a massive scandal in the Paris preschool system. What apparently happened: In January, France.TV network aired an investigative report "Cash Investigation". As a part of the report, the French TV audience saw covertly recorded video of poor training and poor supervision of daycare instructors and some seriously concerning misbehavior. Even more concerning is that after the show aired, reports of widespread sexual violence surfaced. Naturally, a major part of the scandal is an alleged cover-up: some parents had filed complaints earlier, but instead of investigating complaints, the city of Paris had shuffled the instructors to other day-care facilities. According to Le Monde, 78 instructors have been suspended, 31 instructors suspected of sexual violence.

Now here is the CW angle: because I heard about this from an off-hand comment through internet, I spent some time trying to find out more and find verifiable reporting. Curiously I could find barely any reporting in English-speaking media. It is apparently real scandal, but for some reason covered mostly in French media only. One Politico article turned up, about how the scandal was a factor in Paris mayoral race in March. French sources: Le Monde, in French Radio France International, in English. Searching this on Google, I find much more older reports about scandals in Catholic schools, such as Bétharram, but this appears bigger, as it is not limited to a single school.

covertly recorded video of poor training and poor supervision of daycare instructors and some seriously concerning misbehavior

I mean, they have actual daycare, actual instructors, they even have training (a poor one, but still) and they are complaining? Sweet summer children. They obviously never saw the real Quality Learing.

On the other hand, if there weren't any actual kids there, they couldn't be sexually abused there. So there's that.

I noticed that Scott Alexander recently published a political treatise entitled Orban Was Bad, Even Though We Don't Have A Perfect Word For His Badness which ponders the thorny question where we draw the dividing line between democracy and dictatorship. The related discussion on the SCC subreddit is available here. I don’t claim to have the answer to this dilemma but I’m fairly sure Orban’s perceived badness in the eyes of his Western critics is almost entirely the result of the triggering factor that is his overt anti-wokeness. Without this there would be scarce incentive to even notice his actions.

The reason, I think, is that anti-wokeness is normally a fringe political phenomenon even in Central Eastern Europe (or the European former satellite states of the USSR). Anti-woke politicians do exists but they are, again, normally fringe and insignificant.

I’d quote observations from two commenters in the Reddit thread:

Orban was a culture war pioneer and very influential culture warrior. He wrote the playbook that Trump and his allies used, the anti-immigration stuff, the anti-woke stuff, etc. He funded think tanks across the world to spread the far-right populist propaganda. He spoke at CPAC and encouraged a right-wing takeover of the media.

Orbán imported all of his anti-woke ideology from the US. (It didn't really work because woke isn't really a thing in Hungary.) He did volume-boost anti-immigration somewhat (he took most ideas from the European far right, but he was the first mainstream leader to embrace them), it was mostly kayfabe though. The only thing he seems to have true convictions on is allying with Russia rather than the West (which isn't really popular even in postliberal circles).

Hungary is basically playing the same role for postliberalism as Venezuela for socialism: the country is going to shit, opponents like to point that out, and proponents feel compelled to defend it and pretend everything is peachy because otherwise they'd have to admit that every single attempt to make postliberalism the governing ideology ended detrimentally. (Plus there's the extra layer of attention he was able to get by abusing the EU's generous and somewhat naive veto/consensus rules.)

A major element of Orban's perceived badness was his alignment with Russia. He has more recently attracted attention in the US because a number of conservatives put forward Orbanism as a template for Republican governance.

Hungary is basically playing the same role for postliberalism as Venezuela for socialism: the country is going to shit, opponents like to point that out, and proponents feel compelled to defend it and pretend everything is peachy because otherwise they'd have to admit that every single attempt to make postliberalism the governing ideology ended detrimentally.

A trait that Chavista Venezuela (pre-Maduro, who turned into an old-fashioned dictator) and Orbanist Hungary share is being illiberal democracies, a perennial favorite of people trying to challenge liberal globalism. You end up defending these illiberal governments because the alternative is to admit that your ideology is not fit for purpose (or you go mask-off authoritarian, but that's pretty unusual in developed countries).

Orban's a hero to his country, IMO. Of course the west and especially the EU dislike him. Their priorities run orthogonal to his own. Illiberal movements come and go but they rarely directly translate into political power, although you have guys like Martin Sellner trying to change that. In a lot of ways I wish we had an administration more like his own.

where we draw the dividing line between democracy and dictatorship

Well, at least in the US the answer is clear - where the DNC decides to draw it. And if that line looks like a gerrymandered district boundary in Illinois, that's by design. You can do every single thing that Orban did, and still remain a hero and a defender of Our Democracy, provided you did it in the service of and with approval of the Party. In fact, it won't be to hard to find an example for pretty much every item - maybe with minor tweaks - Scott charged Orban with, from recent proposals by Democrats, arguing this is absolutely necessary to prevent the death of Our Democracy.

Well, maybe not the child porn accusation - they used the accusation of holding secret documents instead. The pedophilia accusations came later, and did not result in search warrants.

I mean I am not to say Orban is a good guy. He's probably very corrupt, quite autocratic (not to the level where the moniker of "dictator" is appropriate, but he's no Voltaire) and likely a lot of bad stuff said about him is true, and he did not play nice. But the problem Scott has - and refuses to address it - is that in his own country, in his own state, in his own city, the politics is full of people who also don't play nice, in pretty much the same way, if not literally then directionally - and as long as they don't play nice to achieve the goals he wants to achieve, he'd been fine with it. That's normal, if politicians are not doing something outrageously stupid (which unfortunately is the filter not many in California politics pass), moreover, if they do what I want them to do, I wouldn't dig too much into how exactly they got there and wouldn't spend too much of my time on getting familiar with all dirt there is on every single one of them. I want clean politics, I prefer clean politics, but I know some amount of dirt is inevitable.

But to pretend there is some way to define "dictatorship" or any other term, so that Orban would fit, and Obama/Biden/DNC would not, and that if that definition exists, this is why the mainstream press is calling him a "dictator" (or any other term), is pure bullshit. It's always tactical, always motivated, always "who whom".

[reposting this here after I posted it in the earlier transnational thread of April 9th as it generated no responses.]

Hungary to stick with veto on EU Israel sanctions following Orban election defeat

Highlighting some parts from this news article:

Hungary's likely next prime minister, Peter Magyar, on Monday said that he would block proposals for the European Union to sanction Israel in one of the few policy positions aligned with those of outgoing nationalist leader, Viktor Orban.[...] Cautioning that he did not want to “rush ahead” in deciding how Budapest should position itself in EU decisions, he added that “Hungary will continue to block EU decisions regarding Israel”.

In a post on X, Mr Netanyahu's office said he extended his “deep appreciation” for Mr Orban, “who stood firmly by Israel's side in the face of unjust international vilification”.[...] Under Mr Orban, Hungary angered EU states by persistently vetoing aid packages to Ukraine, but also sanctions against Israel that require unanimous support. However, consensus among EU states on sanctioning Israel is far weaker than backing for Ukraine, with major states including Germany, Italy and France reluctant to take punitive measures.

More recently, the EU's foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas voiced frustration at Hungary for opposing a package of sanctions against violent Israeli settlers in the occupied territories. “We don't do what the majority wants, but actually we are doing what this one country wants,” Ms Kallas said in February, without naming Hungary.

From another article:

Certain statements condemning Israeli actions — such as high-casualty military strikes during its war with Hamas in Gaza — that the bloc sought to issue on behalf of all 27 countries were often blocked by Hungary, forcing EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas to issue them in her name alone, the official explained.

On substantive policy, however, Hungary’s role is narrower.

The only concrete EU measure that Hungary alone has blocked is a package of sanctions targeting violent West Bank settlers and organizations that support them.

Kallas has repeatedly stated that 26 countries have approved the sanctions measure, and it is widely understood that Hungary is the single country blocking it. Other proposed measures against Israel, such as suspending trade preferences, lack sufficient support regardless of Hungary’s position.

I'd comment on this from a culture war angle because the issue here appears to be largely symbolic, and I think culture wars are largely about symbols and gestures.

Regarding the legacy of anti-Semitism in Hungary and the long-term effect it has had on the attitudes of local liberals towards Israel, I offered a summary of my own interpretation here before so I won't repeat myself. What I'd add here is that the self-declared right-wing conservative ruling party that is alluded to in these articles which has been in power for 16 years has wide opposition, as evidenced by its recent decisive defeat in national elections. And the opposition does not only include the local version of the Blue Tribe (to the extent that they exist), but we can surely say that every local liberal leftist (and every neoliberal for that matter) supports the opposition.

But it seems that the issue of relations with Israel may become a source of internal division for them, and declarations such as the ones quoted above are undoubtedly adding fuel to it. This isn't that visible now but I'm sure it will be visible down the line. Observing the former satellite states of the USSR, I'd say the overall influence of the Israel lobby is maybe nowhere else as strong as in Hungary, and it usually asserts cultural influence through sympathetic liberals in important cultural positions. (Again, please see my comment I mentioned above and another down further down in the same chain for more commentary.)

The seemingly obvious reason this has now been shifting for some time is that local middle-class urban young liberals, the most vocal opponents of the now-ousted government, are increasingly acculturated in similarly aligned US online echo chambers and cultural spheres (subreddits, online news sites, vloggers, forums etc.), which in turn are increasingly dominated by a vehemently anti-Zionist tendency. And I think they will increasingly crowd out local older, less online and more Zionist liberals.

An interesting little moment in the marathon 7-hour 50-artist "System-Breaking Grand Concert" two days before the election was when the Jewish Hungarian reggae singer, vegan and pro-Palestine activist GRas called on the crowd to chant the Hungarian equivalent of "Free free Palestine" and then proceeded to diss "IsraHell" imperialism and capitalism. https://youtube.com/live/t6BEQJTqnXY?t=14593 Afterwards, the speaker / show host was quick to say that "we don't all agree in everything" and that this even is for one specific cause etc. All this good little attention afterwards, since the focus was stolen by a singer who flashed his dick and said he'd put his balls on the head of a minister, and everyone, including Orbán made references to that event.

Isn't Peter Magyar jewish? Some friends in my right-wing group chat shared a photo of him in a yamaka with a star of david on it. I personally don't know anything about him. But I imagine if he is a practicing jew that might be a better model to explain his reluctance to sanctioning israel.

EDIT: Nice this comment earned me my first block for something so innocuous, is this a motte rite of passage?

EDIT 2: Wrong kind of Right, very pratchet-onian of me

He most certainly is not. The photos are real though. See my comment below.

@Amadan YoungAchamian is saying he was banned for this, but I don't see anything in the Moderation Log and there's no modpost. Would you mind clarifying whether he's mistaken?

EDIT: Ah, blocked by a user rather than banned, false alarm.

ZanarkandAbesFan

Nah ^ blocked me for this comment. Or at least has very recently blocked me and it just so happens to coincide with their low effort comment below. I just find it funny or ironic of all my controversial comments that the genuinely innocuous one was what got me.

Oh, right, I forgot that that feature's called "blocking" here (and I wasn't aware you could tell if someone blocked you; some forum software doesn't tell the person being blocked/ignored, and if I've received such a notification it was a very long time ago).

I thought it is customary to offer it gentiles to wear when they visit a synagogue or bar mitzva

It's basically what indeed happened this time. The photos in question were taken on April 16th, officially Holocaust remembrance day in Hungary, as this was the day deportations started in 1944. See here:

https://mazsihisz.hu/dr-grosz-andor-zsidok-es-nem-zsidok-egyutt-mondunk-nemet-a-gyuloletre/

Is it? That's cool. They did not offer me one when I went to a Hillel in college for an antro of religion observation but it also wasn't a very serious service/community.

Some friends in my right-wing group chat shared a photo of him in a yamaka with a star of david on it.

You know that, contrary to popular belief, non-Jews can wear yarmulkas and neither God nor Mossad would strike them down? Also, contrary to popular belief, it takes more to become a Jew than putting a piece of cloth on your head, even if you photograph the occurrence. It is hard to believe that a person with the last name of "Magyar" is actually a Magyar, but it seems to be the case here.

I mean I get where it's coming from - Hungarian Jews are one of the most prominent branches of Ashkenazi Jews, who gave the world prominent people from Teodor Herzl to Robert Fischer to Milton Friedman to Edward Teller to Paul Erdős, and many many more, so when you see a smart, successful, prominent Hungarian some may be tempted to ask the question. In this case, however, the answer is "no".

Well, David Deutsch (of quantum computing fame), for example, is in fact Jewish. Maybe there is something like "the lady doth protest too much" class naming?

On the main topic, my impression is that of all the present-day European cultures, Hungary perhaps has the most extensive Jewish influence, showing most obviously in aspects like cuisine and music as well as plain public visibility (Budapest has a remarkable number of random shops with Hebrew signboards), while there also does not seem to be nearly as much of a sense of gap/otherness between them and the rest of the population as elsewhere. If I recall correctly, even Horthy at most reluctantly did the bare minimum of participation in the Nazis' anti-Jew agenda, and nobody likes the guy thy briefly installed to replace him in the final year. Moreover, ever since Trianon, Hungary has a very similar "beleaguered nation-state bearer of a totally unique people's destiny" self-image. It is therefore unsurprising that they feel some kinship with Israel.

It is hard to believe that a person with the last name of "Magyar" is actually a Magyar, but it seems to be the case here.

There’s always Archie Bunker’s theory to consider though!

Well, given as the most famous Peter is unquestionably Jewish, maybe...

Here I thought the most famous Peter was Spiderman. Or one of the Russian Emperors.

Maybe it's just a sign I haven't been to church recently enough.

The retard right finds the motte.

Low effort and obnoxious comment providing no value. Banned for two days.

I have no dog in this fight, nor am I particularly Joo-pilled. It was more of a curious piece of evidence that might have weighed in on a model of behavior. Not every underlying model mechanism is correct.

I'd argue that in Hungary as well the point has been passed in society where such 'accusations' haven any political effect at all. I reckon the last time something like this happened was in 2015, in which case the individual in question did indeed turn out to be a grifter Jew.

https://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-32549099

That's the point - it's not "piece of evidence" of anything. OK, maybe it's a piece of evidence Magyar is not a flaming antisemite, since otherwise he'd refuse to wear the yarmulka, but beyond that it's not much of an evidence. Certainly not an evidence of him being or not being a Jew. I don't know about the particular photo but likely it was in the context of meeting some religious Jews on a religions occasion (such as celebrating a Jewish holiday maybe?) - and it's completely appropriate for a non-Jewish person to wear one, e.g. when visiting a synagogue. In fact, in most such places, when you enter, there is often a pile of yarmulkas near the entrance so anybody entering could take one and be polite. If he wore it day to day, it'd be weird for a non-Jew to do that, but I don't think he does.

In a data modeling understanding, everything is a "piece of evidence" any observation, any data, is fuel for the bayesian model. I observed it, made a tentative connection, stated my theorized connection, you and the other poster pointed out why is not a likely connection, I updated my understanding model of the what/when/where/why's. The end.

Idk why you are jumping at this so aggressively.

It's pretty mild substantive critique, not aggressive at all. If that's "jumping at this so aggressively" for you, we must be visiting very different internets, and I almost envy you. But only almost because if (when) I am wrong, I'd rather be informed about it than stay wrong without knowing it. I don't see it as a personal attack (even though being wrong is unpleasant, but that's just my ego talking).

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