Since a lot of us here have expressed interest in not starving to death in a gutter, I figured I'd start a weekly thread to discuss financial matters.
Ground Rules
- Remember that we're all just Internet randos. Don't bet your life savings on a hot tip from this thread.
- Keep culture war in the culture war thread. Yes, global events may impact our personal finances, but that does not mean we have to incessantly harp on culture war aspects here. If you are going to discuss it, please stick to the practical impacts of it on an individual level.
- Be kind. Remember that everyone here comes from different circumstances. We all have different resources available and different risk tolerances.
- Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Better is better. Celebrate people when they take a step up and work to move their finances in the right direction. Don't flame out because they haven't followed what you consider the optimal path. Everybody has to start somewhere.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
I guess I’m moderately bearish. Maybe a little sell in May correction. So I think I would wait for a 10% correction to deploy.
Some funds I’ve come across that could be of interests is David Orr’s Militia Capital. Does long and short. A lot of Japanese value. It’s corrected. Has had solid performance since inception. It’s a younger fund but I think you want managers in their prime. They do burn out. So he probably has 10 years. Also Gator Capital always interested me some for financials exposure. I think you can take 10-20% of exposures outsides of just beta products. Bonds also look like a reasonable risks reward at 5% on 30’s. So you can probably put $50k of your cash into them now. If shit would hit the fan they definitely provide a good hedge to other exposures now. If QE was needed again you could get a lot of cap gains there.
You could be waiting for years, at which point you will be buying back at a much higher price than had you bought now.
Nothing I like more for being bearish than hearing markets will never go down. It’s been a big fast rally. And we are entering the most bearish time of the year. I feel find being on sidelines.
Last time we had a market talk some one said they were dumping all their spy and only buying oil stocks on war. Now oil indexes are down a few % and spy up 14%. My gut says oil stocks have more downside. Because of all the AI capex buybacks from tech firms have collapsed. Big IPOs will suck up capital this summer. I see a lot of market reasons for a correction.
I’m low on fomo. Usually sitting out the current thing and being patient has some value.
You must have a talent for hearing that, since that's not what the guy said!
It's extremely difficult to beat DCA by buying the dip.
Whatever that guy is selling is obviously false. Also noticed he doesn’t seem to pay interests to cash balances. I think it’s because he’s also not selling the rip. And the general upward trend of the market doesn’t guarantee the next dip is bigger than the average value over the prior time period.
I also never said just buy the dip. I said don’t buy right now.
Jane St made 17b last quarter. This place is filled with those types. There is an absolute ton of alpha in the market.
Should be easy to show why and score a black eye on Big Dollar Cost Averaging.
Timing both the peak and the trough is significantly harder than timing just the trough though.
True, but he's looking at S&P valuation corrected for inflation so I think that's implicitly assuming that cash reserves keep their real value.
I don't think even this august forum is "filled with" some of the smartest people in the country. Also note that Jane Street employees 3500 people working together to make that money rather than lone forum posters. The odds are... Not great, even if you are a genius.
To be clear I never proposed by the dip versus DCA. I kind of get his math. The key thing is he’s not always buying after a 14% 1 month rally. I proposed market timing which is not the same thing. MOST of the time DCA is better than buy the dip because equities usually go up, but it’s NOT always better. By claiming he had “perfect” information it implied he was doing a lot more trading. Then he threw together a backward optimized test with parameters that made his article look smarter. Obviously if you know every tick of the index you could absolutely crush basically every trading system. You turn $1k into a $1 billion in a year.
Jane St literally recruited off of this forum so I assume there are some lingerers.
Sure. But he's buying at the trough between each ATH. "You can do better with perfect information if you trade more often" is not a rebuttal - in real life you don't have perfect information and having to make more perfect trades to beat DCA is harder than the outlined strategy.
How? When?
They advertised on the origional blog before rationalism got popular. Not sure on exact dates and perhaps this is a dumber offshoot.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link