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I’ve been feeling an oncoming crash for years, and it hasn’t paid off yet. From my COMPLETELY UNSCIENTIFIC, VIBES-ONLY perspective, the market has absorbed all sorts of rate changes and price spikes and geopolitical boondoggles which might have reasonably been expected to presage a crash. But then, if it was obvious, it would be priced in, right?
Speaking of which. The big AI companies are absurdly valued, which is not the same as being incorrectly valued. Pricing the possibility of a market-shattering payoff has historically caused markets to diverge from normal human expectations. This isn’t great, but it’s not inherently disastrous in the same way as, say, the subprime mortgage situation.
It only ends up a bubble if AI plateaus, stops picking up new niches, before debt outpaces investment. This is entirely possible and I don’t know what the leading indicators would be.
If AI expands into any other sector of the economy, it pays off. I suspect this would require a major change in robotics (to cover skilled trades, etc.) or ethics (to allow violence). Some of these routes are extremely goddamn dystopian, but at least they aren’t bubbles, right?
That said, AI isn’t the only source of optimistic IPOs. There is a lot of interest in manufacturing and defense investment. Onshoring stuff which might become contentious. I could believe that this is its own bubble; people want to believe that manufacturing will spring up. If they are underestimating the cost of local improvements, or overestimating the reliability of the current administration, there’s potential for some serious disappointment.
Ha. Norm MacDonald continues to be relevant.
Besides, if the techbros are revealed as delusional, if all the slush funds and gold plating in the country can’t stave off a crash…what are we supposed to think? Sorry, Trump was just holding the hot potato, blame the wreckers?
I don't think that's fair. I'm not trying to make you feel sympathy for Trump, I'm trying to say what comes after him will be worse. See for example the thread after Labour won the most recent election in the UK, and compare to how eit panned out.
The busness cycle is usually beyond any president, so partially yes, but it's clear he also made many unforced errors here.
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The Schiller P/E ratio has me spooked. It's over 40. I also don't love that Google has gone from using cash flow, to issuing debt, to issuing equity to fund build outs. Furthermore, I'm not fond of current private credit default rates right now. They're at a high water mark since we started tracking them after 2008.
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Have a look at what Hyundai is doing with shipbuilding and robotic welders.
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Can't forget that AI is at present unlocking a lot of rapid improvement in the biology/pharma realm.
Even if we don't get true immortality-type stuff, keeping people healthy and youthful for longer is a massive productivity boom in and of itself. Curing obesity ALONE is trillion-dollar gain territory.
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