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Impossible to penetrate Russian society today. FSB goes after oligarchs like Browder, they are heading further in the direction of Christian nationalism, etc. If they flee to Russia they are surrendering their influence.
Don’t imagine it would be much different than the 10,000 or so some odd Jews that live in Tehran or Shiraz, in Iran. People misunderstand just how delicate and fragile Israel is, especially when much of its economy is held up by its secular, high-tech development, driven forward by only a few thousand or so rugged and enterprising pioneers inside the country. It only takes a small amount of Jews to exit the country before things get really bad for them. The remaining ultra orthodox are mostly unproductive as far as their relevance to the modern economy goes.
I thought there were some changes to get the ultra orthodox men into jobs and even drafted military service. It should be axiomatic as they grow into a larger percentage of the Israeli population, otherwise Israel would be reliant on women to do all the fighting and other typical male work.
The story’s more complicated than most people let on. The values of secular Israelis aren’t really all that much different from those in the developed Mediterranean European world. The Haredim though, follow their spiritual leaders (who encourage the men to take up Torah study all day and women to embrace the life of a housewife). The divide means that the secular Israelis mostly align themselves with the basic democratic practices of the state whereas the Haredim are socialized by communal activities. Something like half the men don’t participate in the workforce, and the women not just being prevented from doing so by the community, couldn’t do so even if allowed due to their pregnancies. So they’re a community that lives off the expense of the rest of productive society. Funny to think as an anti-Semite would that these people live as a “parasite” on the “host” society. As an Arab friend one mine once hilariously and stupidly put it: “They’re Israel’s beaner problem. They’re worthless to society, lazy as shit, get on welfare and push around baby strollers all fucking day.” And as the growth of the Haredim keeps increasing, it increases the burden on the welfare system that enables their existence in the first place, leading to a breakdown in Israeli society that has bothered political parties and secular Israelis for a long time.
While that is a raw deal for the secular Israelis, I feel that if push came to shove and the core undisputed lands of Israel were under threat the men could be convinced to mobilize if their homes were literally being torn down and their women kidnapped, spiritual leaders be damned.
Are there not also some disaffected Haredim that self-convert to the secular Israeli way of life? If so, they serve as a bonus pool of population that can slowly add to Israel's workforce. I think only the subsidies need to be cut for the Haredim to stop being a net drain, and in an emergency it seems like they could be tapped to repay all the subsidies they have soaked up over the years.
Forcing the Haredim to secularize would probably ruin Israel's democracy though, they would obviously never vote for it. It would be a one time action of a dictator.
I think your analysis is apt but it’s highly unlikely to happen or play out like that.
Today the Haredim do play a role in the Israeli government and some had an interest in secular institutions, and then there’s the anti-Zionist minority that see the existence of Israel as a blasphemy (the most famous of them being the Neturei Karta in Mea Shearim). It was originally founded by a Rabbi from NYC that immigrated to Israel but never became a citizen (and saw the state as a Palestinian occupied territory) and he was against the state because it wasn’t a product of divine intervention via God’s decree. The state has to be established by the Messiah through his Messianic qualifications. If the Haredim are largely not interested in secular matters because they’ve devoted their lives to God, that’s not something you can just go in and easily reverse. Some few people may leave here and there. The rest are going to fight you tooth and nail. You saw this in 2024 when the ultra orthodox were fighting with the police outside of army bases in Israel. Their Supreme Court ruled the draft exemptions they previously had were illegal and the military anticipated something like 70% of them wouldn’t show up for their first day. The Shas party and the leader of the non-Hasidic Ashkenazi community ordered them not to go to the draft office.
I see, so forcing secularization of the haredim would be percieved as a kind of religious genocide, like with china and the uyghurs. That's uh, extremely problematic to say the least because the han chinese can at least otherize the uyghur muslims which makes it more internally tolerable.
There would probably be many secular defectors in any forceful attempt to secularize the haredim, which seems like it would lead to massed civil disobedience and protests.
If I was a secular Israeli politician invested in the long-term future of Israel, I would be preparing a media narrative to otherize the haredim. Calling them rats, parasites, fifth columnists, etc. Not doing so would be effectively dooming Israel.
Part of the problem is the largest booming demographic in Israel is the ultra orthodox, which makes democratic elections depend upon them as a majority constituent. The Haredim have a huge vested interest in supporting the kind of political influence that allows them to retain their fiscal benefits in government institutions; and they resist the basic labor skills that prepare them for the modern labor market.
Haredi don't seem to have any majority yet though, right? Google says Shas and United Torah are Haredi, so it seems like they are still in the minority for electoral relevance. Unless one of the major parties is more Haredi leaning than what wikipedia says.
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That's if the influential Jews physically flee to Russia. Why wouldn't they just invite Russia in to offer a marginally less shitty deal than the one you're proposing USA should offer them? Or China, for that matter.
Many Israeli are Russian Jews anyway (or just Russians with very thin Jewish ancestry).
They could offer Russia a buffer of tech that's not completely pozzed with Western values yet is better than the feeble attempts of Russia to create its own internet, for example.
I think traditional Russian allies in the ME are Syria (under Assad, mainly) and (wait for it) Iran. If Russia started bombing Iran, they would need to find someone else to build their drones against Ukraine, and I am not sure if Israel has the production capacity.
Russia and Iran are allies of convenience. Russia also likes a close relationship with the Gulf. Russia also sold out close Iranian allies Armenia. Putin pursued and expropriated some Jewish oligarchs, but also plenty of gentile ones, and there are still plenty of Jews he allows to remain rich, or indeed in other important roles in the state (politicians, propagandists, etc).
'Sold out' implies getting something in return. Russia was not bribed into its position in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, it was impotent and subsequently ignorred/bypassed.
We do not know what, if any, backroom negotiations and deals, whether official or unofficial, were involved (unless Mottizens are much more elite and well connected human capital anyone could imagine).
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And if they decide to do that, we can expropriate the wealth of their loyalists in America and allow Israel’s neighbors to invade with the help of our military intelligence. Why shouldn’t we do this? The threat of losing the land traps them into doing what we want.
Aside from the problem that you can’t confiscate the human capital, all you can do is take the property produced by it, I don’t imagine they’d just idly sit around and do nothing about it.
It does not seem to me that the super high IQ Israelis are the same as the super tribalistic Israelis. If we allocate tens of billions into paying and retaining the high IQ portion, then it concretely benefits America and is cheaper than defending Israel.
I can search for the data on this later, because I’m going off memory of what I read here (and by proxy to IQ), Israel’s primary export locomotive has been its high-tech sector. They’re renowned for that achievement all over the world. But something like only 3% (I think; I know it’s less than 5%) of all employee positions in Israel are in those high-tech manufacturing fields; and that accounted for nearly 1/2 of Israel’s entire exports back in 2015.
What this means by implication (and Israeli elites themselves have written about this, and their worry of a brain drain) is they’re very worried about conflicts and political sensitivity to certain issues that could cause Jews who came to Israel to turn around and emigrate out of the country back to the one they came from. In 2023, the presidents of some Israeli universities wrote a warning about the governments plan to weaken the judiciary system could substantially impact academia, resulting in a further brain drain of intellectual talent. And even worse, one of the knock-on effects of this (there are other factors lending themselves to the same problem as well) is that it’s the most educated segments of society that will end up bearing the highest tax burden; which just adds to the economic (and political) polarization. Then add on to that that something like 10% of Israeli citizens have dual citizenship, which makes it easy for them to leave at the first sign of trouble. Israel is in a very precarious situation.
So all Trump needs for political pressure is to allow a special H1B program to fast track immigration of high-tech Israelis to the US, while simultaneously refusing to provide defensive assistance against iran. Unless these israelis are especially patriotic, many would probably prefer US jewish enclaves and/or sunny beaches rather than risking the odds of an iranian ballistic missile slipping through the missile shield.
It’s a real risk Israel worries about.
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