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I'd just add that Platner was seen as a left factional candidate from the get-go. He was recruited by a set of campaign consultants who worked for Sanders and then Fetterman. The Democratic Establishment candidate was Janet Mills, the 78 year old Governor with a 51% approval rating. The insider take I've read is that most of the young up and coming Dems in Maine wanted to duck Susan Collins and opted for lateral or incremental career moves (Hannah Pingee going for governor) so as to stay on track rather than running in the primary.
If you follow left vs center left online debates every new indication of Platner's poor judgement that leaked was declared an establishment ratfuck and when he overcame them to win the primary this was celebrated as the end of "HR lady" politics by Matt Stoller (iirc, not totally sure it was him). Today Ryan Grim was still fighting about how dishonest the media was for omitting that Platner's accusers sent a message that she needed a glute massage before telling him not to come over.
The establishment never wanted Platner, once he won the primary they were stuck defending him because they don't want to hurt his chances of beating Collins. With the assault allegation they're convinced he's going to lose no matter what so then they have to do everything they can to force him out. If we're being conspiratorial though why leak this stuff after the primary, but before the deadline for changing the ballot line. If the establishment had the allegations in their back pocket ready to leak to the medi they could have dropped it earlier and gotten Janet Mills vs. Susan Collins like they wanted.
It's because Platner was dropping in the polls. The consensus among Democrats in the press was that the accusations against Platner were baseless up until the exact week he stopped polling ahead of Susan Collins.
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The post-mortem on this is going to be interesting if it ever becomes publicly available, the number of people I've seen on the left and the right in the establishment who note that everyone knew about this stuff (including the NYT) is unreal.
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Too soon indeed.
Never again back a Democratic candidate that isn't an HR lady because a heterosexual male with any semblance of sexual history is at risk of getting MeToo'd just before the election.
There's a reason why none of these accusations are ever about something that happened last night, and there's always some string of enthusiastic text messages that are totally at odds with the way the accuser currently remembers things. Yet we're expected to accept unverified SA allegations influencing politics and woe be on he who dares question the word of Her Holiness, The Victim™.
This guy is probably the most obvious sexual assaulter we've had in recent memory, even more obvious than some of the people who have previously down weird sex stuff.
The guy has posted about fantasizing about raping and killing people...and joined the military to do that (in how own words!), claimed to be a huge WWII buff but got a Nazi tattoo, has significant infidelity problems that aren't contested, and I'm not even sure that's all of it.
Hearing that he was a rapist or a sex pest is more unsurprising than anything.
Would you be shocked if President grab-her-by-the-pussy is outed as a rapist tomorrow? And would you be shocked if those allegations were then found to be fabricated next week? There's always nebulous "signs" that seem obvious in hindsight, especially when characterised with a more "flexible" personal ethics than what's normal. But the allegations need to stand on their own legs as well. Or we could simply chuck legal procedure, cede to the court of public opinion (read: mob rule) and do only what's optically feasible.
According to reddit Trump is a rapist. Adjudicated civilly liable for rape or whatever phrasing they use. We're far past that in the minds of his opponents.
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As another user pointed out, Democracy is already "mob rule" and nothing will stop the Collins campaign and conservative media from repeating the allegations against him. And nothing will stop hesitant voters from changing their minds when they hear about it. This isn't a criminal court, this is an election. If you want to talk about "proper procedure" in the court of public opinion, then it should go both ways and the politico article should not have even been allowed.
It's like my government mandated friend issue, there is a fundamental different between the government organization and the private citizen/organization. The government can not (or at least should not) arrest you for the content of your speech, meanwhile I can kick you out of my house for any reason I want. In the same way the government shouldn't jail someone without due process and high standards of evidence, but I am free to judge you off whatever standard I please, including explicitly unfair and biased ones.
Certainly, I have many reservations with involving the "court of public opinion" before the allegations are formally investigated and some degree of plausibility is established. It's a problem I don't have a workable solution for, short of CCP style censorship. My contention is, we're supposed to accept that unproven sexual allegations alone should be able to dictate political affairs, but not ask critical questions.
In practice, if this person was later found to be innocent and had an otherwise good chance of winning the elections, haven't you basically shot your own foot? There are literally no cultural antibodies against situations like this. At least the GOP can defend their own.
They're gonna dictate political affairs even if people don't believe them much because it tilts the scales.
Maybe you think X = 55 favorable and Y = 50 favorable, so you would vote X. However X now has a serious llegation against him that you think is 30% true, and a less serious allegation against him that you think is 70% true. Maybe the serious allegation at full is a -15 and the less serious is a -8. So X gets a -4.5 and a -5.6 respectively, putting them below Y and you now prefer Y.
It is perfectly reasonable that even not proven allegations if even somewhat evidenced will impact voters. And again, nothing would stop the Collins campaign from repeating these allegations. Nothing would stop the Collins campaign from repeating and finding other allegations either, as we know was part of their plan and why they're panicking now that Planter seems to be dropping out.
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Thee number of allegations that fell through against President grab-her-by-the-pussy is precisely why I would be shocked if Trump were outed as a rapist tomorrow. If there were strong, credible evidence of rape, it would have been raised by now. Lord knows it would have been much easier than burning the Democrat's own credibility via resorting to novel legal theories and banal hypocrisies.
But the reason for that shock is that convincing evidence tomorrow only come in the context of a long history of disproven or unsupported allegations yesteryear. If there is convincing evidence, I would be shocked for it to come out now, and not earlier in the better part of a decade of effort to destroy Trump.
By contrast, I am not shocked when a first-run would-be congress critter's dirty laundry starts to appear during their first run, precisely because it is their first run and they've never been subject to stricter public scrutiny before. With stricture scrutiny comes the low hanging fruits being easily noticed, and low hanging fruits give a starting point to find the less-obvious higher hanging fruits from the same tree.
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I hate to break it to you, but the method the US has for filling political offices relies substantially on public opinion, or 'mob rule', as you phrased it.
Criminal procedure requirements apply to criminal penalties only. Your partner may still dump you on evidence of infidelity which would not be conclusive enough for a jury to send you to the gallows, simply because there is no due process requirement for dumping a partner.
Likewise, there is no motion to suppress testimony in political campaigns, because not getting elected to the US Senate is not a violation of your fundamental rights. In the end, it is up to the sovereign to decide how much any allegations disqualify you or not.
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I'm personally of the opinion that Trump has probably had sexual encounters that would be considered rape by median 2020 peak woke values of such, however I don't think he's likely to have committed anything especially vile by standards of his immediate cultural standards. I'm sure Platner got laid a bunch for tweaking the right signals that'd kill it with a Tumblr chicklit enthusiast, but 'manly takechargey man' is a role that is always going to be dancing on the line of consent. Especially when consent can be assigned and retracted retroactively at any time for any reason
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No, and no, respectively, and that's the fault of his brag-about-sexual-assault behavior and of his attackers' throw-mud-and-see-what-sticks behavior, so neither of my "no"s is wrong in either the positive or normative sense.
Are there, though? Politician is a pretty awful job for people who aren't attracted to power, which might correlate with sexual force kinks and probably correlates with being willing to lie for power, but even vague signs aren't "always" there. It's not a wacky coincidence that we've been talking about Platner pretty exclusively before this final straw. Cory Booker might be a contributor to federal gridlock, but do you think he might be a rapist? John Cornyn might lie about how partisan his Supreme Court confirmation behavior was, but do you think he'd lie to frame someone for rape?
In this case in particular, we're in theory talking about a candidate who was head-hunted by party insiders, not somebody whose drive to power led him to start a campaign on his own initiative. If we're already widening the search that proactively, couldn't we just have found someone with no Nazi tattoos, no public statements of bloodlust, no reports of abuse from exes, no violations of wedding vows, and no accounts on creepy sites famed for underaged sexting? This is not actually a big ask! There are loads of normal people out there, some of whom would probably agree to run for Senator anyway!
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Shocked? No.
But Trump is vulgar, being a sex pest makes sense, rapist maybe less so but not shocking. This guy is HEINOUS. He bragged about having thoughts of raping men for dominance, like it makes more sense than not!
Vague, nebulous post-hoc signs are a problems but this guy is not that!
If you had to make a most Sus guy in a lab it would look like this guy.
I followed it up with another question.
You know why MeToo ran out of mileage?
The signal-to-noise ratio of the allegations was probably the worst we've ever seen at the time. Becky accuses Brad on twitter, incident happened somewhere in LA several years ago so no evidence exists, she was super scared so no police complaint was filed, you know the drill. And she's definitely not lying because "you don't lie about these things and it's hard to lie about it rape".
Except, it's the digital age. It's never been easier to lie! People lie, casually and often, about far more outlandish things than SA. And the online mob will reliably follow her word to lynch Brad.
You can't reason with the mob, why allow them to get involved at all?
There are people who want Trump gone, we know that. We have precedent within the decade for smear campaigns (see Russiagate) to delegitimise his Presidency. An unverified rape charge at a politically critical moment? Is that not Sus?
You're confusing MeToo with the campus rape allegations. I'm not aware of single MeToo incident that involved a single individual making accusations about an isolated instance of sexual misconduct that happened decades ago. The closest was Brett Kavanaugh, but even that isn't a great instance because it was a presumed attempted rape and it didn't prevent his Supreme Court confirmation. The New York Times did a postmortem in the fall of 2018 documenting over 200 incidents, the overwhelming majority of which involved some kind of workplace harassment. The perpetrators often admitted the accusations or at least to some kind of vague wrongdoing "I apologize for any inappropriate behavior...", and most of the cases involved multiple accusers, witnesses, or some other kind of corroboration.
I said several years ago, not decades ago. Meaning a large enough window for people to forget or misremember key details about the incident and for key pieces of evidence to no longer exist. Aziz Ansari comes to mind, and he even apologised to her afterwards. There was also Jeremy Soule in the games industry, accusations surfaced 10 years after the alleged incident and he went off-grid afterwards. Chris Avellone was accused of sexual misconduct that allegedly took place in undisclosed time periods, two of his accusers retracted the accusations and settled a libel suit outside of court. I don't know if this counts, but Depp v Heard involved alleged incidents (including sexual) spanning years.
Because the GOP is understood to be on the "man" side of gender politics, which allows for presumption of innocence (not just legally, but socially and professionally). If he was a Democrat, he would've been dropped like a hot potato.
I don't doubt the stories NYT picked up and ran with actually met some degree of plausibility to formally report, but MeToo was an ambient enforcement of social pressure to listen and believe countless stories with varying levels of believability. We have to just accept that misconduct allegations could surface at any point and we should take every one of them very seriously, but never seriously ask critical questions.
Soule's accusations came in 2019, and Avellone's in 2020. The Johnny Depp allegations became public during his 2016 divorce but disappeared from the headlines for years and didn't become a major part of public discourse until the 2022 defamation trial. I bring these dates up because your post implied that MeToo petered out because of a raft of similar claims that people stopped taking seriously. MeToo took off with the Weinstein accusations in November 2017 and continued apace until the following summer, during which they slowly petered out, with the Asia Argento and Les Moonves allegations being the last major ones. The Ansari thing came out in January of 2018, and while it sort of fits the pattern you describe and was controversial at the time, even among ardent MeToo supporters, it didn't have much of an effect on the momentum of the movement as a whole.
There was always a sort of motte and bailey going on with the Kavanaugh case, at least insofar as it was discussed by Kavanaugh's defenders. There were also political considerations involved that swamped the whole thing, and I'll state for the record that neither side covered itself in glory throughout the affair. For some background, Ford privately reported what she remembered to Diane Feinstein, who was the ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee, in July, amid speculation that Kavanaugh was on Trump's short list to replace Kennedy. Feinstein kept this information to herself until Kavanaugh's confirmation hearings were nearing conclusion in September, which required them to be extended for some time while the claims were investigated. The Republicans may be broadly described as on the "pro-man" side of the argument, but I don't think they defended Kavanaugh purely based on ideology but through political necessity. Had Feinstein quietly informed the White House and the rest of the committee of the potential scandal, there's a good chance that Kavanaugh isn't named, nobody asks any questions, and nobody has ever heard of Christine Blasey Ford. By timing the revelations when she did, Feinstein ensured that the administration couldn't pull the nomination without causing the Supreme Court to start the fall term short one conservative justice, which would have benefited Democrats.
To make matters worse, there wasn't really even time to adequately investigate the allegations. Which is why I also disagree with your characterization that their position was one of a presumption of innocence, as that implies merely a presumption, not a conclusion. The GOP and most conservative commentators did not take the position that the matter should be investigated and adjudicated, but that the accusations should be discounted on their face. "Believe all women" may not be a tenable policy, but neither is "assume all women are lying for personal or political gain". Whatever problems there were with Ford's story, it was difficult to conclude that they were fabricated out of whole cloth; she had made the accusations privately on several occasions beginning in 2012, and it would be ridiculous to assume that it was all part of some long-term setup as if she had a crystal ball and knew that he'd be nominated for the Supreme Court one day. In their hast to confirm Kavanaugh before the first Monday in October, the administration tried to limit the Senate investigation as much as possible, and when several senators said they would only vote for confirmation if Kavanaugh was cleared by an FBI investigation, the administration micromanaged the investigation in an attempt to limit its scope and conclude it quickly.
Of course we have to take them seriously. The entire movement was based on the idea that, despite awareness campaigns and legal protections dating from at least the 1980s, this kind of behavior was still disturbingly common and still not taken seriously. None of the big names that came out of MeToo—Harvey Weinstein, Charlie Rose, Matt Lauer, Kevin Spacey, Mario Battali, etc.—have been exonerated, and I haven't heard any suggestion that the accusations against them were fabricated. There simply isn't any evidence that a lot of people were getting railroaded or that nobody was asking serious questions. To the extent that most of this was controversial, it was cases like Ansari's where there was no factual dispute over what happened, just whether it was appropriate. This is why I don't understand the blowback from it, which largely suggests that none of these claims are credible and that we should just ignore them, because even subjecting the accused to an investigation would be too much of a punishment. What basically happened in the end was that women came out and said that something was true, that this kind of behavior wasn't being taken seriously enough, and conservative opponents came out and told them that they had no desire to take it seriously. That's what it all boils down to.
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Two things can be true at the same time.
MeToo involved a bunch of bullshit.
This guy is by his own uncontested words a huge shit bag in multiple ways, including in ways that would make you think he's the likely sort to commit sexual assault.
The contested stuff is just a cherry on top.
Additional process information includes the fact that this stuff was out their for months and then held back by various individuals, it wasn't fabricated right now, and the fact that the people who vetted him found and knew about a lot of this and admitted it.
It's blowing my mind that people are defending this guy.
Progressives are defending this guy because Platner's just the top image in hello_human_resources.jpg
I defend this guy because I want a candidate (who has politics I don't even agree with) to win an election regardless of how much female-privilege-associated (re: "consent violations") dirt appears, so that people stop listening to women when they invoke it.
We are not the same.
(What your mind is being blown by are conservatives who don't understand this, so they're all busy debating whether it was or wasn't consensual because that's the framework they use to Protect Women. They don't understand that the entire concept of "consent" was destructive from the start and that women don't need that protection in an equal world.)
I mean you realize you are supporting a guy who supposedly said he would love an excuse to rape men, right?
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I mean I agree it's sus and this wouldn't likely be platformed as enthusiastically if it wasn't otherwise convenient to do so, but also Platner's whole existence is prettymuch 'overly horny man who tiptoes on the line of consent' and with that established it's hardly a massive stretch that he's fallen across the foul line at some point. Especially with modern conceptions of consent where it's entirely vibe-based and can be switched on and off retroactively whenever suits.
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