site banner
birb_cromble  5d ago (text post)   786 thread views

Weekly Finance Thread - 2026-07-25

A weekly thread to discuss financial matters - from personal all the way up to global.

Ground Rules

  • Remember that we're all just Internet randos. Don't bet your life savings on a hot tip from this thread.
  • Keep culture war in the culture war thread. Yes, global events may impact our personal finances, but that does not mean we have to incessantly harp on culture war aspects here. If you are going to discuss it, please stick to the practical impacts of it on an individual level.
  • Be kind. Remember that everyone here comes from different circumstances. We all have different resources available and different risk tolerances.
  • Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good. Better is better. Celebrate people when they take a step up and work to move their finances in the right direction. Don't flame out because they haven't followed what you consider the optimal path. Everybody has to start somewhere.
2
Top Bottom Old Controversial Comments
Jump in the discussion.

No email address required.

Have any of you started learning how to interpret charts? (Alternatively, how many of you have been studying charts for a long time already?)

I've advised people here to obtain basic technical analysis knowledge a few times by now, but I suspect that piece of advice has been ignored.

Depends upon which type of Efficient Market hypothesis you believe in:

  1. If you believe in Weak form EMH (all past information is there in the current price), then Technical Analysis is useless.
  2. If you believe in Semi-Strong EMH (all past and current public information is in the current price), then Fundamental Analysis is useless. But insider information (private information) is helpful in making profits, although it is illegal.
  3. If you believe in Strong form EMH (all past, current public and private information is there in the current price), then all analysis is useless.

If you are a practitioner, then you should be able to point out where it can really give an edge to a retail investor/trader (or please link to where you have already done so).

No, it does not depend on EMH or any belief in any form of it. No one cares about that model.

Practitioner? In the sense that I realize that operating without charts is like driving cross-country without availing myself of any maps. Or like a doctor not using EEGs or any imaging techniques etc.

Do point how it will help in which area? Where do you drive cross-country in the world of investing/trading?

It's a bit frustrating to have to answer to overly literal quibbling when the necessity and usefulness of charts should be completely obvious to anyone who is doing anything beyond passive index investing. If you are someone who just lump sums/dollar cost averages into a fund, well keep doing that, it's an entirely legit strategy for those who want guaranteed 'okay' results over a long timeframe without spending any time or effort on learning. In that case you don't really need a thread like this and you don't need to discuss whether charts are useful.

Interpreting a chart will help you decide what to buy, when to buy, and when to sell. To state the obvious, these decisions are extremely relevant to how much profit you realize, and how much a market/sector/stock downturn affects you. And these decisions are hard to do well. Thus we see the point of learning how to get better at it and reduce trading errors.

Edit: typo.

Sorry if my comments have felt unknowledgeable. I am not here to prove / disprove for or against technical analysis. I am genuinely asking you to show someone (me) who doesn't know technical analysis, and who doesn't feel the need to either. Their necessity and usefulness is not obvious to me.

Sometimes, a good example can go a long way in making someone understand the use of something. It demonstrates the practicality directly. Empirically.
like you said, just lump sums / dollar cost averages into a fund will give "okay" results. <-- that is an empirically practical system.
where is such an ELI5/ELI10 explanation for Technical Analysis.

My, current, assessment is that putting effort into learning technical analysis will not have any additional benefit to my investing returns. And I am ready to change that view, if you can point me towards a reasonable explanation.

I don't know of any ELI5 or youtube videos explaining it, beyond the facts I've already stated: reading a chart will help you decide what to buy, when to buy it, and when to sell it. This is not debatable.

It's mainly about pattern recognition. Human nature doesn't change. Greed, envy, fear, doesn't change. Nor does supply and demand imbalances. Thus, patterns that played out 50 or 100 years ago will play out in very similar fashion now.

Are you willing to read a book?

My, current, assessment is that putting effort into learning technical analysis will not have any additional benefit to my investing returns.

Not only the lack of additional benefit, giving technical analysis a go would actually likely detract from your investment returns.

Note that I do think technical analysis is useful, but that analogy is not really convincing. Because maps are useful because they directly chart observed land. In economic parlance, for a practitioner of fundamental analysis, charts are useful so far as they are representations of fundamentals. For the same people, charts and insights from technical analysis people are about as useful for navigation as maps from people who've never surveyed the land they're mapping and are just going by:

  • There's a lake there? Sure, I can draw that, I've seen what lakes look like, they've got lines going like this. What do you mean by "have you ever seen a lake in real life?" how is that relevant? We're making maps here, not going on vacation!

What is this place?

This website is a place for people who want to move past shady thinking and test their ideas in a court of people who don't all share the same biases. Our goal is to optimize for light, not heat; this is a group effort, and all commentators are asked to do their part.

The weekly Culture War threads host the most controversial topics and are the most visible aspect of The Motte. However, many other topics are appropriate here. We encourage people to post anything related to science, politics, or philosophy; if in doubt, post!

Check out The Vault for an archive of old quality posts. You are encouraged to crosspost these elsewhere.


Why are you called The Motte?

A motte is a stone keep on a raised earthwork common in early medieval fortifications. More pertinently, it's an element in a rhetorical move called a "Motte-and-Bailey", originally identified by philosopher Nicholas Shackel. It describes the tendency in discourse for people to move from a controversial but high value claim to a defensible but less exciting one upon any resistance to the former. He likens this to the medieval fortification, where a desirable land (the bailey) is abandoned when in danger for the more easily defended motte. In Shackel's words, "The Motte represents the defensible but undesired propositions to which one retreats when hard pressed."

On The Motte, always attempt to remain inside your defensible territory, even if you are not being pressed.


New post guidelines

If you're posting something that isn't related to the culture war, we encourage you to post a thread for it. A submission statement is highly appreciated, but isn't necessary for text posts or links to largely-text posts such as blogs or news articles; if we're unsure of the value of your post, we might remove it until you add a submission statement. A submission statement is required for non-text sources (videos, podcasts, images).

Culture war posts go in the culture war thread; all links must either include a submission statement or significant commentary. Bare links without those will be removed.

If in doubt, please post it!


Rules


Recommended Posts And Communities

Recommended Realtime Chats