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PaperclipPerfector  6d ago (text post)   18376 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of August 3, 2026

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The war is still going on. Iran obviously was pretty badly damaged, but the Iranian regime wins if the US gives up. If they toll the strait (with Oman's connivance or not), they win pretty big. If they just retain the HEU and keep the US from interfering in the future, they win; they'll start their nuclear program back up and nuke Tel Aviv if they can't restrain themselves... New York, D.C., Haifa, and Tel Aviv if they can hold out until they can get more bombs and some really long range ICBMs.

If they lose the HEU and the US gets to keep watching, they lose. If the regime falls, they obviously lose (the people of Iran will be materially best off in that case, though having bad leftist/modern Western values forced upon them is a danger). But Iran can still win this. I don't think they will -- the US demonstrating that commerce could be maintained (though degraded) regardless of their shooting at it took away their best card. But a big midterm Democratic win could see Trump forced to give up anyway.

Trump could also do something stupid like agree that Iran and Oman toll the strait in order to get a deal. He really likes deals.

Iran's economic situation almost doesn't matter. As long as they can keep the IRGC running, they can absorb a LOT of civilian hardship, and they've got 90 million civilians to feed into that fire. They have enough state capacity to keep the civilians from doing anything about it, too. Not giving a shit about your civilian population is a major advantage in the short term. So the US, to actually win, is going to have to do something -- either invade, or resume killing officials until either the regime falls apart or whoever is on top has both the power and the will to make a deal they'll actually follow. Trump can make as many deals as he wants with the people he's been negotiating with for months, they're going to break them all anyway. The previous MoA, though not a "US surrender" (because it had them turning over the HEU), was really good for Iran, but it wasn't good enough for them to follow. They're not getting better now unless Trump REALLY REALLY wants a deal.

they'll start their nuclear program back up and nuke Tel Aviv if they can't restrain themselves... New York, D.C., Haifa, and Tel Aviv if they can hold out until they can get more bombs and some really long range ICBMs.

Basically, you claim they're suicidal, but long-termist – their entire project is to last long enough to kill maximum Jews, ideally all Jews, on their way out?
Do they nuke Lakewood too, if they get really really many nukes?

Amalek theory at its finest.

If Iran is rational geopolitical player, why it still cares about the Palestine issue, not only in words but also in substantial and costly deeds?

Egypt that is just next to Israel could throw their Muslim brothers to the Zionist sharks and benefitted greatly.

Iran is a rational player that's trying to be a regional power. Egypt is a rational piece.

Lots of opportunities in the neighborhood for aspiring great power expansion and empire building that would not cross world's first super power and their greatest ally.

But this game is not about painting map and gaining high score, this is about achievement of liberating the second holiest land and third holiest mosque. Yes, this is not supposed to be easy, even if you are experienced player!

Basically, you claim they're suicidal, but long-termist – their entire project is to last long enough to kill maximum Jews, ideally all Jews, on their way out?

They wish to destroy the State of Israel and the United States (the Little Satan and the Great Satan, as they put it), not necessarily kill maximum Jews.

I suspect they want to survive more than they wish to destroy the Little Satan and the Great Satan.

The war is still going on. Iran obviously was pretty badly damaged, but the Iranian regime wins if the US gives up. If they toll the strait (with Oman's connivance or not), they win pretty big. If they just retain the HEU and keep the US from interfering in the future, they win; they'll start their nuclear program back up and nuke Tel Aviv if they can't restrain themselves... New York, D.C., Haifa, and Tel Aviv if they can hold out until they can get more bombs and some really long range ICBMs.

Yeah, if America surrenders for no good reason Iran would technically win. Why would America do that?

Trump could also do something stupid like agree that Iran and Oman toll the strait in order to get a deal. He really likes deals.

Trump could also shoot someone on Fifth Avenue I guess. A meteor could fall on the Pentagon.

Iran's economic situation almost doesn't matter. As long as they can keep the IRGC running, they can absorb a LOT of civilian hardship, and they've got 90 million civilians to feed into that fire.

War runs on economics, you actually can't continue fighting a war when your economic base runs out. When Iran is locked out global trade they are not going to scrounge under the cushions to keep the war going indefinitely, they are going to lose.

resume killing officials until either the regime falls apart or whoever is on top has both the power and the will to make a deal they'll actually follow

This is currently America's strategy.

War runs on economics, you actually can't continue fighting a war when your economic base runs out.

There's a lot of ruin in a nation of 90 million, and Iran seems quite capable of depleting it all. Their economic base will not run out fast enough.

resume killing officials until either the regime falls apart or whoever is on top has both the power and the will to make a deal they'll actually follow

This is currently America's strategy.

Which officials have been killed recently? The people we've been negotiating with don't seem to have changed in a while.

Yeah, if America surrenders for no good reason Iran would technically win. Why would America do that?

Because Trump is a cowardly fool. He's done great domestically but he's cucked to iran and chickened out too many times to have any faith in him right now.

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