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PaperclipPerfector  6d ago (text post)   18229 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of August 3, 2026

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Donald Trump Won the Iran War

From an essay endorsed by Pete Hegseth on twitter:

The victor gets to define victory.

[...]

For Trump, a win is to squash Iran’s capacity to destabilize the region, creating space for regional collective security, reconstruction, and economic resilience, providing a long-term deterrent against a resurgent regime. From the Abraham Accords to the work of the Board of Peace, and major economic initiatives like IMEC and Tripp, the expectation is that the real measure of Iranian defeat is if these initiatives flourish. That’s the theory of victory.

Critics say that Iran is winning because they now control the Straits of Hormuz. In reality it appears that trade in the Gulf is returning to pre-war levels as it risks the Straits or bypasses them entirely:

Energy Resilience. Only a year ago, the Iranian regime could threaten to shut down up to a third or more of the world’s oil exports. Even today, while fighting in the Strait of Hormuz still lingers, that is no longer true. Regional exports are rebounding, by some estimates up to two-thirds of pre-war levels. The UAE, for example, is already exporting at 85% of pre-war levels.

Critics say that the Iran War has driven America's allies to shake off American leadership. In fact we see the opposite:

Reconstruction. Recently, the Board of Peace announced, over the objections of Iran, an unprecedented agreement to disarm Hamas, a precursor to the reconstruction of Gaza. The board also announced a pilot reconstruction project in Gaza to begin in November. Further, the U.S. is leading a trilateral framework with Israel and Lebanon and aggressively working to normalize relations with Syria.

America recently carried out strikes in Iraq, working with the Saudi military, to push out Iranian militias, and is now concluding multi-billion dollar business deals:

Economic integration. The U.S. and Iraq recently announced over $60 billion in future economic deals. Washington also trumpeted an additional multi-million dollar investment in TRIPP in Armenia.

[...]

Security Cooperation. The U.S. and Saudi Arabia recently took action against Iran-backed militias in Iraq. Saudi Arabia just announced the establishment of a multinational coalition to provide maritime security in the Red Sea. Israeli recently expanded defense cooperation with the UAE.

Meanwhile, how's America's blockade going?

Iran’s oil exports stall and Kharg Island idles under US blockade

No tankers have loaded at Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export terminal, for at least a week, according to shipping and satellite data providers, suggesting the renewed US naval blockade has brought Tehran’s crude sales to a halt.

Washington reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports in mid-July after an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz collapsed. Kharg Island, which is critical to Iran’s oil industry, fell idle on July 31, according to ship tracking company Kpler and consultancy Energy Aspects.

It's possible that Iran has been unable to successfully sell it's oil for even longer:

United Against Nuclear Iran (Uani), a Washington-based lobbying group which tracks Iranian oil shipments, said it had not observed any tanker laden with Iranian crude successfully leaving the Gulf since July 12.

Iran is still able to make money from oil tankers that left the Gulf during the last ceasefire and are currently in Asia, but that crude will all be sold soon and Iran will start to be squeezed even more, unless they come to a deal with the US or somehow engineer a military miracle.

Iran is facing inflation of ~87.9%, which is to say, the average Iranian has lost almost half of their wealth compared to this point last year:

Iran’s point-to-point inflation rate reached 87.9% in July, while annual inflation surged to 66% and the spring unemployment rate rose to 9.1%. Meanwhile, escalating medical expenses have forced an increasing number of patients to seek care at under-resourced public health centers.

According to the latest report by the Statistical Center of Iran, Iranian households spent an average of 87.9% more on an identical basket of goods and services compared to the same month last year. The agency also reported an annual inflation rate of 66%, up from 62% in June. Worldnews analysis

How's Iran's Nuclear Program doing? The New York Times put out this report today concluding that Iran's program is "slowed but not stopped":

[https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/07/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-program.html](Trump Vowed to Thwart Iran’s Nuclear Program. Here’s Where That Stands.)

However, under the headline, here's where things stand:

Because Iran has barred U.N. inspections of its most sensitive nuclear sites — a key part of any eventual peace deal — the precise fate of its highly enriched nuclear fuel is unknown. And despite strikes on three key nuclear sites in 2025 and 2026, Tehran appears to have retained a stockpile of enough near weapons-grade fuel to quickly develop as many as 10 nuclear bombs, according to U.N. inspectors.

Iran has enough nuclear material to manufacture 10 nuclear bombs? Wow, what are they going to do with it?

The Isfahan complex was heavily damaged during U.S. and Israeli airstrikes against Iran in June 2025. Currently, two facilities to convert or enrich uranium remain significantly damaged, but the stockpile likely remains there, according to the Iran Nuclear Monitor, which runs an ongoing assessment of the country’s nuclear capabilities.

American intelligence agencies have determined that Iran could get to the stockpile, through a very narrow access point, although it is under constant U.S. surveillance.

America destroyed Iran's capability to "convert or enrich" that uranium, and then locked the uranium that remains deep under collapsed tunnels that can be bombed again as soon as Iran tries to retrieve it.

Iran long considered its deeply buried nuclear enrichment plant at Fordo its best-protected and most advanced site. It was badly damaged, and potentially rendered inoperable, by 12 massive bombs in the June 2025 attacks, according to U.S. intelligence assessments last year.

The sites that were bombed last year appear to remain inoperable, which is to say that, after America bombed them, they have not been used.

(The New York Times then concludes that this is both a significant setback and also doesn't actually matter at all. Well, that's what I heard three months ago. I'm sure that three months from now, people will still be saying that Iran can build a nuke anytime it wants to, it just doesn't want to.)

So here's where we're at now:

  • Iran is suffering an acute economic crisis and is further away from acquiring nukes than it was before the war
  • Iran's leverage over the Strait of Hormuz is shrinking
  • Iran's military strength is waning
  • Trade in the Gulf and across the global economy is continuing almost uninterrupted
  • America's leverage in the Middle East is growing, not shrinking

Trump, Iran, and Oman are apparently on the cusp of announcing another deal to reopen the Strait. But it increasingly doesn't matter: Iran needs to make a deal because their economic crisis is so acute, while America and the rest of the Gulf can shrug it all off as increasingly a minor inconvenience.

Trump won. Trump was right from the beginning. The Iran war is below-the-fold news now.

Iran will never toll the strait, Iran will never bring the global economy to its knees, Iran will never have nuclear weapons. Iran cannot defeat America militarily or overcome the blockade. The Iranian regime will eventually fall, or make significant concessions, or surrender, or continue to limp along losing strength and relevance -- it doesn't matter which. Either way, Iran loses, America wins, the writing is on the wall.

Trump won. Iran lost.

The war is still going on. Iran obviously was pretty badly damaged, but the Iranian regime wins if the US gives up. If they toll the strait (with Oman's connivance or not), they win pretty big. If they just retain the HEU and keep the US from interfering in the future, they win; they'll start their nuclear program back up and nuke Tel Aviv if they can't restrain themselves... New York, D.C., Haifa, and Tel Aviv if they can hold out until they can get more bombs and some really long range ICBMs.

If they lose the HEU and the US gets to keep watching, they lose. If the regime falls, they obviously lose (the people of Iran will be materially best off in that case, though having bad leftist/modern Western values forced upon them is a danger). But Iran can still win this. I don't think they will -- the US demonstrating that commerce could be maintained (though degraded) regardless of their shooting at it took away their best card. But a big midterm Democratic win could see Trump forced to give up anyway.

Trump could also do something stupid like agree that Iran and Oman toll the strait in order to get a deal. He really likes deals.

Iran's economic situation almost doesn't matter. As long as they can keep the IRGC running, they can absorb a LOT of civilian hardship, and they've got 90 million civilians to feed into that fire. They have enough state capacity to keep the civilians from doing anything about it, too. Not giving a shit about your civilian population is a major advantage in the short term. So the US, to actually win, is going to have to do something -- either invade, or resume killing officials until either the regime falls apart or whoever is on top has both the power and the will to make a deal they'll actually follow. Trump can make as many deals as he wants with the people he's been negotiating with for months, they're going to break them all anyway. The previous MoA, though not a "US surrender" (because it had them turning over the HEU), was really good for Iran, but it wasn't good enough for them to follow. They're not getting better now unless Trump REALLY REALLY wants a deal.

they'll start their nuclear program back up and nuke Tel Aviv if they can't restrain themselves... New York, D.C., Haifa, and Tel Aviv if they can hold out until they can get more bombs and some really long range ICBMs.

Basically, you claim they're suicidal, but long-termist – their entire project is to last long enough to kill maximum Jews, ideally all Jews, on their way out?
Do they nuke Lakewood too, if they get really really many nukes?

Amalek theory at its finest.

If Iran is rational geopolitical player, why it still cares about the Palestine issue, not only in words but also in substantial and costly deeds?

Egypt that is just next to Israel could throw their Muslim brothers to the Zionist sharks and benefitted greatly.

Iran is a rational player that's trying to be a regional power. Egypt is a rational piece.

Basically, you claim they're suicidal, but long-termist – their entire project is to last long enough to kill maximum Jews, ideally all Jews, on their way out?

They wish to destroy the State of Israel and the United States (the Little Satan and the Great Satan, as they put it), not necessarily kill maximum Jews.

I suspect they want to survive more than they wish to destroy the Little Satan and the Great Satan.

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