This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
I disagree. Knowing that human endeavor is going to end up redundant in less than a decade has some obvious implications as far as I'm concerned.
I wouldn't quit my job to retrain in something else, the opportunity cost will never be recouped. I have to worry less about saving up for college for my kids - they never need to attend one for credentialing purposes. Any health related concerns that would take decades to kick in become far less pressing.
It should drastically change your priorities and medium and longterm planning. That's happened to me. But I prepare for as many scenarios as I can, and at least in my case, I don't need to do anything particularly out of the ordinary.
That being said, I should max out my ISA. I am not immune to procrastination.
What medium or long term planning is it changing for you? It’s not like a big drought or a tsunami or even a civilizational breakdown (or major war) where you can theoretically prepare if you have the means. I know people who are prepping, some at considerable cost, but they’re prepping for some kind of fantasy The Road type future which now seems unlikely. ASI will be far more powerful and wide reaching, its power will stretch beyond geography and the limits of our own civilization. Even the example you give (say, deciding not to commit to an expensive degree or career move) doesn’t necessarily make sense. If none of it matters, maybe you decide to do that masters in philosophy or take the job in some remote and low paid location anyway, just for fun.
As for human endeavor, I think things will be fine (absent x risk, which it now seems is impossible to control and so with which we are at the mercy of fate) if everything is automated. There will always be interesting things to do - think of the amateur woodworkers making flimsier furniture than IKEA, but having a great time doing so. Most of us will never be (close to) the best at anything, so ‘the best’ going from being a human to an AI doesn’t affect us in the same way that it does Terence Tao.
If we have a worst-case scenario, or just any of the really bad ones, we're fucked. A hidden bunker will just mean you die last.
If things go swimmingly, then the worrying would have been pointless - in hindsight.
That means I think it still makes sense to follow general, option-preserving strategies. That covers the increasingly unlikely "business as usual" worldlines, and shelters against socio-economic/political upheaval as the changes (good, bad or meh) promulgate.
In my context, that means I just continue being a doctor, progressing through training so I keep making more money. Money is the most general of strategies. It can be exchanged for goods and services, including more durable barter goods if shit really hits the fan.
I like money, you know. And want a family, which is expensive. I can't stress enough how the "correct" course of action depends on someone's priorities, which I am really not in a position to dictate. If you want to go be a hobo on a tropical beach, be my guest. My approach minimizes my hindsight regret.
I continue deriving some amount of satisfaction from my career, and regardless of how this ends, I'll say that I did something important while that meant something.
Surely that's the very best one can do, if "everyone dies" is what's happening?
(even leaving aside the possibility that it's actually almost everyone dies, ofc)
It may be a mercy to die sooner than live your final years going insane from boredom and hopelessness. Congratulations being the last holdout, there’s no one else to admire or seethe in your victory.
More options
Context Copy link
"Dies last" means "a few days later", tops. Not worth it. Might as well spend the money and time you would have used for the bunker having fun with friends and family before the end.
More options
Context Copy link
If.
It remains an open question, and I'm not as pessimistic as some.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
I wasn’t arguing against the ‘business as usual’ strategy at all, for what that’s worth - after all, that’s what I’m doing.
But I was curious about the additional or different preparations you’ve made / steps you’ve taken that you referenced. The changes to plans.
I would have signed up for cryonics, before I was middle aged. Not much point in that now. I will reconsider only if things seem to peter out.
I have accelerated my long-standing goal of marrying and having kids. In a slower world, I'd have been okay with waiting a few extra years.
I should be putting all or most of my savings in an index fund. I've been procrastinating on that.
I am more open to risky medical treatments, to a degree, because the longterm damage is more likely to be fixable.
At a recent nadir of my depression, I reminded myself that I want to see how things end, or begin, really. That we'll find a cure for treatment resistant depression, if existing interventions fail. That I just needed to live long enough to see that through.
Well, I got better anyway. Mostly because of my own actions rather than anything any other shrink did for me. If that doesn't last, I can look forward to a technological fix in a very reasonable amount of time.
None of this is really life-changing. Which is something I've always noted when people argue that believing in an imminent techno-singularity requires drastic changes in behavior or outlook, therefore this discredits the belief in the first place. Beyond retarded as an argument, but also false when you consider I've been expecting this for a while, it's priced in, and I've had a pretty normal life anyway.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link