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Notes -
The Greenland Deal has been signed and its full text has been released. As expected, it is mostly concerned with military matters. Some highlights:
Overall, it seems pretty decent and exactly what the U.S. will need to maintain strength as the Arctic becomes increasingly relevant as a missile route from Russia/China. I took a quick look at the prior agreements between America and Denmark w/r/t Greenland, and this does appear to be a meaningful improvement. Prior agreements designated Pituffik (then called Thule) as the only permissible American presence on the island. This 2026 agreement is the first to stipulate the creation of new bases and offer a path for continued expansion. It also strikes me as much warmer in tone. Prior agreements had all sorts of trepidatious language, whereas this one is far more amenable to the idea of a U.S. military presence. While I'm not one to cheer for wanton expansion of the military, this does seem to be a strategic boon, and something Trump can rightfully praise.
Considering the past discussion thread on the topic, I thought it would be fun to go over the main points of contention and see how they match what was signed.
First off:
Is this just the 1951 deal but with a Trump signature?
A lot of people (me included) speculated that this would be a nothingburger of a deal to give Trump the appearance of a win and thus hopefully bury this entire debacle. This is not quite the case. While many details remain the same, the new agreement does give America rights, including military rights, that did not exist before. I don't know that I would necessarily call these concessions, but it is clear that America did actually manage to get some of their wishes fulfilled here.
But as many suspected, Trump was greatly exaggerating in his tweet.
Does the deal actually give the US the right to veto foreign investments into Greenland?
This is not the case. From the agreement:
So in practice we are targeting specifically Chinese investments, while EU and NATO countries have all the same opportunities they did before. So the Veto is at best limited in scope. The historical allies can do as they please. Furthermore, the duty to enforce this falls on Denmark and Greenland:
Whether this benefits the US more than Denmark (outsourcing costs vs direct control) is up for debate.
What did Denmark gain from this?
A sigh of relief. The US has confirmed that they view Denmark and Greenland as sovereign entities with a right to self determination. And this deal implies a stop to American aggression. But for Denmark, this is just a return to the pre-threaths status quo, likely with some lingering uncertainty of "what will he do next?". The real winner here is Greenland. The fact that they got to sit at the table, and the deal takes potential Greenlandic independence into account, signals that all parties view them as a legitimate third party. A show of respect that was not present in the 1951 agreement.
So did Trump win? Did the Dealmaker in Chief manage to use his negotiating skills in a way that benefits America?
On the surface, yes. Trump successfully strongarmed Denmark and Greenland into signing an agreement which benefited the US without needing to give up anything in return. Big win, MAGA's rejoice.
However, the actual changes to the status quo are pretty small, and most (possibly all) of what the US wanted (no Chinese investments and greater military presence) could have been achieved without the threats and hostile statements. The previous agreement already gave them the right to build bases and man them, Denmark was fighting against Chinese investments, and more importantly highly values their relationship with the US. Overall, the White House could have likely achieved their goals here by simply asking nicely. Instead, Trump went in hard. Antagonizing long time allies and implying that he would take by force what he could not get through negotiations. In other words, while nothing material was lost Trump sacrificed soft power and goodwill to achieve marginal gains that could have been reached through more diplomatic means. If this was really important, America could have started to rebuild and man bases there as soon as Trump came in to power, without directly antagonizing anyone.
My takeaway
I don't think anyone won here. Yes, in isolation this deal is good for the US and bad for Denmark. However, the process of getting there has involved alienating long time allies and losing a lot of goodwill that Europeans had for America. Considering that the gains are fairly marginal (the 1951 deal already massively favored American interests) this does not seem worth it. But as far as I can tell this type of deal is emblematic of Trump's negotiating style. He clearly believes that if someone else is hurting, he is winning. You see this with the invasion of Iran and the aggressive tariffs he placed on American trade partners. Whether he could achieve his goals without harming others in the process, or whether there are long term costs that might outweigh the gains, just does not factor into the calculations.
I hope that this deal marks a focus away from Greenland. And I suspect that we will see more situations like this, where Trump starts a process in which both America and the other party ends up worse for the wear, several times more during the remaining two years of his reign.
Reminder that this Greenland drama played out in Trump’s first term (c. 2018 or 2019 iirc) and everyone laughed at Trump and was astounded that this could ever be a real issue. Greenland! He was a lot nicer then as well, I believe he had conducted to negotiate with the Danes politely in private and then it all leaked to the press.
The issue then was that he wanted to treat Greenland like property that could be purchased. His approach showed a lack of understanding of how the kingdom of Denmark was structured, as well as a complete lack of respect for the inhabitants of Greenland. Him being ridiculed had nothing to do with wanting to protect American interests or increase military presence, and everything to do with him looking like a bumbling idiot who thought that he could treat international diplomacy like a property deal.
Sometimes I think that most people in democratic societies just want to be pandered to.
Ok, Denmark is a very special boy with very important traditions we understand and respect. We apologize for trying to purchase territory in a mutually-beneficial transaction, and we apologize for putting the mashed potatoes next to the peas. In the spirit of understanding we would like to propose instead a schmurchase of Greenlandic schmerritory in something we would like to call a schmansaction, which we only reserve for our bestest most special boy allies in the whole world. Instead of offering money for territory we would like instead to control some pieces of Greenland for which we are willing to reward you with community investment and strategic support.
But this isn't true actually because if that had been the issue this would have all been handled in private six or seven years ago. It was treated as a ridiculous punchline which can be easily verified by reading the old stories.
AP sources: Trump has talked about buying Greenland for US
(Side note: The AP will never correct themselves for being demonstrably wrong. It's also extremely unlikely that the majority of readers will ever update. You're supposed to get the impression that Trump is ridiculous, or not to be taken seriously, or absurd, and if later it comes out that he was earnest or even right it will never be conceded.)
Danish PM: Trump’s interest in buying Greenland is ‘absurd’
Trump rightfully took offense at this because his comments up until this point had mostly been exploratory, made in private, or casual:
President Trump Eyes a New Real-Estate Purchase: Greenland
Of course it was the Europeans who got nasty first and with the usual selective memory now all anybody remembers is that Trump was mean.
Calling what Trump did “mean” is not a good faith argument. He declined to rule out using military force. He essentially threatened to invade them. Just like saying he was mean to Canada wouldn’t be good faith. He talked about them being the 51 state. Threatening to annex territory of your allies is insane behavior and a massive escalation. Doing that because you got offended over another country’s response to your “deal” is not a proportional response. I don’t see how you can’t see this from their point of view.
I'm not a fan of the guy, but as far as I can tell, he has a pattern of "declining to rule out" generally that I assume stems from the business world, and keeping options open.
I think journalists have noticed this and run with it, because "Trump refuses to rule out [shocking thing]" headlines are scary and sell papers. Not to say that some of the specifics aren't ill-advised or major policy changes, either: the Greenland thing seems dumb, from what I've read.
But "strategic ambiguity" has been a (IMO reasonable) policy elsewhere for a long time, and frequently attempts to force a commitment ahead of time are intended to limit options in the future. "Would the US enter a hot war with China to defend Taiwan? If yes, exactly how forcefully?" That gives away a lot to anyone planning an invasion. A "no first use" nuclear policy sounds great, but really limits escalation options even defensively.
Correct; the US (not just Trump, this is an existing pattern) will almost never "rule out" the use of military force in any dispute ahead of time. That's why they asked Trump to do so -- they knew he would give the standard answer and then they could beat him up for it. But he eventually did rule out the use of force in Greenland.
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Yes, but there's a time and a place. To take a deliberately extreme example, a businessman who declines to rule out raping your wife isn't keeping his options open; that's not an option you're supposed to have. Or to want, for that matter.
No, if you’re trying to deal with someone and your counterparty suddenly loudly asks you if you’ll rule out doing some shocking thing, the correct answer is no and you should understand why. It’s obnoxious behavior; you return serve.
Anyone stupid enough to be fooled by this sort of rhetorical trick has already been tricked the previous 3,000 times, so this will simply be reason #3,001 to hate you.
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This is how Trump responded after being disrespected. The original dispute was that Trump mused to some aides about the possibility of purchasing Greenland, which everyone treated as a priori absurd. That was 7 years ago, it's only now that Trump's ideas have been taken seriously.
Maybe he should have clarified the misunderstanding instead of assuming disrespect. Or is that only an onus placed on countries that aren't USA?
"Assuming disrespect"? Danish politicians called Trump absurd and crazy because he wanted to negotiate a land deal. Danish politicians were far, far more disrespectful to Trump than Trump ever was to them, unless the concept of wanting to negotiate a land deal is inherently disrespectful.
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But the idea of selling Greenland was absurd. It is just not possible within the framework of how the kingdom of Denmark operates. Trump acted with complete disregard for established international norms and zero understanding of the country he was attempting to engage in diplomacy with. Of course the reaction was utter dismissal. I guess Denmark and the rest of Europe could have been nicer about it, but as far as I can tell America was the country demanding to be handled with kid gloves, and then threw a tantrum.
This is the entire problem with Europe. It never occurred to you to say that there's been a misunderstanding -- straight to ridicule. Trump asked for something that he thought was reasonable and Europe's response is to laugh. They could have said that a sale wasn't possible but another deal would be -- Trump is clearly capable of working with that since this is in fact the deal that has finally been reached. Moreover it's still not clear to me why proposing a sale is even ridiculous in the first place -- what is in "complete disregard for established international norms" about proposing a land deal?
Here are my defenses for the Europeans:
It's not ridiculous, the problem was that it got leaked and made public before the pre-alignment/coalition-building or exploration of the solution space could have been done.
Let's say I have farmland in a faraway state, you already have some farming equipment put there based on a deal I made with you a long time ago. Then you come and say "I want to own that land", and I say "Farm is not for sale. It’s an absurd discussion. That’s where the conversation ends.", why is it then my job to tell you "but another deal could be made"? I also don't see much ridicule here, I think it's more of the outrage of someone thinking they're being bullied (cause you were flashing the bazooka on your truck) and lashing out.
I actually rather agree with this. I think a lot of people c. 2019 treated Trump wanting Greenland as a priori ridiculous, and there are a lot of people now who are committed to defending that first pass as reasonable. It wasn't but I don't think it was any particularly well-thought-out principle, and I think a lot of the discussion that's followed is rationalizing something that was never rational.
Because we're not strangers. The US and Denmark are supposed to be allies and partners. How would you feel if we were roommates? You say I take up too much space in the fridge, I say you're ridiculous and refuse to negotiate, also I have a spare fridge in the garage I could plug in I refuse to tell you about. That's actually unnecessarily hostile on my part. You say you want more control over Arctic security, I say Greenland is not for sale and it's ridiculous for you to ask, also I'm totally willing to give you most of what you want but refuse to tell you so -- well are we allies or not?
I think a lot of this is over-analyzed actually, because clearly Denmark was willing to make a deal. It's either the case that background negotiations have been happening the whole time, or that Trump's hardball attitude worked in bringing the Danes to the table.
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are you seriously telling me to not expect the president of the most powerful country in the world to be capable of basic diplomacy?
Trump was conducting basic diplomacy.
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Maybe they should put someone who doesn't make very obvious misunderstandings in charge of Trump's social media.
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What kind of response do you expect to that kind of attitude?
A little ridicule is appropriate when people assert that trying to make good-faith negotiations like adults actually shows "a complete lack of respect". Maybe I'm the one being fussy but I actually get very tired of people claiming to take offense at fundamentally normal behavior. It's normal to spitball and fantasize, it's normal to negotiate, it's normal to have stipulations and reservations, it's normal to ask for something and it's normal to say no. What's not normal is the idea that even asking is inherently disrespectful. Come on, user Bombadil said that a lack of understanding is deserving of ridicule, this is one step away from saying it's not my job to educate you. Maybe I'm the one being fussy, maybe I'm the old man now decrying social mores -- but I think the attitude of hostile ridicule is actually a big problem today and itself deserves ridicule.
Alternative hypothesis: you may have a very unique idea of what constitutes normal. The modern first world has a very, very strong norm of borders not moving, for obvious reasons. What Trump has been doing with Denmark and Canada is like shitting on the pavement and then being surprised that everyone's offended or mocking: doesn't everyone shit? Yes, but in a very different place and manner.
It's not normal to spitball about annexing territory, and hasn't been normal to negotiate the possibility since the 1940s, especially when you accompany those 'negotiations' with obvious threats.
We have a strong norm against wars of conquest, conveniently imposed by the West only after it won World War II and arranged the world to our taste. Even then, borders change all the time. It is literally basic normal diplomacy to negotiate land deals with other countries, although they are not usually on the same scale as what Trump proposed with Greenland. Consider: Hong Kong returning to the Chinese, exclaves and enclaves along the Indian-Pakistani border, the reunification of East and West Germany, the brief union of Egypt and Syria in the 60s. Nobody considers it ridiculous when Belgium and the Netherlands swap territory. America was built on land deals, I don't think anybody serious would propose that the Louisiana Purchase is absurd.
It was all very normal: America has interests in Greenland, Denmark has a lot of debts there, maybe we can do a deal? The European overreaction looks even more ridiculous now that a deal has in fact proven possible, because Trump, it turns out, is not immune to reason and compromise.
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