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Goodguy  11hr ago (text post)   Edited 8hr ago   3989 thread views

Midterms Megathread

Cause otherwise midterms discussion will be scattered around a bunch of separate Culture War thread posts. And it's nice to have more off-the-cuff rapid reactions in a dedicated megathread.

The first thing I've noticed so far: if the exit polls are correct, Americans are very pessimistic about AI.

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I think the odds that Trump is gone within a year are around 95%. (And I hope this prediction is as accurate as my election predictions from yesterday.... because the only chance for Republicans to win in 2028 is if they get rid of Trump.)

95%??? What gives you such confidence? Very few presidents have actually been removed from office.

Republicans will be in a far better position to win the next election if they remove Trump from office. If they remove him from office (or more likely, he will resign prior to being convicted), they will lose maybe 1-5% of their base in the next election from the "betrayal", but gain 5-10% which they would otherwise not be able to get if Trump remains President.

And Democrats are on track to have 55-57 Senate seats (I predicted 55 seats would be the most likely outcome, and Murkowski might switch parties), so they will only need 10-12 safe-seat Republican Senators to get on board to remove him from office.

I can guarantee you that there are at least that many Republican Senators that would be delighted to get rid of albatross Trump, especially after what an asshole he's been to so many of them, and their own personal disdain for him.

I also predict that Elon Musk, their biggest donor, along with Thiel and some other big donors, will happily support removing Trump.

So it's a no-brainer that this is going to happen. Trump can even simply resign for "health reasons" or whatever.

And there's historical precedent for Republicans to potentially bounce back. Nixon resigned as soon as enough Republicans were willing to vote to convict, and then his VP only lost the 1976 Presidential election by 1%. It's not a good chance for Republicans in 2028, but at least it's a chance.

I can guarantee you that there are at least that many Republican Senators that would be delighted to get rid of albatross Trump

How's that supposed to work? The only reason he's an "albatross" is he listened to the neocons and went all in on Iran. Would any of the non-Trumpian Republicans avoid that?

We're gonna have to find a way, because it looks to me like the Trump Train is about as dead as it can possibly be. There's bitter choices available on the best path forward, especially since Progressives are pushing all the various closure methods available to them and there's probably no path forward that avoids them all, but Trump at this point appears to be a fatal liability. He's never going to admit fault or error either, and will probably sabotage any attempts to route around him.

He fucked us, and he fucked is in the stupidest, most easily avoidable, least justifiable, most stereotypically awful way possible.

Sit down for a moment, think about how fucked the political situation is in America and how difficult and expensive it would be to fix, and then ponder the amount of Republican political capital we've lost to wars in the middle east. It's a fucking Greek tragedy.

It made some strategic sense to be militarily involved in the middle east, if only to secure oil. Since the shale oil revolution and wind/solar/nuclear energy advances, it makes almost no sense since we are or can be a net oil/energy producer. We should import cheap oil if we can, but if we can't then just turn on the shale faucets and let the middle east be someone else's problem.

The unfortunate thing is that I honestly get it- you have one remaining country in the Near East before you have a complete system of alliances subordinate to the US (and hence, a complete system of oil-producing nations that can be instructed not to sell to China or to the EU- something that was already done with Venezuela and [what is currently being done to] Canada, and something I don't see reversing under Blue rule either).

One notes that, in case of war with a particular strategically vital American ally in the South China Sea with an enemy that can outproduce your own forces, that it would be in one's military interest if you can Thanos-snap away all the fuel they'd use to get there. Doesn't matter how many engines you build if you can't run them (a military that depends on batteries is not practical- energy density and refueling speed are still way too slow for that).

Russia isn't ready to supply a Chinese expedition to Taiwan yet, won't be for some time, and thanks to the Ukrainian war (that the US intentionally provoked, mind you) will be in a much better position to defend against potential Chinese aggression on its eastern border if the Chinese decide they'll do it themselves (provided the Russians actually bother to invest in manufacturing the newest smart mortar systems [that is, drones] completely outside the Chinese supply chain). The PLA hasn't fought a hot war in 40 years.

But it needed to have been one thing at a time. Either sacrifice the economy of Northern states until Southern Ontario turfs the Federal government entirely in favor of Anschluss (or are rendered so economically irrelevant there's no need and you can just impose terms that way), or destroy Iran. The US is very powerful, but it is not '90s powerful, and I can absolutely believe Trump is hindered by a mindset that hasn't updated beyond the '90s.

For many people, you have your mindset locked in during middle age (or even younger) and that's what you carry with you into your old age. We beat the crap out of Iraq in 1990, and then after deposing Maduro in Venezuela it seemed like we were just as strong as we were back then, but with even better fighter jets and other military tech. With Iran, it was probably easy to believe that their regime was shaky and just needed one strong kick for it to all come crumbling down.

With Iran, it was probably easy to believe that their regime was shaky and just needed one strong kick for it to all come crumbling down.

And honestly, I don't even think trying that is bad. If the first two are layups, seems reasonable to try for a third.

Yet, if it was stronger, now you're stuck in the Soviet Union that is still somehow managing to supply itself while needing to fight on 3 other fronts at the same time. Which, well...

For many people, you have your mindset locked in during middle age (or even younger) and that's what you carry with you into your old age.

Which is how you end up with "firm handshake economy and self-flagellate for being co-generational with the last of the old-style racists" Boomers. Trump is 80, but his advisors sure aren't.

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