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Nobody seems to talk about the RU-UA war here anymore. I guess it's because we're saturated with it everywhere else.
Yet given that Ukraine has launched what is unquestionably the largest offensive since the Kharkov surge in late September when it took back wide swathes of territory, I believe a status update is warranted.
First, it is immediately clear that the Russians are much more prepared this time. The area that Ukraine took back in autumn was barely defended by a rag-tag group of volunteer militias. That was a big lapse by the Russian general command, which also led to the big mobilisation drive. This time is different.
Even pro-UA accounts like Julian Röpcke are conceding that Ukraine is losing lots of armored vehicles with very marginal gains. Western officials like the CIA chief or the US foreign secretary have all pointed out that the aftermath of the offensive will shape upcoming negotiations. Given that Ukraine has little to show for their offensive thus far, this inevitably casts a dark shadow on any prospects for large territorial compromises. Why would the Russians give the Ukrainians something at the negotiating table which they cannot gain on the battlefield?
To my mind, the best that Ukraine can hope for now is a stalemate. This war has shown that in the era of ubiquitous ISR capabilities, trying to surprise your enemy is much harder if he's on his toes (which the Russians weren't in the autumn, but they are now). Consequently, offensives are simply far costlier and harder. The Russians had the same problems, which is why capturing Bakhmut took such an absurdly long time.
For those of us who would want to see a negotiated settlement, the reality is that neither side is running out of money or arms. Russia is spending a moderate amount of money and the West can keep supplying Ukraine enough to keep going for years if the decision is made that defensive action is the way to go. The only way this war ends is if the West tells Ukraine to give in and accept large territorial losses in return for a settlement and possibly security guarantees. Such an outcome would be nearly impossible to sell to Ukraine's domestic public and would almost certainly end the career of whoever was leading the country, including Zelensky. Whatever comes out of this war, I'm not optimistic about Ukraine's long-term prospects.
I also think we should've had more discussion of the war.
This caught my eye: https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/singapore-speech-hrvp-borrell-shangri-la-dialogue_en
Some Brussels swamp creature swans out to East Asia and says many banal things but also this:
700 billion euros! And there's economic damage in addition to that. 700 billion is just the cost of the bandage for the stab wound (self-inflicted I might add). Europe could've chosen to ignore the US hectoring them into sanctioning Russia, as Hungary did. And what is the cost of the bleeding? What is the cost outside of the EU? Germany and Britain are in a recession, as I recall.
What is the point of it all? Why are we defending borders that were randomly redrawn by the Soviets (in the case of Crimea), why care? Why are we supplying weapons so that Kiev can hold onto predominently Russian-speaking territories whose population mostly doesn't even want to be part of Ukraine? It goes rather against the Kosovo/Palestine/Kurds principle, if principle is an appropriate word to apply in relation to foreign policy.
This whole operation only makes sense if you start with the assumption that Russia is an enemy to be crushed. Then it makes sense to arm the Ukrainians to maximize the number of dead Russians at a relatively low cost. Relatively low, compared to a nuclear war. The War in Afghanistan probably killed more Russians/$ thanks to the sheer amount of poppies produced under our abysmal occupation government.
Anyway, trying to crush Russia has all kinds of bad effects. It pushes Russia towards China and Iran, solidifying an anti-Western axis that spans Eurasia. Our oil sanctions have unsettled OPEC, who might reasonably see a danger in the West trying to crush socially conservative, autocratic states that engage in 'illegal wars' and weaken their energy leverage. Saudi-Iranian rapprochement is accelerating rapidly and is brokered by China: https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/persian-gulf-states-to-form-joint-navy-in-coordination-with-china/
And then there are all the problems Russia can cause for us. Do we want Russian missiles being contributed to China during a Pacific war? Do we want enormous numbers of troops and considerable airpower tied down in Europe, just in case some 'volunteers' move across the border and set up shop in Estonian towns that border Russia? That's a precedent that the Polish Volunteer corps set in Belgorod. Do we want Russian energy and agriculture powering a gigantic mobilized Chinese war machine? Are we really confident in funding a war of attrition against Russia of all countries?
We can't really back down now that Leopards and Bradleys are aflame in Ukraine but it is not clear how any of this is in the national interests of most Western countries. We could've just ignored the whole thing, chose not to have an opinion on Ukraine in 2008, in 2014 in 2018 or 2022. It could be swept under the carpet, like the war in Yemen. Without Nuland, without NATO proposals, without Western training for the Ukrainian military, would there be a long and grinding war? It may well be in the interests of Lockheed Martin and Raytheon to pursue a foreign policy full of exciting conflicts and intensify rivalries, yet it is not so good for people with gas bills, fertilizer needs and taxes to pay.
Are you quite sure Europe wants that?
Time after time, I've seen pro-Russians portray the situation as the US dragging a kicking and screaming Europe into an anti-Russian confrontation it wants, but at least in most European countries, there has been extremely widespread support for anti-Russia sanctions and material support for Ukraine right from the starting months of the war, also lasting (in perhaps a bit more subdued form) through last winter (which pro-Russians widely predicted to be a trump card - "the weak Europeans will surely yield in an INSTANT when they experience a bit of a freeze without Russian gas!") This support has extended even beyond traditionally anti-Russian nation (us, the Baltics, Poland), but of course these the sheer fact that these countries are in the EU would tend to powerfully influence the whole union to that direction.
Because the whole of post-WW2 order is based on countries invading other countries and annexing parts of them - which was the thing that sparked WW2 in the first place - happening ever again. No matter if they are "randomly redrawn" borders or whatever. Russia confirmed the existence of that border in the early 1990s, when the Soviet Union fell, and then blatantly violated that confirmation, and then proceeded to violate it more and more by declaring the annexation of four oblasts.
This can be argued for Crimea (though even in Crimea the secessionist party had been a marginal electoral force before the Russian invasion and annexation) or even for the pre-2022 separatist-occupied areas of Donbass (if only due to the anti-separation population moving out/being pushed out), but on what basis would one argue this for the four currently occupied oblasts in their full form? On the basis of the farcical referendums? In case of Zaporizhzhia the Russians didn't even occupy the full area of the territory where they were purporting to hold the referendum.
Russia was already moving towards China way before 2022. If anything the true problem currently is American belligerence re: Taiwan pushing China towards Russia.
Can you elaborate on this a bit? From my perspective, Taiwan is a real, independent country and the United States has continued to tread carefully when we really should have made that incredibly clear back in the Reagan era when China didn't have the ability to do anything other squawk with embarrassed rage in response.
Why? What would the Americans and even the Taiwanese ever gain from this? Taiwan got very very wealthy from acting as the competent capitalist step-brother to China trying to explore capitalism. All this rhetoric about liberal democratic Taiwan against big bad oppressive China is quite new. Taiwan was also an oppressive military dictatorship for most of its history.
The main advantage of recognizing Taiwan as independent is it would make much harder for the PRoC to make kissy faces and get Taiwan to rejoin the mainland without a fight. That looked vaguely possible for a while, but I think at this point it's off the table.
So no advantage at all as you admit this was a “vague possibility” for a while and nothing more. And Taiwan was supposed to make a mortal enemy of their only geographic neighbour and the source of a great deal of its wealth, for this? That they would possibly voluntarily join PRC?
I am sorry but what you are saying doesn’t make any sense at all.
Taiwan IS a mortal enemy of their only geographic neighbor; nothing is likely to change that except the fall of one government or another. So considering that a consequence is not sensible.
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