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PaperclipPerfector  1yr ago (text post)   30376 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of August 21, 2023

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I didn't watch the debate (mostly because it's in America, I'm not, and I didn't know it was on last night) but reading the accounts of it on our national broadcasting service, I'm laughing and kicking myself for missing this.

The serious bit - I think Mike Pence's only chance is to sell himself as the Defender Of Democracy over the whole Jan6th kerfuffle. The only problem there is (a) the Democrats will still paint him as Second Next To Hitler because of being Trump's VP and his conservative, Christian, views and (b) for the Trump and don't support Trump personally but love how he drives the libs wild types, he's now someone who's a turncoat. He's not really able to portray himself as reining in or holding back Trump, and even if he did follow the rules and resist the pressure, that's not a strong enough image of him to overcome the negatives.

The semi-serious part - DeSantis may be holding back waiting to see who will emerge as the contender against him and then go on the attack, but I still think this was the wrong election for him and waiting for 2028 (if God spares us all) would have been better. I know the argument for going now, while he has momentum going, and that waiting will just dissipate anything he has built up but my opinion is that taking on Trump right now is the wrong thing to do. Better for him to wait until Trump really is out of the running and done with, and let the Culture War cool down a little. If there is a backlash against woke starting, he'd be better positioned next time to take advantage of that by building up more wins as Governor of Florida. In 2028 he will still only be 52, young enough to run. By running now, I think he's going to be the new Mitt Romney: shot his bolt and no chance later.

Abortion, and they're all trying to shuffle around that. Cue Nikki Haley leaving herself wide open for the view, expressed on here as well, that if pro-lifers reeeeellly believed it was murder, they'd put the woman in jail, and so if they don't, that means they don't reeeeellly believe it's taking a human life, it's reeeellly about punishing women for exercising their sexuality:

"Can't we all agree that we're not going to put a woman in jail or give her the death penalty if she gets an abortion?" said Ms Haley, the only woman on the debate stage. "Let's treat this like a respectful issue that it is and humanise the situation and stop demonising that situation."

That's not going to help her; the pro-choice side will still hate her for supporting any kind of limitation on abortion and paint her as a gender traitor etc. and if she looks to be weakening or mushy on the pro-life side, then that loses her support there. I'd kinda like to see Nikki selected as again, it would be a difficult angle of attack for the Democrats to go after a minority-descent woman after all the "vote for the First Female Ever", but they'd go for her on social issues like abortion I suppose.

Now the fun part. Oh Vivek, I had no idea you were so feisty! 😁

Mr Trump had a fierce defender in Mr Ramaswamy, who called him "the best president of the 21st century" and vowed to pardon him if he is convicted of federal crimes.

I almost want to see him be the serious contender, because I do want to see the Democrats grapple with trying to attack the Republican nominee without falling into the pit of accusations of racism or attacking a minority person. While he is rich, cis, het and male, he's not white or Christian, so that removes an angle of attack. I guess they would have to hammer on the "rich entrepreneur who doesn't care about the poor and sick", there's a mini-maybe scandal on his Wikipedia page about boosting and hyping an Alzheimer's drug, cashing in and getting out before the thing tanked (as expected because GlaxoSmithKline had sold it off as a no-hoper):

In 2015, Ramaswamy raised $360 million for the Roivant subsidiary Axovant Sciences in an attempt to market intepirdine as a drug for Alzheimer's disease. In December 2014, Axovant purchased the patent for intepirdine from GlaxoSmithKline (where the drug had failed four previous clinical trials) for $5 million, a small sum in the industry. ...Axovant became a "Wall Street darling" and raised $315 million in its IPO. ...Ramaswamy took a massive payout after selling a portion of his shares in Roivant to Viking Global Investors.

...In September 2017, the company announced that intepirdine had failed in its large clinical trial. The company's value plunged; it lost 75% in one day and continued to decline afterward. Shareholders who lost money included various institutional investors, such as the California State Teachers' Retirement System pension fund. Ramaswamy was insulated from much of Axovant's losses because he held his stake through Roivant. The company abandoned intepirdine. ...Axovant attempted to reinvent itself as a gene therapy company, but dissolved in 2023.

But right now? Trump is still the 800lb gorilla they have to wrassle before they can get the nomination.

I know the argument for going now, while he has momentum going, and that waiting will just dissipate anything he has built up

The other argument for going now is that Biden is just an incredibly weak candidate who will not inspire voter turnout, and the only person who can almost certainly lose to him, and can inspire Dems to turn out, is Trump.

2028 will be a whole different ballgame, and the Dems currently have a shallow bench, but if Trump wins the nom, then Biden likely wins re-election, which means 4 more years for Democrats to attempt to shore up their electoral odds.

Oh, and for a fun bonus, if Trump wins the primary but loses the general in 2024, he is STILL ELIGIBLE TO RUN IN 2028, so if his health permits he very well could CONTINUE to be the 800 pound gorilla.

This seems to be a quandary, but not one that suggests waiting on the sidelines as the wise choice.

I think you also need to run when you can run. And being number 2 poll position the last few years meant it was time to take a run.

Also Trumps not going anywhere anytime soon. We will have a Trump in the primary for the next 20 maybe 40 years. If Trump wins POTUS you’ve got Donald Jr in 2028. Or Ivanka. Potentially even Kushner. I was going to say surprisingly we’ve never had this before. But the last 30 years Bush and Clinton’s stuck around.

If Trump squeaks a victory in 2024 I think Kushner would be an entertaining development. What would leftist Jews do? As far as I know the Jews have never had one of their own in the seat of power in a major country (besides Israel). Zelensky in Ukraine is the only one I can name in a European society.

We will have a Trump in the primary for the next 20 maybe 40 years.

The life expectancy of a 77-year-old male is 9.3 years.

The probability he dies in the next 10 years is 45.6%.

The probability he dies in the 5 years after that is 51%.

How many of those are 300 240 lbs?

I’ve been morbidly curious about this ever since he took office. The best medicine on the planet handled his COVID alright, but I’m not sure how much can be done in the case of heart failures.

He isn't 300 lbs. 250 maybe.

Oh, I guess you’re right. 245 as of his last White House physical, and he claims to have lost some since then.

The Fulton county jail says he’s 215 pounds.

I ran into that part, too, via a WaPo article. But it immediately went into some bizarre speculation about systemic bias underestimates of other defendants' weights, so I wasn't sure how seriously to take it.

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