This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
It is not correct to say the judge is the one valuing Mar-a-Lago at 17-25 million. The judge is just quoting the valuation from the Palm Beach County Assessor:
You can read the full ruling here. The ruling also goes over a bunch of properties Trump owned where he lied about easily verifiable facts to inflate valuations, like claiming his Trump Tower triplex was 30k sq ft when it was actually 11k sq ft.
Seriously, just skip down to page 20 and start reading. For property after property Trump was in possession of third party appraisals of his properties that he inflated to many times their actual value when reporting their worth to other parties.
Seven Springs:
So he inflated the value of his property by almost 10x what an appraiser said it was worth.
40 Wall Street:
Please tell me how it isn't fraud to lie to banks you're seeking a loan from and claim your assets are worth many times what they are actually appraised for.
Assessors for tax are notoriously different compared to actually FMV. Look at house sales and compare to assessment.
The Seven Springs case, at the very least, explicitly provides fair market value. Others generally list multiple appraisals, not just podunk county tax assessments. There’s also the part where defendants called a very cool and very knowledgeable expert witness specifically to claim he’d have assigned a higher market value. And where they argued, unsuccessfully, that SFCs don’t really have to use FMV. Clearly they were aware of the importance.
More options
Context Copy link
If Trump thought the assessors value was low the correct thing to do is hire an appraiser, get an actual value, and use that. As best the lawsuit seems to indicate Trump just made numbers up!
No it isn't. You are rarely obligated under the legal system to make yourself worse off voluntarily. Remaining silent is always an option except in civil cases, where you are still allowed to stay silent to preserve your rights in a criminal procedure.
More options
Context Copy link
Well valuations are kind of made up and differ significantly. It is an art not a science. My point is that using the assessor as if it was gospel unless proved otherwise is silly. The assessed value for local property tax is almost entirely irrelevant to the value of the land. The only real questions are “what was the value” and “was Trump’s value within the realm of possibility.” The assessor’s value (which isn’t based on a FMV standard) is irrelevant to those questions (outside of taxes affecting the value of the property).
It’s misinforming to a conclusion that becomes a lie because Joe midtwit doesn’t know difference between tax appraisal and a market appraisal. And being that they used it for a legal judgement by people who should know better and have a duty to know better I would say is grounds for disbarment.
These are lawyers and they do have professional standards and the things presented by the judge are just straight up lying.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
It’s commonly advised to not fight a low assessment because it reduces your property taxes. No one would assume a corrupt and/or ignorant judge would use that against him decades later.
According to the decision, signed a deed which restricted use of the property for anything other than a social club, including surrendering the right to subdivide the property and build homes thereon. Yet, in its filings, the Trump Organization submitted a valuation that ignored those land use restrictions, and claimed a valuation 2300% higher than the assessed value. And, the only evidence presented to the court to support the higher valuation was a conclusory affidavit from an expert, which, being conclusory, is of essentially no evidentiary value under established Florida law, and indeed established law pretty much everywhere.
So, what basis do you have for saying that only a corrupt or ignorant judge would reach the conclusion he did?
If beach front property assessments in Florida are anything like farmland assessments in the Midwest, such a valuation might not be completely ridiculous. Around me, pretty much all farmland is assessed at $1,500–$2,000 per acre, even though land hasn’t sold for that since the 1990s. One large farm near me recently sold for $20,000 an acre, but the assessed value is only $1,931 an acre. No farmer would (or should) get in trouble for valuing his land at 2023 rates, no matter what the assessor thinks. I’m not saying Trump’s properties are definitely the same, but it doesn’t seem immediately ridiculous to assume they might be.
Ok, but did the Trumps produce evidence that properties in the area often sell for 10x their assessed value? And you are ignoring the reference to the claimed value ignoring the restrictions on development. That is pretty bad, if true.
Regardless, remember the point is not that the judge is correct; it is that the claim that his decision can only be the result of corruption or ignorance does not seem to be consistent with the facts.
Trump shouldnt have to. The state needs overwhelming evidence. Fraud where no bank lost money should lose as a matter of course.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
I’m typing this on my phone, so I’m not going to mess with links.
First, the county assessor lists Mar a Lago’s market value as $37 million. If it’s true that the judge valued it at $17–25 million, there’s already a major discrepancy. It’s worth noting that Trump paid $12 million for it in 1995, equivalent to $24.3 million today. For the property to be only worth $25 million, the judge has to assume that property values haven’t risen faster than inflation, which seems awfully dubious from where I sit. He also has to assume that the county assessor overvalued the property by 1.5–2.2 times its actual worth, which is interesting given his complaint that Trump has been overvaluing his property. Perhaps he felt the best way to compensate for Trump’s overvaluation was to opt for a noticeable undervaluation?
Secondly, some neighboring properties’ asking and sale prices are instructive. 168 King Rd. (4,874 sq. ft., not ocean-front) just sold for $14 million, against an assessed value of $4.1 million (and a market value of $8.4 million; I’m not clear what the difference between the two is). Another nearby property (500 Regents Park Rd—6,488 sq. ft., ocean-front) is listed for sale at $40 million, against an assessed value of $6.4 million ($12 million market value).
Mar-a-Lago’s main building, by contrast, is 37,414 sq. ft. The property also contains five more buildings, two pools, and five tennis courts, to say nothing of the land. That it’s all worth a measly $17–25 million doesn’t pass the smell test.
Wealth inequality has increased vastly more than inflation and things like Palm Beach estates are limited in supply and the people who buy they have vastly more wealth.
More options
Context Copy link
The judgement takes its numbers from the county assessor:
Possibly you're comparing the current valuation to the valuation in the relevant periods?
I also don't think you can reasonably use neighbouring properties prices as a guide to Mar-a-Lago's value when Mar-a-Lago has very different land use restrictions applied to it.
More options
Context Copy link
The issue is not "is the judge's valuation correct?" (In part because the judge did not make a factual finding; that does not happen on a motion for summary judgment) It is whether the judge's finding that the undisputed facts show that the value claimed by Trump was higher than the actual value is so unreasonable that it can only be the product of corruption or stupidity.
And, the problem with your discussion of the amount the Mar A Lago "should" have appreciated, is that, as the court emphasizes, subsequent to Trump's purchase, substantial land use limitations were attached to Mar A Lago. Which obviously is going to reduce the value of the property. Note also that the decision says that from 2011 to 2021, the assessed value of the property ranged between $18 million and $27 million, which is indeed substantially more than inflation (the BLS inflation calculator tells me that $18 million in Jan of 2011 was equivalent to just under $23 million in Dec of 2021)
Edit: Note also that Trump's attorneys were free to submit evidence that the County's assessment was inaccurate. Did they? There is no evidence that they did.
And while 500 Regents Park Rd might be listed at $40 million, Zillow tells me that it sold in March of 2020 for $7.5 million, compared to its assessed value of at the time of $3.2 million. And that is the relevant time period: The time when Trump et al filed documents claiming what Mar A Lago was worth (again, the decision says that the time period in question was 2011-2021).
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
On the Palm Beach property I’m knowledgeable to yes the result is corruption or ignorance or just trying to give the redditors a partisan talking point. There isn’t even plausible deniability here.
Even if Trump can’t subdivide it’s certainly worth more than sfh with 2 ocean front acres which are trading 200 million plus. The family buying that plot would buy Mar for 200 and just have 15 extra acres.
You might not be able to get the full value of 20 acres which is probably over a billion but it’s certainly worth more than the highest sfh in the neighborhood which gives a lower bound of probably 250 million.
Another user said he bought it for $12 million. That was in 1985. Per the West Palm Beach home price index the value in 2021 would be expected to be about $57 million. Yet he claimed it was worth more than $600 million at the time. A judge who infers therefrom that he was lying is not acting unreasonably. Even if he turns out to be mistaken.
So, you think the judge ruled as he did in order to give the redditors a partisan talking point??
More options
Context Copy link
Those homes don't have land use restrictions that they can only be used as social clubs.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
Trump relied on the testimony of the most relevant possible expert, a powerbroker in Palm Beach whose last deal involved Tommy Hilfiger’s property and who represented in one of the largest sales in recent Palm Beach history. He listed the specific features which, in his expert testimony, would lead the property to be sold at north of one billion dollars, namely that is an “exclusive family compound” and “in the most desirable section of Palm Beach”.
You are misinterpreting his statement as being conclusory. Why? The expert's ultimate assertion is not “speculative”, it is based on his experience and assessment of the features of the property. It is not “unsupported by any evidentiary foundation”, he specifies the exact evidentiary foundation.
No, it was the court that said it was conclusory, not me. And, are you sure you are familiar with the law on what constitutes a conclusory expert opinion under Florida law? Because the fact that you consider the identity of the expert relevant to that question suggests that you might not be.
Most importantly, note that the issue now is precisely that: Was the expert's opinion sufficiently nonconclusory to be entitled to weight under Florida law? I would think you would be sufficiently uncertain of the answer thereto to be a little less sure that the decision must be the product of corruption or incompetence.
If any such statement was made in evidence a MSJ is improper because that creates a legitimate question of material fact. The judge is in a tails he loses heads trump wins situation if ever a nonbiased person reviews his order.
If any what statement is made? Do you mean that, if the expert's opinion was supported by evidence, rather than being wholly conclusory? Yes, if so, the court erred in disregarding the opinion. However:
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
True, but an independent appraisal isn't something that's going to be used as the basis to change the assessment. While their jobs are similar, assessors and appraisers don't look at exactly the same things, and an appraisal isn't even something the assessor's office will even know about.
Didn’t the Judge cite an assessor’s valuation?
Yes, because that's what's publicly available. An appraiser's valuation isn't public except for in unusual circumstances (like the property is subject to litigation, as in this case), and even then the values are almost always outdated by that point.
More options
Context Copy link
They cited a tax value. That is not the same thing as an assessed value for market value. It’s a made up number they use for calculating taxes. And using it is an active attempt to deceive.
@coffee_enjoyer To be clear, an assessed value is one used for tax purposes. An appraised value is one used for market purposes, including determining collateral value.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
This seems more egregious, though:
Agreed. The one question is what duty of care did Trump have to the lenders? Could he say “I think land X is worth a billion dollars” and then if he provided all of the correct specs, cash flow, etc. it seems to me buyer beware (ie lender can use their own judgement to decide). If he said C&W said the land was worth 525m when they said 200m then that is fraud.
It seems like Trump may have fraudulent provided a sq foot number. That would fit the bill for fraud.
More options
Context Copy link
I agree those look more egregious. Which is my main point why include Mar-a-Lago at such a silly valuation. Why not hammer the ones where you have a better case.
I read the Mar-a-Lago and quickly see judge is an idiot. So it’s easy to assume they are doing shenanigans elsewhere.
That being said even on that building Trump may have been closer to market value. Appraisers are known for being lagging and backward looking. And the real estate market changed a lot between 2010 and 2012.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
What you're missing are the land use restrictions that make it actually much less valuable on teh market than nearby lots.
I wish I could copy/paste from this part of the court ruling (the version I see is not OCRed), it's like 3 paragraphs and vastly clarifies the situation. Worth checking out if you care about this tweet.
Maybe the land is much less valuable but it would still be worth an order of magnitude more than the assessed value.
An order of magnitude more than the assessed value is already like 70% of the low end of OP's speculated value.
What do you mean by 'much less', and why do you think that?
Because we can look at much smaller properties around it and see how much they are worth. So even if per acre / per sq Ft MAL is worth much less it would still be worth a bunch because the amount of acres and sq Ft is much more than normal for this area.
$25mil is 'a bunch'.
You seem to agree with me that it will be worth less than surrounding properties, but you're still using them as your anchor.
The only question is how much less it is worth.
Absent any additional information about that, I'm fine trusting the county assessor and the judge, until someone shows me more evidence. I at least trust them more than Eric Trump, who is the source of this hot take.
But anyway, that's all sort of besides the point. It sounds like you agree with me that Trump significantly overstated the value of the property, which is what the judge was saying in this section.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
The relevant section, copy/pasted for your convenience:
Is it your contention that Trump is violating the land use restrictions by living at MAL? If he is not, then it seems MAL has at least value to someone to live there. Given its size and location that means MAL is worth a sizeable chunk.
I thought he might have been, but apparently the deal is that employees of the club are allowed to stay on site, so he's able to live there as a Mar-a-Lago employee or something? I dunno.
Edit: Having said that, all I was doing in this particular comment was giving @guesswho the quote he wanted.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
Thanks!
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
I don’t disagree that some of the other valuations look off to me. My point is why the exaggeration on Mar-a-Lago which is the easiest one for the average person to look up and conclude the judge is an idiot. Property taxes in perhaps all locations but certainly many are not marked-to-market or anything close to market. They are often well below market (sometimes above market too often in poorer areas). The goal is that if one house is worth 20 million (market) and another is worth 10 million (market) that the assessed values would have a similar 2x to apply mileage rates too. It just seems silly to me they would even quote that. I’m not sure why the prosecutor would even feed that data to the judge because it’s not a market value and makes them look stupid.
He probably did knowingly exaggerate for his own self-worth ego. The key thing here is the statements on these values was not a key point to underwriting the loans and had no effect on any loan terms. There is no victim here the banks would have done the same deals regardless of what he said on the forms. It’s like if I call Amex to get a credit card and I asks for a $10 million limit. My portfolio lets even call it public markets so exact values is worth $1 billion but I tell them $2 billion. The bank doesn’t care I exaggerated.
I briefly read through the ruling so I might have missed it, but how are you certain the over-valuation of these properties didn't affect the terms or availability of any loan/insurance/financial agreement?
The bank absolutely does care about your debt-to-asset ratio for a multitude of reasons, but more importantly they care if you're a liar.
A $10 million loan to someone with $1-2b in assets is likely a low risk for default. A $10 million loan to someone who lies on their financial statements is a reputational and financial risk.
He wasn’t directly borrowing against these properties. The debt was on other properties that were underwritten. High other assets only come into play if something goes wrong on those properties. So it could matter but if the loan was debatable I would assume the banks would underwrite the quality of his personal guarantee more than just rubber stamping what he submitted.
Right - and his personal guarantee is based on the valuation of his assets, which he overstated.
Find me one case with precedence here where a little exaggeration on this specific form with zero victims was pursued.
It's going to be pretty hard to find cases where there's no egregious harm because they would normally go undetected. And once there is harm, your company is probably insolvent and not worth pursuing by OAG.
If you're pointing out that this only got investigated because it's Trump, I agree. Unfortunately for him, the investigation uncovered a crime.
Actually this is in civil court not criminal which heavily indicates how weak of a case it is. Beside it being very rare for a civil case that isn’t origionating from a victim.
That's not true. The NY attorney general doesn't have the authority to indite Trump on criminal charges.
Similar to the SEC (whose cases are also civil), they refer their investigations to a separate authority who might be interested in pursuing any criminal charges in addition to the civil case.
I believe the OAG has referred this case to the Manhattan DA, though as they're already prosecuting Trump for a separate case, I'm not sure if they'll decide to file criminal charges.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
The bank doesn't care if you commit fraud on loan paperwork for huge amounts of money? Why would you think that is true?
Like yeah they're not going to go after a first time home owner for rounding their income up from $117k to $120k. But when you start talking about hundreds of millions of dollars and your ability to repay it I think actually they do care.
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link