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The latest Trump legal woes comes once again from NY where a judge ordered his business dissolved for fraud. Nobody losts money and it came down to some misstatements. I haven’t read the full case, but the judge on a high profile part of the case is completely off. Not even ballpark off.
He valued Mar-a-Lago at 17-25 million. I texted a broker in the area and he told me 100 million for an ocean acre and 25 million for a non-ocean acres. Mar is between 17-20 acres depending where you look online. Palm Beach has gone up a lot since COVID so maybe divide those numbers by 2 since Trump made his filling. He listed the property at 450-650 million. Without doing a full underwriting (maybe zoning issues where it couldn’t be worth the raw land price) it still appears Mar is worth a lot of money.
If you are going to do lawfare shouldn’t you avoid obvious mistakes? It’s easy to see a headline and write this whole case off as political. It weakens public perception of all other cases if you make mistakes that are this stupid.
If I am remembering this case correctly he did likely violate the law and include some statement that were obviously false but in a category that no one besides Donald Trump gets prosecuted for. So the case of Mar-a-Lago violates a principle of maintaining plausible deniability.
Edit: @AshLael looked up the prosecutors brief and it appears they did not use the tax assessment for valuation purposes. Which would negate my main point. The judge has a history of making stuff up against real estate developers and being later reversed. It’s quite possible this judge hates developers and just does stupid things.
https://twitter.com/goodguyguaranty/status/1707232241925910944?s=46&t=aQ6ajj220jubjU7-o3SuWQ
https://nypost.com/2023/09/27/mar-a-lago-judges-developer-hating-past-is-a-big-win-for-donald-trump/
Which would change the ruling and it’s citations to much more of all developer are bastards story (which is culture war) than my why are you lawfaring stupidly story
I feel a little bad about this, but whenever I see you complaining about Trump-persecution, it biases me in the other direction. As if the fact you felt a need to explain is evidence against his behavior. I know this isn’t really rational; it’s a reflex from years of apologetics.
I’m aware that courts, including NY in particular, have gone after Trump for stupid gotchas. Is this really one of them? The judge is granting a summary judgment in part. He gives detailed reasons why plaintiffs’ arguments were credible, while the defendants have consistently misrepresented their position. Throwing that out on the basis of one sloppy valuation is the definition of an isolated demand for rigor.
It looks like Trump has employed his traditional legal strategy of Throwing Shit at Walls. Dismiss this, dismiss that, usually in direct contradiction to precedent or to rulings earlier in the same case! See the fascinating section “Arguments Defendants Raise Again.” None of this inspires confidence.
If you’re going to do fraud, shouldn’t you avoid obvious mistakes? Mistakes like claiming a 3x overstatement of square footage was “subjective,” or that Mar-a-Lago was totally worth $1.5B, or that the SFCs could include a 15% premium for the “Trump brand” while simultaneously stating that they include no brand value. Easy things to avoid, right?
This isn't even close to fraud. It is just basically random speculation by him and banks. Everything is estimates made by people without even 12% knowledge of what reality is. These cases shouldn't be legal because they are treating art like a science. Its basically punishing a person extra above the bet they wagered just because. "Oh you put $500 on the Bills to beat the Redskins and Jim Kelly lost again on a fluke field goal, well actually we are taking another $2500 from you because reasons."
So claiming his Trump Tower apartment was 3 times bigger than it is was just random speculation?
To me, that is the fraud and not the estimates. The issue is since the judge went all crazy on the valuations I don’t know if the rest of the factual record is accurate and don’t really have the inclination to review the record. I’ll just wait for the appeals and see what happens.
Real estate square footages are so often exaggerated
I’ve noticed that rental units from a professional complex always seem small compared to an identical unit rented by an owner in a condo building.
There are some reasons how sq footage can be counted different. You can measure every room and get a number (excludes the carpentry work) or just measure what it would be as raw space. Commercial has even more leeway on counting space (outside hallways to offices I believe can be counted differently).
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