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naraburns  nihil supernum  7mo ago (text post)   28919 thread views

Israel-Gaza Megathread #1

This is a megathread for any posts on the conflict between (so far, and so far as I know) Hamas and the Israeli government, as well as related geopolitics. Culture War thread rules apply.

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Why doesn’t Israel just blow up the wall on the Eygpt border so all the Gazans can flee there?

Even if it was possible (others have proved that it isn't a good idea), what makes you think that all of them would flee?

They have no desire for Gazans to flee to Egypt. It would not help any of Israel's aims to have them do so.

If Egypt brutally represses them to destroy Hamas it won’t be blamed on Israel, and both the US and Israel will be fine with it.

Or Egypt fails to brutally repress them, either because it's hard or because it inspires homegrown resistance, the government falls to Islamic radicals, and Egypt becomes 10 Gazas. Or the Sinai becomes a lawless hellscape filled with weapons, a problem for both governments. Or Hamas militiaman cool their heels in Sinai for five or ten years then return to cause problems for Israel anywhere else. One doesn't just decide to engage in brutal repression and instantly win.

I agree, it’s very much not in Egypt’s interests to take them, and it would be an extraordinarily tough pill for Sisi to swallow if the US ordered him to, such that the amount of aid required would be so large I doubt it would pass congress.

The regime in Egypt (largely a continuation of pre-2011 military rule) was literally overthrown by the Muslim Brotherhood, of which Hamas is a spin-off of the Palestinian chapter. Sisi would consider that an act of war. It’s hard to say what he’d do, but it wouldn’t be good for relations.

Israel has repeatedly bombed the Rafah border crossing (the only border crossing to Egypt) in the last few days. There is plenty of international citizens in Gaza who can't get out either because apparently the crossing is not functioning from the Palestinian side.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.timesofisrael.com/israel-said-to-bomb-rafah-crossing-to-egypt-after-telling-gazans-to-flee-through-it/amp/

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20231012-egypt-urges-israel-to-halt-airstrikes-on-rafah-border-crossing-with-gaza/

Apart from this being an act of war against Egypt, open up Google maps. It’s 100 miles of desert on the other side of that wall before you get to any real civilization.

I wouldn't be surprised if Israel genuinely soon attempted to do exactly that.

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