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PaperclipPerfector  5mo ago (text post)   26688 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of November 20, 2023

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Prestige Biotech

TIME reported:

Recently, many California residents were disturbed to learn that a small, privately-operated bio lab in the Central Valley town of Reedley was shut down by Fresno County Department of Public Health officials after they found that it had been improperly managing almost 1,000 laboratory mice and samples of infectious diseases including COVID-19, rubella, malaria, dengue, chlamydia, hepatitis, and HIV. The lab was registered to a company called Prestige Biotech that sold a variety of medical testing kits, including for pregnancy and COVID-19, and it was likely storing disease samples for the purpose of developing and validating its testing kits. Government authorities are still investigating the company’s history, but it appears to have previously operated a lab in Fresno under the name Universal MediTech, where city officials flagged it for investigation regarding improperly stored chemicals.

This, if anything, seems to be an understatement, since the initial federal investigation starts with:

On September 6, 2023, the Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party (“Select Committee”) issued its first subpoena as part of its ongoing investigation into theillegal facility that local authorities uncovered in Reedley, California.The subpoena, signed by the Chairman with an on-site visit by the Select Committee’s Chief Investigative Counsel and two investigative staffers, uncovered thousands of pages of documents, hundreds of photographs, and hours of video.This evidence, alongside interviews of local officials and other investigative steps, revealed troubling gaps in federal pathogen safeguards. These gaps allowed a wanted fugitive from Canada, who is a PRC national who had previously stolen millions of dollars of American intellectual property, to operate an illegal facility that contained “thousands of vials of potentially infectious agents” in Reedley, California.

and quickly turns to :

Approximately 1,000 mice were kept in inhumane, overcrowded conditions.When local officials asked a worker who “appeared to be in control” of the mice, she replied that they were transgenic mice that simulate the human immune system that were “genetically engineered to catch and carry the COVID-19 virus.” In subsequent interviews with individuals who were at the warehouse, local officials learned that workers were tasked with caring and cleaning for the mice and, on numerous occasions, the Reedley Biolab operators had held back their pay.One of the workers who tended to the mice told Officer Harper that he and his children had become sick close in time to when he was tending the mice.The worker stated that he was instructed to discard any dead mice that he found into a dumpster...

The CDC did not note an Ebola label on the freezer in its report. When asked about the freezer labeled Ebola in a subsequent email, the CDC official noted that the CDC “would typically look for the vial to be labeled as Ebola,”that they “didn’t recall seeing a fridge labeled as Ebola,”and asked for a photograph of the freezer. A photograph was not available. The Select Committee has received written statements reporting the presence of the label.

The AP has a... more forgiving description, though that's damning with the extent it bends over backwards. Let's all get the obvious jokes out of our systems first. My personal favorite so far is "I didn't even know there was a wet market in Fresno", but if you have a particularly good one (maybe Black Dynamite?), fire away.

There's a bit of an obvious question, here, and it's "what the fuck".

And there is a plausible, charitable explanation. Looking at the current charges that fugitive from Canada is facing, it's quite possible that this lab was genuinely making lab tests, using these viral agents and lab mice to validate each batch, and just took 'move fast, break things' to an extreme level. Even the Ebola-labeled fridge, if it did have ebola samples, could maybe be about various biosensor demands that even pre-COVID were already being floated around; it's also possible that Zhu just got the thing on discount from a normal lab and didn't wipe off the marker. If that was the case, perhaps the strangest thing is here's that the scuzzy Engrish medical stuff marketed by a fraudster with a couple different IDs with different names on them, was actually trying and moderately-'real', even if it also had tremendous unnecessary risk and iffy environmental awareness. The criminal complaint even has a dedicated note for :

Despite media reports that UMI and PBI may have been manufacturing bioweapons, no evidence supporting those reports has been found to date. Any and all pathogens and toxins that have been found during the government’s investigation appear to be related to the manufacture and distribution of various IVD test kits.

... but that answer is a little complicated by rough questions about who, if anyone, has actually been looking. Beyond the CDC's apparent unwillingness or inability to test any of the samples found at the lab, it's not clear where they came from, or what Prestige would have been doing with them. Prestige mostly sold pregnancy tests, drug tests, so on.

And the charitable story has more than a few holes: none of the public documents show much evidence of Prestige BioTech's ability to manufacture the scale or variety of tests that they published, and the congressional investigation suggests that the company may have simply relabeled non-US-manufactured (and possibly non-US-certified) ones. It's illegal to import many of the found infectious agents without a license that Prestige did not have, and so the CDC may have presumed that they were provided by US companies... but it's a little worrying if some rando can order supplies of dengue or malaria without anyone caring. Compared to what happens if you try to order the wrong chemicals from a supply shop, that'd actually be worse.

... but it's not clear what, if any, alternative explanation would make more sense. Assuming for the sake of argument that Zhu is an undercover agent for the Chinese government, they don't exactly need James Bond to get Dengue fever samples. Nor would someone wanting to mix up bioweapons find it particularly useful to save on shipping by doing in-situ development. Perhaps there's something particularly funky about these particular breeds of transgenic mice, and given Zhu's previous modeus operandi of stealing biotech IP that would be in line with other practices, but there's no obvious way to get there from here, and a ton of inexplicable chaff around that. Maybe if the biological samples were meant as literal chaff and contained entirely different materials, in the sense that no sane person would test them for 'normal' corporate espionage?

That's further complicated by the federal investigation's general unwillingness to conduct the sort of testing or investigation necessary to assuage concerns; even were this particular case fully in the 'scuzzy Enrish dropshipper' category, the feds don't seem to have or be interested in getting the information necessary to demonstrate that. The charitable view, I suppose, is that the CDC runs into variations of this problem a lot (!) and doesn't think there's much to be gained from knowing the scale of the issue (!!) rather than simply spooling up the vacuum cleaners. Which... isn't especially good.

It's insane that any GoF research is allowed in the first place. Those jokers aren't even doing it to create new vaccines?

This is the most blackpilling thing about the whole COVID incident.

Modern apocalyptic and post apocalyptic science fiction was wrong. Armageddon will not come because of power hunger of big governments or greed of mega corporations.

Old time pulp fiction was wrong too. Armageddon will not come becaue of brilliant and audacious plans of genius mad scientist, and definitely will not be averted at last minute by slack jawed Action Hero.

Apocalypse will come due to few hundred, thousand at most, rather mediocre people, people with names, faces and adresses out there who are not protected and hiding at all, playing russian roulette with all mankind, openly and brazenly.

For ultimate power? For unlimited wealth? To create paradise on earth? To have revenge on the whole world?

Nope. They do it to publish few articles no one will ever read in prestigious journals to burnish their citation metrics. Nothing personal, just scientific bureaucratic process working as intended.

And mankind as a whole is fine with it.

No big deal.

Nothing to see here.

No hard feelings.

Everything keeps going, everyone is waiting for the next oops.

Only reaction, after three years so far, is ... one country's proposal to stop public funding of this pastime. Better than nothing, but not by very much.

Conclusion: Just stop worrying. Humanity is NGMI, and fully deservedly so.

Disease won’t wipe us out. Even the Black Death only killed, what, 30% of the population? And we have much better medical technology.

And we have much better medical technology.

When the next oops comes, at least half of the population will refuse to follow the expert's orders and use the newly advanced technology (which half will depend whether the new treaments are coded blue or red this time).

This effect will be canceled by the experts' orders being anywhere from useless to counterproductive. (As it was with COVID and the Black Death)

You grossly underestimate the risk of intentional or accidental development of bio-weapons, of which I consider GOF research to be the latter.

We have diseases with properties, which, if combined, would likely be beyond our ability to handle even with concomitant advances in biotech.

Offense outpaces defense very hard here, and the main reason we're not dead is because nobody is trying particularly hard for it to be so. You can GOF an extremely virulent organism to be much more lethal, a lethal organism to be much more virulent, potentially with the ability to lie dormant like HIV for ages till it erupts a few months later after infecting a majority of humanity. Even if it doesn't kill literally everyone, it has the potential to throw a very real wrench in the works, look at what Baby's First Pandemic, Covid, with a CFR of 0.1% before vaccines, managed to cause.

We didn’t have to notice Covid happened, let alone react the way we did, it was a media panic. The Black Death is probably an upper limit as far as plague; myxomatosis in rabbits maxed out at around that threshold IIRC.

Covid certainly was an over-reaction, but trust me doctors would have noticed an OOM or two surge in hospitalizations for respiratory issues regardless of public awareness. A more deadly by an OOM or two disease would cause far more economic damage.

Death usually occurs between days 10 and 12. Highly virulent strains, such as those present in North and South America, have essentially 100% case fatality rates.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myxomatosis

You're relying on the observed lethality of natural epidemics to decide on the risks of engineered ones, which is a very bad idea for something that is presumably being aggressively optimized to kill you. Look at the number of eggs laid by a wild junglefowl versus a breed optimized to churn them out for an illustration of what selective pressures can achieve.

Not just GoF research. After three years of misery caused by people playing God just to publish marginally more interesting papers than their peers, we now have a bunch of people racing to create a digital God, with who-knows-what outcome.

Not just GoF research. After three years of misery caused by people playing God just to publish marginally more interesting papers than their peers, we now have a bunch of people racing to create a digital God, with who-knows-what outcome.

This is not the same thing. Artificial intelligence promises audacious scientific breakthroughs to Mad Scientist, ultimate surveillance and control to Evil Overlord, unprecedented giga-profits to Corrupt Corporate Executive. Everyone who is someone needs and wants it.

Science fiction authors of golden, silver, bronze and trash ages would understand and approve.

But GoF research, that is really about nothing than few more scientific papers for never-to-be-read pile? Any science fiction author of note would laugh at this plot, any magazine editor would reject this premise even as satire.

Well, anyone except Philip.K.Dick.

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