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ZorbaTHut  1yr ago (text post)   35351 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of September 26, 2022

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/r/stupidpol is abuzz with news of both NordStream pipelines being damaged, in what mainstream sources openly speculate to be an attack:

Massive drop in pressure – Nord Stream 2 pipeline apparently partially destroyed

There was an incident on the Russian Baltic Sea pipeline, as confirmed by the Danish shipping authority. The operator Gascade speaks of a sharp drop in pressure in the tube. An accident is considered unlikely. The timing of the accident suggests sabotage.

Stupidpol being stupidpol, blames it all on the west (either the US or UK)... but it feels like the kind of have a point? Russian performance in the war doesn't exactly scream competence, so it would be surprising, if they pulled something like this off, so deep in NATOs turf.

When we were discussing the coming winter, some people were saying "the European gas storage is filled up, it'll be fine", but isn't the gas storage more like a buffer, designed to take advantage of the decreased demand over the summer, to even out the increased demand in winter, working on the assumption that there will still be a constant supply of gas coming in? Does this change the calculus at all?

I think there is an active media psyop when it comes to German-US relations that aims to hide or obscure that there is substantial mistrust between the two. How quickly did the people forget about this https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-security-agency-spied-merkel-other-top-european-officials-through-danish-2021-05-30/

Post-war Germany is allowed to prosper economically and have a semblance of independent foreign relations, but always within limits that the Americans set. When they exceed these limits (as in the case of Nordstream 2 or trying to negotiate a peace in Ukraine through the now forgotten Minsk processes), the US has many open or covert ways to correct the course.

Who knows if the Americans did this pipeline leak? But it certainly benefits them and wouldn’t be that unprecedented.

remember that time the NSA used Danish wiretaps on Germany?

yeah i bet they blew up the pipeline

You're entirely relying on FUD. These two things aren't equivalent, and unless you have a good reason to believe that the US is seriously upset with Germany, why would you assume we'd pull something like this? What's so serious about Nordstream that we'd "need" to risk a huge PR backlash and shut it down violently?

What's so serious about Nordstream

If things get tough for Germany, it's a big temptation for them. Doesn't cost you anything to take it off the table.

that we'd "need" to risk a huge PR backlash and shut it down violently?

What risk? Why would there be any backlash?

It does cost!

That state-actor diplomacy is going to have opinions if evidence gets out that the US is actively blowing up Russian investments. We don't need to give Russia any more reason for saber rattling, and we don't want to give the German domestic politics any reason to give more slack to Russia.

That's aside from the potential gas-price consequences from any reduction in supply. Actions taken by Biden are going to be viewed, in a midterm year, as the exclusive cause if (when) prices go up again.

We don't need to give Russia any more reason for saber rattling

You just gave them the pretext to blow up the North sea pipelines that supply quite a lot of gas to EU,though.

Breaking precedents hath its consequences.

I will maintain that no, we didn't.

Please do prove me wrong if you can find anyone more reliable than he said/she said Twitter.

Please do prove me wrong if you can find anyone more reliable than he said/she said Twitter.

Potus swearing that it's going to be wrecked, not enough?

I assume you mean this quote?

“If Russia invades, that means tanks or troops crossing the border of Ukraine again, then there will be no longer a Nord Stream 2”. When reminded by reporters that Germany controls the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, the President stated: “We will – I promise you – we will be able to do it”.

Alright, that’s stronger than I expected to see. Still not a claim of responsibility or a smoking gun, but I guess it does make it more likely.

More comments

This is silly. His argument is obvious - you did it first, so they can now do it too. You can't dismiss it with a simple "nuh-uh".

Also, there are no reliable people on these matters, because everyone just pushes their interest.

His argument is fine if and only if we actually did bomb the pipelines. I’m expressing my disbelief in that premise.

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