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PaperclipPerfector  2mo ago (text post)   25174 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of February 26, 2024

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Now this is getting interesting

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13124393/Ukraines-spy-chief-says-Alexei-Navalny-died-blood-clot.html

Today, however, Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine's GUR military intelligence service, suggested his death could be down to natural causes.

He told reporters: 'I may disappoint you, but what we know is that he really died from a blood clot. And this is more or less confirmed. This was not taken from the Internet, but, unfortunately, a natural [death].'

That makes no sense. Why would the Ukrainian chief of intelligence exonerate Putin and also put an egg on the face of all of the western allies that pearl clutched so hard? What are we missing?

Timing wise it doesn't make sense for Putin to kill him. He was in prison and didn't have any significant political support on the outside.

So the likely options are:

  • CIA / GRU / another western intelligence service killed him to get support in the west for more aid money. It did happen right around some votes, and Navalny wasn't likely to be of any other use to them.

  • Natural causes. Russian prisons probably aren't great for your health.

There's less egg on the face of western allies then you think. CNN will just ignore this. Reporters will still talk as if it's settled that Putin killed him.

CIA / GRU / another western intelligence service killed him to get support in the west for more aid money. It did happen right around some votes, and Navalny wasn't likely to be of any other use to them.

He was in the equivalent of a supermax prison. How many inmates in ADX Florence have been killed by foreign intelligence services?

He was in the equivalent of a supermax prison.

...in a country with a smaller economy than Italy's (notorious for losing mafia bosses from supermax). Russia can't afford to secure its jails from determined infiltrators.

CIA-proofing is probably not massively expensive when you already run an autocratic regime.

People tried to convince me in another thread that GDP and economy are not predictors of state capacity in specific niches. And Russia values its penitentiary system.

Either way, Harp is located in polar tundra and the only other industry in this small town other than the two prisons is a chromium ore mine and processing plant. There's a single road leading into the town. It's not exactly a place where a random outsider can move to and find a job, like Shane Bauer.

A valid argument but for wrong reasons. It's not about GDP, or being able to afford it. The USSR was poorer by GDP than Russia, but I doubt the CIA would be able to pull off an assassination in a Soviet gulag.

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