domain:forecasting.substack.com
If this were the case, why is he following them around and filming? He’s walking toward them, and they’re backing away, not the other way around. Certainly I can believe that the two girls are not, themselves, “innocent” exactly. But it is very weird to follow two teenage girls around the park with a camera.
Okay, I got my conspiracy theory.
This was all pre-planned by one of those creepy NGOs to be a Central Park Karen situation kicking off Boat Migrant Lives Matters, except it backfired by being YesChadded into orbit.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
18hr ago
TL;DR: The battlefield to defeat SJP is the marketplace of ideas.
We tried. SJP played dirty by sending goons into the marketplace and attacking opponents outside it. Fighting it only on that battlefield is a losing battle.
Also polling was done recently and 6% of those polled had a favorable opinion of Fuentes, 33% had a negative view of him, and presume the rest had no clue who he was: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Bj9_tUbMG1yCnME1rc7ggQF7qt8mmxetIfD7bQL167w/htmlview#gid=0
And, confirming my stereotypes for the median white nationalist, Fuentes has highest favorability amongst young black and hispanic men.
The_Nybbler
If you win the rat race you're still a rat. But you're also still a winner.
18hr ago
Make its own cartoon memes of how bad things really are for the poor migrants and refugees and oppressed BIPOC.
They are, when the right sees them the response is generally "yes chad". Enough so the right makes their own
Tenaz
18hr ago
Yeah, you didn't really read this accurately. It the "we are not really the basis for goodness."
It's also the "best guess." Don't pretend you didn't put that in there lol.
Yes, God is subject to 2+2=4 here in this example. You don't see it? It's possible for God to want something other than 2+2=4 but not be able to change it. That makes Him subject to it. It's an external power He has to work around. "Just how reality is," - That is putting limits on God. There is something outside of your concept of God that is more powerful than Him. Why not worship that thing?
And, yet again, an example of what I'm gesturing towards. Really, if God is everything you believe he is, except that there's some fundamental law of reality he can't change (perhaps simply the law of non-contradiction), you'd worship that law rather than God? That's on you. That's you putting your definition of God above God himself. That's you saying, "if I'm wrong in the slightest about what God is, I will cease to be Christian."
I don't think you actually would, but I'm just saying this to illustrate the absurd overconfidence you have in your theological framework.
The funny thing is, we both agree that God lacks the power to change 2+2=4. It's just that you think that this is because 2+2=4 is fundamentally part of God, and God can't change himself, whereas I think 2+2=4 is part of truth, and God can't change truth.
ThisIsSin
Liberty has an anti-privilege bias
18hr ago
Epstein was not an ethnic group
Sure he was; the political football being played with him currently is partially about to what degree that should matter.
WhiningCoil
Ghost of Quokka's Future
18hr ago
I don't understand why anyone records themselves committing crimes and then uploads them to the internet with some sob story about how they are actually the victim. And yet it just keeps happening. And there are always people willing to take their side, which I suppose shouldn't shock me anymore, but it still does.
I was watching some old Gad Saad interview maybe 10 years ago, and he was talking about the pathos of the 3rd world regarding honor and truth. Which basically amounts to, commit fully to the lie, and never stop doubling down and escalating, no matter how obvious the lie is. His example involved an uncle he was having a debate with over some fact, and who was right about this particular fact. The next day he mentioned to his uncle that he looked it up, and had in fact been correct, and his uncle just calmly claimed that the sides of the debate had actually be reversed. Broke Gad's mind for a minute. He had spend the afternoon arguing for *A when his uncle was vehemently claiming Not A, and then suddenly the next day his uncle is claiming it had been the opposite in the cold light of fact? All to maintain some facade of having been correct?
But that's just how some people work. Just tell a brazen impossible to believe lie, and there exist some subset of people who will throw out everything they know about how the world works (if they knew anything at all) and just default to "Well, it's one person's word against another, I just don't know"
AvocadoPanic
18hr ago
She did become very antivax through Covid, calls it the clot shot, etc.
I didn't get the vaccine either, but don't really subscribe to the larger conspiracy theories surrounding the vaccine.
When I had access to her device I briefly checked AI usage. Nothing that appeared problematic.
Some of the emails and longer chat messages from the scammers sound like AI to me.
jkf
18hr ago
eh, I still don't really buy it -- Scott is just handing Bob an idiot ball here. The correct response to the excuses is "yeah, be that as it may I said I was playing tit-for-tat and that's what I'll keep doing. If you want us to enter a defect-defect spiral that's your call".
AvocadoPanic
18hr ago
They didn't discover anything to my knowledge.
Some occasional cannabis use but nothing that I think would account for this.
self_made_human
amaratvaṃ prāpnuhi, athavā yatamāno mṛtyum āpnuhi
18hr ago
I didn't really play much of Arma 2, and DayZ never really appealed to me. The gameplay seems like an exercise in misery, even watching highlight reels never sold me on the concept.
TheDemonRazgriz
18hr ago
I wouldn't be surprised if they were two chav-adjacent girls doing chav-adjacent things in the park with their friends, and an innocent immigrant found himself caught up in the mix.
If this were the case, why is he following them around and filming? He’s walking toward them, and they’re backing away, not the other way around. Certainly I can believe that the two girls are not, themselves, “innocent” exactly. But it is very weird to follow two teenage girls around the park with a camera.
Although it is very strange that the released video is from the man’s perspective, which is a point in favor of his innocence. Has anyone seen an explanation for this? Did he post it himself? Has he accused them of stealing from him, or anything like that?
Yep.
I'm critical of a good number of officer-involved shootings. I can remember that one that started shooting because an Acorn dropped on a car hood, for example.
But if there's ever a 'good shoot' its taking out someone who was literally in the act of trying to kill someone else.
Also, I train people in self-defense professionally... and knife attacks are the scariest and hardest to defend situations. Which is to say it is not reasonable to expect the officer to intervene and try to subdue the person with the blade, so shooting them really does end up as the best option, if you don't have a full-body stab-proof suit.
RoyGBivensAction
Zensunni Scientologist
18hr ago
I feel like I'm in the Twilight Zone.
I cannot even imagine. I'm very sorry to read all this.
I deal with plenty of delusional people, but drugs play a large role in their lives. It's beyond baffling when it strikes people who are otherwise functional and healthy (presumably the hospital found no organic cause for such behavior and the floaters like a brain tumor or something).
Tree
18hr ago
Oh man, that’s rough.
It’s surprisingly common. One woman(50s) I know thinks she has been in a serious relationship with a scammer for years. A man she’s never met, who always has an accident at the airport, requiring she send money. She has broken off relations with anyone who tried to bring up the fact that her love affair is a scam.
I don’t know what one should do in such cases. Protect yourself and your children first.
Any idea what might have brought this on? Covid, Chatgpt ?
Mantergeistmann
18hr ago
Of course the image is real, it's really there in front of you, really shared by you for me to see, and it really exists. Saying it's not real is like saying political cartoons aren't real: technically true but missing the point. This is depicting something real in a way that's fictional
ThisIsSin
Liberty has an anti-privilege bias
18hr ago
Because both men and women alike are completely obsessed with teenaged girls; men because biological imperative (literally what the male sexual attraction model selects for), women because... also biological imperative (sexual competition and insecurity about the former).
This is why women are, in aggregate, far more accepting of teenaged girls being gang groomed or assaulted by immigrants than [native] men are- that's just what you do to sexual competition.
jkf
18hr ago
Define "new"? I personally tend to drive pretty old things, but my spouse has had a 2015 and 2022 that I've never had to outsource anything on.
TheDemonRazgriz
18hr ago
I remember that video well, it was actually one of the first (well, not the first, but certainly one of the more acute) cases which really shook me from the lefty consensus I had grown up in. I was already drifting away for various other reasons, and had always disliked SJWs (as they were then called), but the SJ race-war reaction to this incident was so ludicrously indefensible, and the left-leaning pushback so conspicuously absent, that it really stuck with me.
For anyone who hasn’t seen the video, the cop absolutely unequivocally saved the other girl’s life; the one who got shot literally had her arm up mid-stab (and going straight for the heart) when he opened fire. It was quite heroic, really.
It was just such an obscenely naked case of “black lives matter, but only when it makes a white person look bad”. It’s not like anyone would be saying that other poor girl’s life mattered if she had been stabbed.
AvocadoPanic
18hr ago
It's lots of white-wellbeing and nowhiteguilt.org and similar adjacent content. Culture war material, westernkind, western bio-spirit, etc.
Seems a bit like an online cult to me.
Hoffmeister25
American Bukelismo Enthusiast
18hr ago
That’s not remotely the same as your straw-man claim.
greyenlightenment
investments: META/FBL, TSLA, TQQQ, TECL, MSFT ...
18hr ago
way too soon to know
Iconochasm
2. Bootstrap the rest of the fucking omnipotence.
18hr ago
I'm and pretty sure that for 99% of Republican primary voters, their opinion on Nick Fuentes is somewhere between "that wierd gay Mexican kid that hates the Jews?" and "literally who?"
WhiningCoil
Ghost of Quokka's Future
18hr ago
I wouldn't be surprised if they were two chav-adjacent girls doing chav-adjacent things in the park with their friends, and an innocent immigrant found himself caught up in the mix.
Somebody is claiming this.
As far as I understand that tape is fake and/or it's not Fuentes in the video. Even the geniuses at Kiwi Farms (who never let a salacious accusation go to waste) don't seem to think it's real.
And just for transparency reasons, my opinion of Fuentes any time he comes up amounts to roughly "Who gives a shit?"
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