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I think the whole idea is frankly pagan. I don’t think it’s very Christian to say that God has to do anything we decide he should, and the idea smacks of magical thinking.

You're in luck, because I did in fact decide to begin that effort-post. I've got a 6 hour journey today on abominably slow British trains, so expect something in a few hours or change.

In my experience the much more frequent cause of single motherhood is not that the father is a net negative but that the mother is and society is so blinded by unwarranted sympathy for her that it refuses to do anything about it nor let the father, leaving the child to suffer while the mother's poor behavior is continually subsidized.

I would be interested to hear if you've found anything more reliable than the old "best indicator is whether a man's mother's father went bald" (which doesn't seem terribly accurate).

My 77yo father is Norwood 0, as am I in my 40s, so my vested interest is minimal.

Exercising via leetcode or codewars to see where you stack up

Listen, I know this is popular. I know leetcode bullshit comes up all the time in interviews. But IMHO, a better proxy for skill is open source contributions. Can you dive into a foreign code base and understand it? Can you code in the style/language already extant? Can you check out a project and have it compile?! I'd suggest using more open source software, and if something bothers you, fix/change it! Be the meme about the engineer who joins a company, fixes one bug that's been bothering him for 10 years, and then quits. Leetcode is a complementary skill, relevant 10-15% of the time at best, in actual day to day coding. Frankly if leetcode is all you can do, or all you enjoy, I wouldn't suggest sticking with it.

Okay are you conducting some sort of social experiment where you gradually push the limits of what is considered acceptable in the Fun Thread before people start objecting en masse? Because if you were, I'd believe it. The topics of these legal cases have escalated dramatically week after week.

This is way more off-putting than anything in the CW thread IMO.

Wait, you have never been struck by the thunderbolt?

We should have a poll. I thought it happened to everyone, although not too frequently.

During COVID I had my hair cut really short, like a buzz cutt even in front, just because. I thought it was cool enough but then looking at pictures of the cool guy buzz cuts it seemed my own buzz cut was considerably higher up the forehead. I proceeded to have a moment where I was sure I was beginning the downturn and my hairline was receding at an accelerated pace. Began growing it out a bit. Now I find I still have a pretty full head of hair, even in front, but I probably just have always had a fairly high hairline. Old photos suggest this is true.

Hair is weird for men. You can lose the beer gut, you can build your arms and legs and abs. But you can't diet or exercise yourself more hair.

The second one: someone charged in my state with sex with two minors under 15 would be held without bond or with a million dollar cash bond. Released OR is insane. And they would be looking at life in prison with no parole. When I read stories like that from other states, it's so alien to my practice that it might as well be fiction.

This second one? Not. Fun.

I'm also gauging interest in an effort-post on the topic, so let me know if this something that you'd like to know more about.

You can say you dislike territoriality as a national interest but it's not without reason. I think you're confusing arbitrary with contingent. Borders could have been different if circumstances had gone differently but they were reasoned and fought for with blood and statecraft for various very real purposes.

They're neither arbitrary in that they were set up for no reason nor arbitrary in that they make no difference. It's like if you insulted some guy and he punched you in the gut, you wouldn't call his actions arbitrary even if the response could have been a wide variety of actions. He had reason enough and it certainly matters to your gut that he decided on punching rather than harsh words.

I've done a relatively exhaustive analysis on male pattern baldness (I have a vested interest). I'm extremely relieved to find out that despite the reflection of the OR lights off dad's head being dazzling, I likely have lower than average odds of going bald.

Relevant factors:

  1. 50% of men lose some hair by 50.
  2. Dad's saving a lot of money on haircuts.
  3. Maternal grandpa has a respectable head of hair past 95. If I'm slightly thinning when I'm crossing my 80s, I can live with that.
  4. Only 1/3rd of my paternal uncles are bald, all of them older than my dad.
  5. I'm teetering dangerously close to 30, without losing anything off the top. That pretty much rules out early onset AO.

I can breathe a little easier, without having to worry so much about turning 30 and finding out that I've lost my hair, alongside my well-founded belief that you immediately develop arthritis and an inability to drink liquor like you used to. The jungles of Norwood seem less daunting, and worst comes to worse, it's time for minoxidil or a trip to Turkey. Going bald might even be good for career progression, just look at Scott!

(I was immensely annoyed by the fact that while stats on the probability of your dad being bald if you're balding are well established at around 80%, the odds of becoming bald with a bald dad are much harder to find. And MBP is annoyingly polygenic to boot.)

No, that is not necessary. I love individual freedom, but if people want to self-segregate, have a trad marriage, wave a flag and sing a song, the state should not intervene. But I don't want individuals forced into collectives, or punished for victimless crimes either, even though it may be good for social cohesion.

I just want the regime to change,

Well, my first instinct is to chastise you for your recklessness, but if I'm being honest this is not much different than how I feel about Europe, so fair enough, especially if you have ties to the place.

Iran has significant brain drain as education levels are high and emigration's unrestricted. I see between 3 and 5 million emigrants for a population of 80 million 2010 and ~90 million today. I'd guestimate emigration up a bit,

No total regime collapse? No neighboring countries swooping in to setup a puppet state? No civil war? No refugee wave?

Iran was able to build many impressive things in-house, so I don't doubt there are many educated people there, but I distinctly remember people telling me the same thing about Syria, to the point where "doctors and engineers" became a meme.

All things being equal, I'd expect some sort of secular military government, where the army puts down the IRGC.

That sounds like the good ending, but I have my doubts. "Khamenei is a religious fanatic who hates us for irrational religious reasons, and so cannot be reasoned with" is a common argument, but I can't help but notice that Putin is secular, Hussein was secular, Gaddafi was secular, Assad was secular, and none of them had better luck being seen as rational people to be reasoned with. So unless it's possible to impose a puppet regime of the US and/or Israel, I don't think a secular military government will be accepted by them any more than the theocratic one is, and so, we'll see a descent into chaos. Hope I'm wrong.

Hard to say much without specific examples. But if this is an AFAB person and she's saying she feels cared for but not romanced, or seems appreciative but also a little disappointed, then possible issues could be

  • The care feels dispassionate, needs more personal attention (when you do nice things, do they match her needs/ do they show you've been listening? do you confidently express delight in things you find attractive in her face or body, mind or mannerisms specifically? Is it clear you're a man in love with a high-quality lady, not just some milquetoast people-pleaser who would do this for anyone?)
  • The care feels low-value because you're so grateful, so there's no challenge or chase involved for her (obviously don't play hard-to-get like a '90s romcom, but if you clearly have various joyful, prosocial pursuits you're invested in in addition to her, it will establish that your time is valuable, and she'll be more appreciative when you choose her over those other options. Don't neglect the great stuff elsewhere in your life, is what I'm saying.)
  • Maybe you're actually doing fine but the long-distance is killing the momentum, so she's poking around at random to try to reignite things
  • Maybe you're doing fine and she's just kind of an unstable person as people said below, or things have just run their course without either of you realizing it

Just released is a new house-design simulator, Architect Life. It actually uses lines like proper CAD software, rather than brown bricks like House Flipper and Minecraft. Design your dream house now! (Or just get QCAD for free.)

He asked me for this:

give me the metrics by which you judge social cohesion, peace and prosperity to be increasing

I don't even know what you accuse me of moving the goalposts from, you're the one who pretended he only said social cohesion.

I resigned myself to the soft bigotry of low expectations, and came to accept the need for some affirmative action of dissenting views. That said, I agree his influence here is rather negative as shitposts beget shitposts.

I finally did my first proper continuous run of 30min (4km).

Admittedly this is the opposite of a humble-brag: it's being excessively excited about a mediocre achievement. But before this I'd only been able to do intervals of 1/2/3 mins before running out of puff, so I'm pleased with it.

I hadn't run at all really for about 10 years beyond catching buses and things, so I had to taper up from 1m:2m run:walk to 2:2 to 3:1 over a few weeks, with my HR spiking to 160/170bpm during the running phases.

The main thing that helped this time was the advice to keep my mouth clamped firmly shut. It meant that I regulated my running to my breathing/HR rather than the alternative. Was still up to 166bpm at the end though.

Going to try alternating between this and my usual intervals for the next few weeks and see what happens.

Very interesting article: Under shadow of Trump warning, Africa pioneers non-dollar payments systems

Africa's push for local currency payments systems, once little more than an aspiration, is finally making concrete gains, bringing the promise of less costly trade to a continent long hobbled by resource-sapping dollar transactions.

The move by Africa to create payments systems that do not rely on the greenback mirrors a push by China to develop financial systems independent of Western institutions. Countries like Russia, which face economic sanctions, are also keen for an alternative to the dollar.

But while that movement has gained a sense of urgency due to shifting trade patterns and geopolitical realignments following President Trump's return to the White House, African advocates for payment alternatives are making their case based on costs.

"Our goal, contrary to what people might think, is not de-dollarisation," said Mike Ogbalu, chief executive of the Pan-African Payments and Settlements System, which allows parties to transact directly in local currencies, bypassing the dollar.

Africa's commercial banks typically rely on overseas counterparts, through so-called correspondent banking relationships, to facilitate settlements of international payments. That includes payments between African neighbours.

That adds significantly to transaction costs that, along with other factors like poor transport infrastructure, have made trade in Africa 50% more expensive than the global average, according to the UN Trade and Development agency.

It is also among the reasons so much of Africa's trade—84%, according to a report by Mauritius-based MCB Group—is with external partners rather than between African nations.

According to data compiled by PAPSS, under the existing system of correspondent banks, a $200 million trade between two parties in different African countries is estimated to cost 10% to 30% of the value of the deal.

The shift to homegrown payments systems could cut the cost of that transaction to just 1%.

Using currencies like the Nigerian naira, Ghanaian cedi or South Africa's rand for intra-Africa trade payments could save the continent $5 billion a year in hard currency, Ogbalu told Reuters.

Launched in January 2022 with just 10 participating commercial banks, PAPSS is today operational in 15 countries including Zambia, Malawi, Kenya and Tunisia, and now has 150 commercial banks in its network.

I don't disagree with the first statement, but it feels like moving the goalposts. About the second one: I don't know if you can call a society consisting of two groups that hate each other a "cohesive" one, even if there's high cohesion within the subgroups.

Can't you muster up some level of genuine sympathy for a single woman who doesn't want to live as a girlboss? Why would she even want to?

Vietnam is just an average, mostly functioning Asian nation free of extremes of any sort. South Korea is a realized cyberpunk hellscape afflicted by every conceivable form of degeneracy and blight brought about by modernity and late-stage capitalism, whereas North Korea somehow managed to the realize the horror of Confucianism and Communism being combined and ruled over by a dynasty. And yet you’re arguing that the long-term outcome of US victory for the Korean Peninsula is preferable to the long-term outcome of US defeat for Indochina.

Taking that one step further - do we need to break down the bonds between people, atomize them as hard as possible, so as to maintain social peace?