sliders1234
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User ID: 685
sliders1234
13d ago
I spent a few minutes trying to come up with a replacement level athlete with name notoriety. Got excited when he hit me.
sliders1234
14d ago
I bet he runs in 2028. Perhaps it’s officially Donny Jr. But the old man is the one giving the stump speeches.
sliders1234
14d ago
I will give you Thomas. Though part of Thomas is he’s great at pissing off the left and it’s not only thru legal reasoning but being a player in the federalist society and his wife being intimately involved in 1/6.
More likely than not at this point though Sotomayor is who she is. I think the left could make a strong case for replacing her on her merits alone and not her age. If you have 3 SC justices I don’t think you can claim she is one of your top 3 liberal legal minds. If you are going to lose a lot of cases it still makes sense to have your best writing you le disagreements.
sliders1234
15d ago
That is obviously the Latino versus black debate. It appears the IQ gaps are relative small but the criminality eventually seems to disappear in Hispanic populations but not black populations.
sliders1234
15d ago
I think this analysis has a fatal flaw in it. Sotomayor is an affirmative action appointment and hence her ability is no greater than a generic democrat. If Sotomayor was essentially Michael Jordan than all the arguments for keeping her on the bench would be in play. But she’s basically Javale McGee and a replacement level justice.
It’s definitely an interesting thought experience that it can be beneficial to keep a justice on the court but I can’t agree with the actionable part of it and basically view Sotomayor as low IQ (relatively) without the talent to be great.
Is it even good to remove Iranian nuclear capabilities? Part of the geopolitics for Iran is if shit ever hits the fan they can get nukes fairly quickly to prevent an attack on the homeland. You change a lot of security arrangements if that is not true.
Russia having nukes is a big reason why the US could enter the Ukraine war and it wouldn’t existential to Russia because they guarantee the war would never come to Moscow.
sliders1234
15d ago
Looks performative for now.
I’ve seen reports Iran gave the US flight paths for prior attacks to make sure everything was shot down.
The funny thing to me is there is some Air Force pilot somewhere whose highlight of his career is shooting down missiles the enemy gave him intel on just begging for someone to fuck up and give him a real mission like engaging some Iranian pilots and bombing a nuclear base.
sliders1234
16d ago
What do you mean by “not well understood”. Do you mean economists do not understand why or the average guy doesn’t understand why.
I think economists would easily cite things like land restrictions, failure to build infrastructure, zone restrictions etc as the cause of high home prices.
Definitely possible. I would say maybe 33% from this hypothesis. And the rest is liberals just take more of these positions and slowly move the foundation into their taste.
People seem to be indicating that NPR was closer to the middle back when she died and left them money. And the change in NPR occurred 10-15 years later.
Probably a good job hunting search for clearly right people to look into these sort of jobs. If an old dude is like 80 and you are mid-career 40 there are likely a lot of opportunities in being the head of the foundation with clear right side traits.
I also want to point out Bezos seems to be going the opposite way with his wife. Old wife spending on leftist causes. I don’t know Lauren Sanchez current politics but they just bought a huge house in Palm Beach. Rich Latin women in Southern Florida screams conservative. Her friends will be. I feel confident predicting the Bezos will be solid GOP donors within about 10 years.
sliders1234
16d ago
The he annexed these places thing has already been violated without nuclear war. I believe Kherson was after annexation plus Ukraine has been attacking annexed land for over a year. So no line their for Russian nuclear options.
sliders1234
16d ago
It’s an idealized thought experiment. But I would say it’s largely true for Buffett, Musks, and a few others. You wouldn’t be taxing them directly. Carnegie is an interesting example. You wouldn’t for the most part be taxing him, but what you would have taxed is what he did with the money. The government would get more money and it would be real but what your taxing is what he did with his money which is buy a lot of libraries, science, and cultural centers in the US. Maybe that is a net gain. But you are not taxing the rich guy.
I do not believe Musks owns a home anymore. He probably does own a private jet or two. But his consumption would be way below his means. Any taxes on him isn’t going to change his jet ownership so no consumption change. You would be taxing something else besides Elon Musks. Not sure what it is.
sliders1234
16d ago
It’s not a laffer curve element. That’s for raising tax revenue alone. It includes other indirect costs like government interest costs.
https://www.thebigquestions.com/2011/04/18/the-man-who-cant-be-taxed/
This thought experiment was popular on econ blogosphere back then. It seems roughly right to me.
Now someone above mentioned they consume capital gains and quit working. The story gets a bit different then since higher cap gains taxes or full consumption would lead to him entering the labor market producing more goods and services for others to consume.
But in general without causing a change in behavior (rich consuming less, getting people to work more) there would be no net gain in government fiscal position.
Elon Musks for example can’t be taxed. If you took $100 billion from him it’s not changing his lifestyle. Just numbers on a bank account. He would still work and he consumes so little compared to his net worth consumption changes would be meaningless.
sliders1234
16d ago
A good econ piece for a good researcher would be to figure out why the costs of construction increased so much between 2019 to 2024. It seems like Texas could atleast print 3k sq ft at 500-600k new back then. With then older 3k sq ft homes going for 400k.
WFH killing construction costs doesn’t vibe right to me. Construction workers and lumberjacks aren’t the people afraid of COVID or the people who ever could do WFH. We have had general inflation probably totaling 20-25% but it still feels harder to build now.
sliders1234
16d ago
The traditional economics is that taxing capital doesn’t raise any net tax revenue.
A short summary is all this stuff goes thru the capital markets. A country with high saved wealth has more money sitting in financial assets. A huge amount of financial assets causes money to bid up the price of financial assets. The reverse of a securities price is its yield. Hence a lot of saved assets ends up leading to things like lower real interest rates (or negative real rates). So cheap mortgages and cheap government borrowing. What the government gains in tax revenue is offset by increases in their interest expense. All sums up to 0 net government revenue.
sliders1234
16d ago
Roughly correct.
We just disagree. Geopolitics is bigger than what the masses shout.
The Jews controlling territory in the Middle East is an eyesore for many Iranians but it’s a small piece to the bigger regional hegemony.
sliders1234
16d ago
I had to look up Ray Kroc because there was something I was guessing that has a good culture war angle not discussed. Foundations and donations over the long term seem to always end up in the left camp.
Ray Kroc my intuition was telling me he would not be a leftist. To no one’s surprise a small business owners political philosophy is described in Wikipedia as
“A lifelong Republican, Kroc believed firmly in self-reliance and staunchly opposed government welfare and the New Deal. Kroc donated $255,000 to Richard Nixon's reelection campaign in 1972”
I guess it was actually his widowed wife’s estate that donated $200 million to NPR, but still seems there is a conservative can create a foundation and 30 years after their death the money ends up supporting everything they were opposed to.
sliders1234
17d ago
Are you referring to lower class whites like Appalachians left behind from their upper class? I guess the peasants of people still get to be what their upper class can you do.
Or are we talking Arabs/Syrians/Palestinians? I guess they would be non-white though by skin white since their societies have never been able to function as a Democracy. And outside of oil money never achieved much.
sliders1234
17d ago
You are partially committing a fallacy where you expect the other side to all agree on an argument instead of having internal competing groups.
That being said the White Nationalist and the CRT/Woke probably roughly agree on who is white. While I agree it can be vague; you definitely can create your pyramids. The wokes usually have an oppression pyramid with black females at the top and someone like Elon Musks at the bottom. You just flip their pyramid. The people you want to allow to immigrate are the oppressors in the oppressor/oppressed pyramid.
This quote came to mind when you asked what is white Nationalism.
A lady asked Dr. Franklin Well Doctor what have we got a republic or a monarchy – A republic replied the Doctor if you can keep it.”
White People - are those who can keep it. Propagate self-governance. Live as free people in a functional complex society
Non-white - are the people who can not self-govern or contribute to its existence.
In the American context which uses an expanding term of whiteness it’s basically anyone who can replicate and reproduce the ideals expressed in the founding of the nation.
sliders1234
17d ago
I’ve obviously read Wikipedia before.
Like I said which you ignored if Israel could off Iran the deal their offer the Saudis they would take it.
Sure every geopolitical game is wrapped in other games. And many Iranians don’t like Jews. But they are not the primary geopolitical aim of Iran. Jews also happen to be one of the main players in geopolitics in the region. It’s Russia/Iran versus Saudis/US/Israel. It doesn’t break down on any hard religious lines.
sliders1234
17d ago
He didn’t say he was going full send in the Air Force. But he did promise more arms than they’ve gotten.
sliders1234
17d ago
It’s possible in the long-term.
4.28 billion Africans in 2100. 1-1.5 billion coming to Europe is possible since it will be wealthier. Europes population is stagnant or declining.
Without cultural change in Europe it would seem quite possible.
sliders1234
17d ago
Without proof. I am going to guess you don’t have intercepted directives from Putin to the negotiators telling them the terms to accept?
Which means you don’t have evidence that any of the negotiations were anything more than a charade to make the Kremlin look better (we asked for peace) before invading. And my side which is basically side the saying you are a wrong thinking it was real has hundreds of thousands of troops ready for invasion at great costs, executed battle plans, Putin speech’s, 2+ years of war saying your are wrong.
sliders1234
17d ago
Nobody is denying that Muslims do not like Jews especially in a region they view as their own.
The Sunnis and Arabs have no problem backing the Jews now that it is beneficial for them to do so. If the Jews wanted to join team Tehran and had useful things to offer team Tehran then team Tehran would not refuse them.
Instead the Jews are aligned with the US and the Saudis. And quite frankly the Jews are always going to be US aligned which makes them permenently opposed to team Tehran.
It doesn’t seem very fair to call WN as “brainwashing” or “propaganda”. A lot of their ideas seem very truthful to me. It’s probably impractical to make the US Sweden today, but a society like that with low crime and a far larger percent of their population being able to function in the modern world and therefore a higher trust society and a larger capability for a welfare state feels truthy to me. It’s not like they are just making stuff which brainwashing or propaganda seems to apply to me.
It’s definitely an honest debate on whether the US should move in a white nationalist direction (limit immigration, promote western civ, meritocracy, expect minorities to live by white standards, etc). And very honest for Europe to turn anti-immigrant so they do not develop similar problems as the USA.
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