BANNED USER: terrible poster who never improves
sliders1234
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User ID: 685
Banned by: @Amadan
sliders1234
1yr ago
I think if they had to make a decision they would side with Griffin.
Something feels off to me with “He’s unqualified for his State/local office because he’s an insurrectionists but he’s qualified to be a Senator because he’s not an insurrectionists”
I think to kick him out for being an insurrectionists he would need to violate a state law of insurrection.
This was my issue with a lot of arguments for disqualification since it doesn’t make sense to me someone can be guilty and innocent at the same time.
Leftist (not saying you are) love to make this argument about the other qualifications but there is a clear distinction.
Whether you are over 35 or under 35 is measurable. It’s either true or false. Same with were you born in the US? (Hypothetically I guess borders could change). These are distinct features.
Insurrection is a word that needs defined and is qualitative in your definition.
The closest we have to say someone being 35 and being debatable is the story of a few Cuban baseball players who don’t know their age. But they do have a mathy age we just don’t know it.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Trump case out on him being an insurrectionists.
https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-719_19m2.pdf
Compared to the Reddit debates and how the SC would prevent this as a non-lawyer I thought the opinion was fairly basic and simple. It seems to me that they just declared it a Feds power in Federal elections and the States don’t get a say. Personally, I did come to a belief that it was self-executing.
I think they avoided really touching on all the novel legal theories both ways going around on Reddit or twitter.
It came down to what I believe was one of my original views that letting States have any say in declaring someone an insurrectionists would be a complete clusterfuck and basically turn into state legislatures electing Presidents. Therefore they declared it a federal power.
I would call this pragmatic versus legally correct in my opinion. They avoided 100 page treatise on whether the President is an office holder.
I predicted something between 7-2 and 9-0. 9-0 seems better for the nation.
sliders1234
1yr ago
It’s not with a Democracy which most capitalist are.
sliders1234
1yr ago
HBD aware could also promote the current policy framework. Reasoning that blacks will never achieve equal representation in a meritocracy they could argue for affirmative action in order to make a more stable society (I personally do support some affirmative action). You can’t have a stable Democracy where 15% of an easily identifiable ethnic group gets .3% of the elites if that. Those people vote too.
Exactly colorblind meritocracy isn’t a stable political equilibrium. I guess I am a progressive in the sense that I do want to see society improve. Americas thirst to improve will always exists. 15% of the American population getting .5% of the seats at Harvard based on a colorblind meritocracy sticks out. All the disparate results will look like something we should improve. The solution back in the ‘90s was blaming black culture. Going back to rich white people lecturing on culture feels like it’s going back and is an example of a wrong policy solution.
The one interesting thing is the wokesters seems to have implemented Affirmative Action for the NBA’s slam dunk contest as the winner the last two years was a white guy with only one NBA star participating and the rest minor leaguers. We’ve gotten a black Harvard President and a white slam dunk winner. But I think it’s better having an old white dude running Harvard and watching Jordan dunk. I don’t think a meritocracy is sustainable without a general understanding of hbd. And I wish Hanania would speak directly on how his color blind meritocracy is going to be sustainable.
The bad black culture meme worked for about 50 years. When that didn’t fix things we got wokism. We aren’t going back to blaming culture and we need a new reason why.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Many people here do want HBD to be talked about more mainstream because it will lead to better policy and outcomes.
They won’t say it under their own name because of the current political situation where if you start saying things are genetic society will ban you from earning an income.
It’s not because they don’t want to deal with it. It’s because people don’t want to starve themselves from Unemployment.
Few industries let you speak truth. Trump mostly gets to. Hedge Fund managers get to or equivalent trader that can print money. Deshaun Watson gets to. Unless you are a really special talent you don’t get to.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Overall likely doing well with but some extremes.
What percent of our African American community is still best represented by TheWire type communities? I could interview question answer that and my guess is 10-25% or a few million to 10 million. These would be the highly violent Baltimore, Kansas City, Detroit, Southside of Chicago plus a bunch of southern cities. Conservatives hate on NYC but based on murder rate it feels to me like this environment has been nearly eliminated from NYC. Did they move? Or is it some story like stop and frisk eliminated the cycle of violence. I don’t think these communities stand up well versus anywhere except true third world with higher violence.
At the other end I have long been of the view American African American culture is the second most influential global culture behind only neoliberal globohomo Disney Americana general cultural influence. At the high end American blacks has more of a cultural voice than just about anyone else.
My conclusion is the lows are quite low, the average is very solid, and the high end has done phenomenal.
Base Maga or what the media claims is base Maga has virtually zero representation in the current system.
I will define the caricature of Maga as a West Virginian living in a trailer park. I don’t think it just classifies to this type but it’s good enough to work with. When the immigrants first moved to West Virginia to work in Coal Mines or Pittsburgh they were poor people but unfiltered and had a mix of smart and stupid people.
My Catholic Church in my parents generation (now the middle of no where) produced a founding member of Silicon Valley and a founding member of the PE industry. Those people are like 80 now. Their dads probably worked in the mills. The high IQ mill kids long since filtered out and now their kids just blend in with the blue tribe and grew up somewhere else. I believe Hannania has commented that West Virginia is low IQ. They probably are because every kid with some ability long since left.
The point I’m getting to is the remaining population in these areas are long since separated from their highest ability co-ethnics. They have no connection to the whites who go to Harvard. They have little political representation. WV actually has very good roads so about all they get into is some Manchin infrastructure grift.
These people have no hope of going to Harvard. An African American has hope for that with lower standards.
The issue with affirmative action is these people superficially look like the white people going to Harvard but are not those people.
What would we be left with if we wanted to do affirmative action fairly because some groups have low HBD but we want representation for them in the elites? We would have to have some points system where everyone pushes for their groups particular oppression or group weakness to get special treatment for everything.
Apple in their ads had one with the “black female women” lecturing Tim Cook on esg or something. Maybe we also need coal miner son from West Virginia getting their own ad lecturing Cook.
I think the Maga people or a percent of it do roughly fit this caricature and if you are going to claim black peoples have realized they can’t get to the elites on merit alone then I think it’s also apparent my caricature has realized they can’t get to Harvard on merit alone except they have to compete in the primary admittance program against billionaire kids.
My personal opinion besides all the rhetoric is we do need to make sure 4-5% of African Americans get into Harvard with a boost for representation in the elites. 14% is too high and often just rich foreigners. And we probably do need to get 2-3% of WV coal miner kids into Harvard (is this 0% now?).
But some how we need to get there with out everyone talking about it because then it’s just status games on the oppression pyramid.
sliders1234
1yr ago
It would be too small of sample size and hopelessly confounded.
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American blacks were tribes that lost wars and without filtering brought to America so I would assume we got those tribes elites and peasants. Versus say perhaps there is a country with really high performing Africans but their filtered from the top 1% of say a country like Nigeria with 200 million plus people. Some arguments have been made that we see this with Indians in America where Indians have a very strong position in big tech but India has overall been a low performing country.
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Conservatives do argue that liberalism has been bad for the black community and led to more single parent families. Civil Rights, sexual Revolution, marriage meaning forever, etc all occurred at roughly the same time. Perhaps Jim Crow disappearing was good but a changing culture on the nuclear family was a negative.
If we lived in a world of parallel universes where you just changed one historically thing we might always see civil rights correlating with the family issues so you could never truly differentiate between whether civil rights are good or bad.
- This also would sort of remind me of masks mandated and many observational studies showing a big effect. But the places that implemented masks mandates often did them after a surge of cases. So a masks mandate would show a correlation with cases falling. Perhaps places that would hypothetical pass civil rights laws already developed anti-discrimination beliefs so the effects of the laws might be meaningless. Or maybe it’s vice versa.
sliders1234
1yr ago
You sort of need to do an extreme version of “1% of land” to make your point. And then say that they killed 30k of them without saying why.
Yes your experiment sounds bad. But it’s not what is happening.
Alternatively what if White S Africans took power back. Due to HBD factors they grew the economy significantly. To the point that a laborer is S Africa could make 5X his wage in S Africa versus the country next door. For all intents and purposes he’s a lower class S African with low status but his standard of living is fairly high.
This is closer to the truth of what Israel is offering Palestinians.
sliders1234
1yr ago
You are skipping key information.
Ackman also made him denounce DEI to get the money. He’s trying to do reform within the party first.
sliders1234
1yr ago
The MMT (which I don’t believe in) people come closer to the truth that debt is fake in America than the old GOP Austrian types always worried about it as a sign of future collapse.
That which matters is the ability of a society to be productive and then matching supply to demand. Debt and taxes drain current demand.
The big area that at one point made debt potential real in America was our dependence on foreign energy and needing faith in the dollar to purchase our energy needs. Since shale this is no longer an issue. America is different as an economy because we are basically self-sufficient and a diversified economy with productive capacity in all areas. We miss a few areas like cheap consumer goods but giving up Chinese goods from Temu and stocking our homes with gadgets isn’t going to collapse the nation.
Even things that seem strategic like rare earth metals we only use foreign suppliers because of our environmental regs. If a dollar crisis hits we could in short time ramp up our own rare earth materials.
The big risks to having a lot of debt is the ability to support the dollar on markets but the US economy has already restructured where dollar value is less of a concern.
We could have internal political disputes. The way you control inflation is by doing things that hurt demand. If future benefits create too much demand causing inflation we would have some political disputes. Do young people get hit with taxes killing their consumer demand or do we cut SS benefits and hurt older peoples demands? I do not know if that day ever comes but it’s not an extinction level event.
The American collapse will come when we are no longer capable of creating high GDP per capita which fundamental comes from endowed natural resources and citizens productivity. Debt doesn’t scare me but the culture wars do scare me on these issues if we forget the culture that generates economic productivity.
Debt is much more real for small countries without diversified industry. You are too small to have economies of scale in all industries. If your primary industry faces a decline then your fiscal capacity matters a lot more in global trade.
I think this is far too strong and we do not know how this plays out. Ackman is definitely not alone. Jamie Dimon also gave a speech where he said “I’m barely a Democrat anymore”.
People are not the biggest fan of being called Nazis and having their brothers lives threatened. It wouldn’t shock me if in a generation Jews and southern redneck culture begins sharing memes.
I am a white man. The chance I ever vote for the Dems regardless of any “policy is actually better for me” is zero. I know how they view me.
sliders1234
1yr ago
The Russian view of Ukranians being ethnic brothers would seem to refute this. It’s a valid reason. It is one rejected by Egypt mainly due to fears Palestinians would destabilize Egypt.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I don’t know. Being quiet helps the chance that voters stay home. Being loud and angering leftist would make them more aggressive and twist the knife into the Democrats between Hamas and Israel supporters.
A Jewish realignment to the GOP seems in the cards now as the risks from the left to them seem a lot more more serious than a handful of actual Nazis. Trump coming out loud would force this a lot more.
sliders1234
1yr ago
After seeing what’s happening at protest I am 100% in favor of Muslim ban. It just seems more and more our society and their society are not compatible outside of some elite worldly people interacting.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Genetic modification seems so obviously to be progress but I am starting to expect it to face a great deal of political backlash.
Let’s say we are in a Cold War with with China. In order to defeat the US they begin with their ideal Chinese man but then change the genetic code so that they create Shaquille O’Neill physical traits plus 250 IQ. These guys crush the US. But then the super humans end ruling China too. And they are so modified they are more different from Han Chinese than European Americans.
You don’t really need War for this timeline as simply doing it in peace time would end up creating humanoids completely different to current humans and basically a mass extinction even or at a minimum making human existence void of any meaning a second tier species watched over by their better.
Same thing of course applies to AI.
sliders1234
1yr ago
The VC bubble of 2021 or VC in general seems to be the employee has more leverage situation. The key idea is you just need more money (from an old capital rich society) chasing too few good ideas/opportunities.
sliders1234
1yr ago
This seems like a general complaint with Dems/Socialist/Commies ability to build coalitions. When you are running let’s call it a spoils systems (not a perfect fit here) you run into internal bickering over who gets the better spoils. In this case it’s closer to who is the oppressor/oppressed and the top oppressed in the social pyramid.
I tend to think Trump has this election won just because of how close the last election was an on the margins Israel/Hamas and inflation memories should swap some votes. The counter is the lawfare angle but the left has claimed Trump is a bad man for almost a decade now so getting some NY courts to declare him a bad man doesn’t to me feel like it moves the needle.
sliders1234
1yr ago
It’s also interesting all sports leagues have unrestricted free agent and roughly the median player age. And restricts the pay of younger players.
Basically bribing the 51% oldest person with UFA status to get the CBA approved.
sliders1234
1yr ago
To me I think the solution is let them pick whether they want to be editors or infrastructure.
Under the first amendment you can sue for libel but social media is protected from that. You can either say edit (like Reddit on anything trans) or you can’t edit and you are protected like your the mailman.
It does get more difficult since preventing trolling behavior etc is necessary.
And then you probably need a scale/size test. Places like the motte, the moderators of a sub, someone’s personal blog (marginal Revolution) gets protection. Reddit itself couldn’t do content moderation. The moderators could. And if I liked the subject of a sub but not the moderation I could create TheMotte2, or Chicago2 etc.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Does a thought requiring a lot of education or expertise mean that the thought is therefore false?
sliders1234
1yr ago
My claims are inline with the economics profession. Bob Elliot had this exact debate on twitter a few months ago and no one though the M’s were predictive.
Also if you look at them we should be having a large amount of deflation right now. Which is obviously false.
And obviously we should have had hyperinflation at some point in the past.
Honestly reading thru comments it sort of feels to me that the 14th was never a valid law.
It reads to me like it’s self executing. But self-executing doesn’t work for anything we view as a valid law.
If a poll worker saw a Trump ballot and it’s self executing I don’t have a valid argument for why they can’t just throw the ballots out.
But a different poll worker would view those as valid votes. Both can’t be true at the same time.
With everyone and no one having authority it see like an unlaw to me.
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