BANNED USER: terrible poster who never improves
sliders1234
No bio...
User ID: 685
Banned by: @Amadan
sliders1234
1yr ago
Yes people will be outraged. It’s a motte and bailey. I just think it will be far more muted. You can go on Reddit when you feel like it and post something like Trump isn’t that bad in a bash Trump thread and get downvoted.
I just think it will be 4-5x smaller this time around compared to 2020.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I am not expecting the same level of whining we saw in 2020. One reason is we don’t have COVID so fewer bored leftist. The second reason is it’s tough to cry wolf for the tenth time and still get people outraged.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Extremely moderate?
He’s 10x illegal immigrations.
He’s executive ordered a welfare state for excessive college debt.
Caused the greatest inflation from excessive spending since Jimmy Carter.
Invited naked Trans people to the White House lawn.
I mean rhetorically I can say things like what did Trump do wrong he’s been extremely moderate. He’s mostly just done GOP type things like cut taxes and appoint Pro-Life judges.
I’ve got no clue on what you mean by fact-free conspiracies. Most of those have ended up being true. They went a little too far anti-vax.
sliders1234
1yr ago
My guess is banking regulations would prevent loaning billions to an anonymous person. You could do it outside the US but even the the long arm of American financial regulations goes to a lot of places.
Like maybe Russia would lend to an anonymous US person backed by bitcoin. But then you also become public enemy to the deep state.
I don’t think Masculine Mongoose fully works. If I’m understanding it correct Masculine Mongoose and Bruce Kent really are different people.
This would fail with Hal because the naming of Satoshi seems to have come from a neighbor of Hal. Which implies he was involved before Satoshi was even created and in fact named Satoshi. Which gets to a point where it sounds like a small group had someone created the final code, someone ran the code and do first mining, and then worked together to create a mythological founder most likely so no one would take the heat if used for criminal purposes or so no one person would be the creator of the money.
I feel like this train of thought only moves Hal from sole creator to a co-creator. I think it’s tough to deny he had some role in creating the Satoshi character. The real code creator would have had to been talking to Hal, had Hal review the code and say this is it, then together work on creating the founding story.
Hal Finney as Satoshi. Interesting twitter thread and Marginal Revolution link.
https://twitter.com/adamscochran/status/1761111031928033749?s=46&t=aQ6ajj220jubjU7-o3SuWQ
I guess on an Occam’s Razor type analysis I have always thought Hal Finney was the creator. Key reasons:
- He was involved in early bitcoin transactions and the community
- He has the requisite education and background to create Bitcoin. CalTech just feels right.
- The ALS explains why he disappeared.
- A neighbor a few blocks away had the Satoshi name
The Occam’s Razor bit is it seems tough to believe there is some other guy out there who fits all these characteristics but chose to disappear and is now sitting on wealth that likely makes him the richest man in the world or close to it. Even true nerds at some point get bored and want the yacht and yacht girls.
This community specifically always had a few connections to the bitcoin community with SBF from the rationalist but less known George Mason and their bloggers were some of the first promoters of bitcoin outside of the small developer group. Hal Finney was a blogger with George Mason Economist Robin Hanson on Overcoming Bias. The SlateStar community seems to have had two feeding grounds either from fans of the George Mason blogging mafia or the rationalist community.
Here is a Hal Finney blogpost:
https://www.overcomingbias.com/p/overcoming-disahtml
Personally I knew about bitcoin from the George Mason guys back when you could mine coins for sub-pennies. I always liked the crypto punk guys who started bitcoin but dislike what it became as a gambling asset. Out of laziness I never mined it but I’m fairly certain I would have sold it for a nice profit at $50-100 if I had.
The one use case for crypto has always been the Argentina problem. My trad neoliberalism led me to want to fix Argentina with a little Milton Friedman got in the way of me being an early adopter and billionaire. Missed my shot like many others.
I am not sure I see a broader culture war angle but within Bitcoin there seems to be a dislike of Hal as Satoshi by the maxi community but I do not know most of that story. It’s also somewhat interesting of Bitcoin being Cal Tech built but most of the big promoters were East Coast Ivy/Finance.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Not sure why it’s not working for me.
Anyway I had to look up Yishan Wong on Wikipedia and this paragraph I find hilarious
“In 2012, when asked about various controversial Reddit communities, Wong said that the site should offer a platform for objectionable content: "We will not ban legal content even if we find it odious or if we personally condemn it."[10] In 2013, he hired Ellen Pao as the Vice President of Business Development and Strategic Partnerships and later recommended her as CEO.[11]”
Maybe Ellen Pao wasn’t quit the censorship type back then but the paragraph reads to me “We strongly support our Jewish community in X,Y,Z country we have therefore appointed our Secretary of State to be Adolf Hitler.” Either he truly believed what he said and just made an awful hirer or cultures of all involved in Reddit changed over time.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I can’t see the thread so I am guessing it is now deleted/blocked but would be interesting to hear the story.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Ok so you know there was zero chance the Dems are every giving him a high ranking position?
sliders1234
1yr ago
What did the Dems have to offer him? Not prosecute him?
I don’t think that has any value to Trump. It’s why voters vote for him because he legitimately won’t back down. Now I think Trump mostly just cares about Trump and wants the crown for his own ego.
sliders1234
1yr ago
The one contra to support his thesis is it explains Elon Musks. Being a man who can see where techs could go has immense value as most people can’t do that. That we in fact have a bunch of techs that could flourish if only we had the manager who knew how to put all the pieces together. Also implies the average VC kind of sucks and really just trade off what’s worked in the past and building the next SAAS model or app.
sliders1234
1yr ago
The first assumption you could make is that Hollywood writers are just stupid. But that doesn’t feel right especially with HBO since writers do often get intricate stories right and research all sorts of mythology and historical facts to build characters and plots.
I think this leads you to a conclusion that Hollywood views corporations and business in general as low status. Therefore, learning how a business would think can’t be done because it would be beneath them to study how business would think. Thus business thinking can only be a caricature of dumb evil villains doing silly sort cuts to get things done.
sliders1234
1yr ago
This is a motte and bailey. American is way above other areas.
sliders1234
1yr ago
This is the whole SAT aren’t predictive of college performance. It’s not predictive once you have already filtered for SAT skills plus other categories.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I think what he may be bringing up is very often the debate is almost entirely on false terms.
America does for instance have too much gun violence. The debate is almost always over limiting white people from buying AR-15 which numerically are a very small part of the problem and nearly no risks to the activist class in red or blue tribe.
Where gun violence is an issue it’s mostly harms blue tribe people or politically tribeless people.
Where the debate on pro-gun/anti-gun happens is in area that is a trivial problem. Hence it seems like just tribal fights for status.
sliders1234
1yr ago
US is already spending high levels on social spending.
https://twitter.com/data_david1/status/1759013986023190724?s=46&t=aQ6ajj220jubjU7-o3SuWQ
sliders1234
1yr ago
The American black living situation was plausible some time before the 1960’s. It actually showed up in things they are good at today like athleticism.
Today the living situation isn’t bad by any historical standard. It’s not worse than any Jewish diaspora where everyone hated them. It’s not worse than post WW2 Japan/Germany. For general Europeans things like the plague have been cited as a good thing (sounds stressful) because it increased demand for labor and led to human capital formation in the peasant class.
Environmental factors obviously do matter. It seems apparent that communism really does harm a society. But they don’t seem to be the cause for achievement gaps.
A lot of the solutions to environmental factors seem to make the situation worse especially modern liberalism. Stop and frisks is blowing up on Twitter but it does seem like that correlated very well with lowering NYC black homicide rate. And I am personally very partial to Christianity having overall good effects on the African American community versus modern liberalisms sexual values. Modern liberalism is probably fine for the high IQ San Franciscan but the lower class I believe does better with stricter social rules.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I think he’s putting out a lot of good information and content at what seems like a rapid click to me.
But in finding his overall voice he seems incoherent to me.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I don’t care about views. That’s too easy to game.
I’m fine with letting in anyone who can score a 1300 on the SAT or equivalent test.
But there is no political coalition that would agree to IQ testing for immigrants. The left gave up on that in education.
sliders1234
1yr ago
A persons income correlates more with average IQ in their country than their personal IQ. This implies that lowering a countries average IQ will not function by having the smart people pull the low IQ people us but will have the high IQ people pulled down.
Mostly due to political instability and institution quality. America could probably fit a billion people easily. If we added 700 million people from low IQ countries it would lead to bad political outcomes. The existing American people would become less productive and poorer.
Since when does leaping ability not matter in basketball? Which is definitely a think hbd types would point to as a black edge.
From 1984-2022 only one white person won the nba slam dunk contest. 2023/2024 a white person won named Matt McClung won but the competition is weird and filled with g-league players and only one NBA star participated. Honestly looks like white affirmative action.
Obviously other abilities matter in basketball too, but a big one is my launch point for my shot is higher than the defenders ability to block that shot which is heavily aided by jumping ability.
I just have a huge urge to use a cliche but “tell me you’ve never been dunked on without telling me you’ve never been dunked on”.
sliders1234
1yr ago
They won’t though.
Besides if they started pulling out adoption studies then progressives themselves are saying they believe in race realism and the GOP is believing in race realism but using a polite euphemism for it.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I am confused how banning abortion won’t boost fertility. People are still going to have unprotected sex. Which means pregnancy. Which leads to having a kid. The guy gets hit with obligations. Now they get sort of married. Love their kids and probably make more at a younger age.
Behaviors often come before beliefs.
sliders1234
1yr ago
https://ifstudies.org/blog/americas-growing-religious-secular-fertility-divide
I haven’t seen it by pro-life/pro-choice but religious attendance is likely a good proxy for pro-life.
Don’t really want to redebate these issues. Mostly just wanted a little rebuttal to “Biden was moderate” which both sides claim of their guy.
Fwiw though I don’t M’s do a very good job predicting inflation. Part of this is IOER and other plumbing by the Fed that sterilizes a lot of the production of the M’s created by the Fed.
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