BANNED USER: terrible poster who never improves
sliders1234
No bio...
User ID: 685
Banned by: @Amadan
sliders1234
1yr ago
All those bubbles generate substantial tax revenue for the government. Those people buying shitcoins generally go bankrupt. And it can be quite hard to ever take advantage of prior capital losses as tax write offs. In a pure Ponzi scheme like say bitcoin you have smart traders trading the bubble and generate a lot of gains and a ton of idiots generate losses. All those gains the government collects taxes on while the losers often enough never get to monetize those losses. Even if it’s not smart traders making money but random some take profit and random others buy tops that still generates on net a bunch of tax revenue.
The punishment for bad investment is losing your investment. All those Gme bros lost all their money. And some quant trading firms probably scalped a ton of profits in the vol.
This is a theory of international relations where America is bidding against themselves in an auction. The rest of the world largely does not just let illegal immigration happen. But they largely do like free trade. A few countries might say hypocrisy or something but if we just change the rules and say countries don’t need to take refugees then everyone will agree with us. America is constantly hypocritical in international relations.
If we banned illegal immigrants but pushed free trade everyone is just going to follow along.
I think a better theory is that most elites just don’t recognize hbd. They don’t realize many of these immigrants won’t assimilate. They think they will be like the Italians and Irish who just became white Americans. They support immigration because they think it’s a huge utility gain for both sides to have more people following western norms. You average Syrian refugees kids will become Frenchmen who pray at Mosques and your average subsaharan African will have kids who become Harvard educated Doctors is how they think it will play out.
Personal opinion I would say taxing unrealized gains is illegal according to the letter of the law.
But it is legal to tax earnings at a different organization level. I shouldn’t have to pay taxes because I own Apple stock and they have earnings but Apple can be taxed on their earnings. The difficulty is figuring out the regime of tax shelters and taxing those things correctly. Which is admittedly hard but I think doable.
Taxing unrealized gains from an economic perspective has a lot of issues. If markets had clear forecasts of future income streams and could then apply proper discount rates then taxing unrealized gains could maybe work. But markets aren’t anywhere close to that efficient.
One example I’d give is I had a friend who was a former employee of a start up. It got acquired by a SPAC. She had a paper networth of $3 million and change (at the spac $10 price). By the time she had the ability to sell she had like $60k. Her wealth tax would have been like 500k and she would have negative gain on that whole thing of 440k.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Thinking about this the argument doesn’t make sense.
The GOP had a deep bench because they suck? That sounds like your argument. So random high achieving people think they can win in the GOP. The Democrats have bad candidates because no one proper thinks they can win office with them so the good/smart people don’t run and we get Fettermans?
sliders1234
1yr ago
The problem with twitter is posting anonymously. I could use an alt but for the most part there are too many spammy anonymous posts. And a lot of things here are close enough to the Overton window or past it that there tough to discuss in your real name if your not a trust fund kid.
sliders1234
1yr ago
The left doesn’t even have a bench at all. We can play the game where you criticize every gop candidates flaws but the Dems bench is Newsome? Who got recalled as governor? Kamela Harris who polls awful.
I do care about credentials for politicians. Desantis as much as people will hate on him is very solidly credentialed. He went to the right schools. I kind of do believe POTUS should have went to an Ivy. The Dems despite dominating those institutions can’t seem to find Ivy candidates.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Desantis. Haley. Dems nominated Biden because they have no one. GOP nominates Trump because there’s a big bunch who really like him
sliders1234
1yr ago
They probably are better. Because every thought they have gets challenged.
If I’m thinking correctly joining the Federalist Society is one of the smartest things a person can do. Want to be in a Dem administration? Not happening. Want to be a Supreme Court Justice from the federalist society? Can happen, and despite that I do find the conservative justices as more intellectual. If your brilliant and on the left they are just going to nominate the right skin color/background over you.
sliders1234
1yr ago
The small bench thing may be true. But then why does the GOP have a deep bench of Presidential candidates?
GOP doesn’t lack big fundraising guys. They have Ken Griffen/Elon Musks who are as high end as you can get.
This was dealt with before where the GOP has a plan to deal with not having foot soldiers to run a Presidency.
Someone here posted plan 2025. I applied to that. I got no problem being a good foot soldier in Washington because I think it’s a cause worth doing.
sliders1234
1yr ago
A few thoughts.
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How much of this is paradox of choice? Conservatives being more religious, and successful religions today having a few thousand years to (even for an atheist) evolve to fit well with human psychology. Versus modern liberalism kind of being a be whatever you want to be? Even if I weren’t opposed to pronouns etc I feel like if I grew up in a left area and having to choose which one I was would just put a lot of fear in me I’m choosing wrong. Versus growing up in a traditional area where being a straight white male as my only choice avoids any am I making a mistake issues.
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I’m not sure why very liberal is better than liberal. Doesn’t fit my expectations. The only thing I could see would be liberal would pick up a lot of general corporate type liberal while very liberal people atleast have an ideology they teach their kids. (Paradox of choice again.
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I thought there was something where liberals actually get divorced less than conservatives because they marry later or perhaps that’s just your upper class highly educated liberal. I would have thought for that reason that parental environment and good parenting wasn’t the issue.
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Would like to see some racial background combined with ideology. I think most on the right associate the rise in mental health issues with the woke mind virus. So I was trying to figure out how blacks fit in where I think the vast majority of their community doesn’t have that virus. And I guess Republican/Democrat isn’t necessarily the same as liberal/conservative.
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Maybe the liberal having more issues is because they still have a lot of normie vibes but also often are in areas with very liberal people. Being in a declared camp is a lot better than being in no man’s land.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Old = worked for 2k years as civilization exploded.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I no longer believe that. Within reason free speech is fine. If it threatens everything else then I don’t.
I’ve said before and maybe got a ban for it but I had no problem with Chile killing all the communists. And that made them the richest country south of us. I’m fine with saying free speech is good within our culture. I’m fine with free speech for people who don’t threaten the state. I got no love of free speech that Can conquor me.
Im a little drunk on thanksgiving. Can someone tell me the pope having lunch with transgenders is false.
https://twitter.com/richardhanania/status/1727444933207056730?s=46&t=aQ6ajj220jubjU7-o3SuWQ
This was low effort. I think a 7-day ban is too much. But this is still something where as a Catholic you would be like what I’m seeing has to be wrong. I will eat it. This isn’t an unworthy culture war post if it fact checks which from Hannania I assumed he did.
sliders1234
1yr ago
No interest in accepting Gazan refugees into the west. The Arab world can take them. They don’t fit the values of the western world. And yes I see the issue that the Arabs don’t want them either. But they are there people. Nobody wants them until they give up death cult.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Nah man. Jews are Americans and semi-western. Geopolitical allies. As much as I hate Jews for being the leaders of anti-white bigotry at the end of the day I still have their back. The international arena does matter. An attack on their people is an attack on me. They are part of the civilized world and I will defend them from barbarism.
In an ideal world we would deport the food cart guy. He clearly doesn’t share our values.
My issue with Jews are basically mistake theory. My issue with Isis and Hamas and those organizations is conflict theory.
sliders1234
1yr ago
My SAT scores check out for that. He’s supposedly a 1400 though potentially a little harder when he took it. His IQ testing points to average Ivy grad level which a lot of people here would fit that profile.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I don’t think that’s a big gap. And many geniuses have also had very weird beliefs. So the typical Harvard grad can regurgitate a bunch of things smart people say and then make connections between different thoughts. Seems like OpenAI has accomplished that.
What’s a genius? It seems a bit autistic that they can ignore what they’ve learned and try new things. Some are legit insights and some completely stupid.
That sounds like an AI hallucination.
So then true innovation would just be a bunch of processing power testing whether the hallucination had some missed insight.
I’ve seen too many geniuses also do stupid stuff. Like Bill Gates I believe many here have said he was the top of the top. But he’s also done some dumb stuff and many things where I think I had better ideas.
I don’t think Musks is smarter than me at all. But he benefited from right place right time to gain some skills and maybe some different personality traits.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Yes. But I word it differently. Russia acts like 17th century imperialist (or a whole timeline when people were afraid of Mongols and needed broad borders); Hamas acts like Bronze Age raiders; then you have the semi-normie rich neolib crowd that’s atleast modern; then there is this wtf is going on in the AI labs. I feel like on one timeline I’m seeing every civilization scale at the same time. Probably throw in some trads too. It’s like playing Civilization in the Bronze Age, the age of conquest, probably some renaissance, some modern, a little Cold War Taiwan shit and whatever comes after happening all at once. Does any of the rest of it even matter besides what happens at some 1000 person lab in Silicon Valley.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I don’t think so. If the AI is taught to maximize some stupid constraint then kills the creator it might lack the desire to do more.
Though I somewhat agree with you I do think there are paths where the AI might just die after killing its creator.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I don’t know if they were out of their leagues. And I don’t think Toner was even wrong. But our entire system is made to push things forward and one side had better cards. AI Safety died to the system.
If I were an AI researcher with 8-9 figure pay package on the line I probably would have favored the Sam/Msft deal even if I had very serious safety concerns. It too hard to turn off the human drive to move forward and achieve.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I’ll be honest I have come down on the Toner being correct and Altman deserved to be fired side of the coin. I do think going slow with AI is in humanities best interest though I don’t know how to do it. All of humans evolutionary competitive pressures force us forward.
This feels legitimately like a tech where we aren’t sure on how it will end up. I prefer having safety people in charge (even though I think usually their probably my political enemies). I believe Oppenheimer had a fear nukes could ignite the atmosphere. But he thought it was a low probability. I agree with the people who think the AI kills us all is a plausible scenerio. I don’t know how to put odds on that.
The other thing is Hansons work. I don’t know why we haven’t met aliens. It appears to me a great filter exists and AI feels like it could be that.
It’s not going to be a Hollywood movie where somehow the human spirit wins at the end of the day. If the AI is off it will just kill us all.
If you think it might be a great filter I don’t think delaying it a 100 years is a big deal or even a thousand years. It’s a minuscule amount of time in the galaxy.
Now we have capitalism doing its thing which is usually a good thing for pushing techs forward, but it feels different if you think it could be existential. If my choice is between going slow and watching China do it then I guess a prefer Microsoft’s MBA’s.
I also predicted Sam would be back atleast the first time. The now second coming back I’m a bit surprised on.
sliders1234
1yr ago
His children can run with him the power behind the scenes.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Agree and disagree. I don’t think the right needed huge turnout for Desantis to win. Enough median voters would be turned off by Biden and be fine with Desantis as more of an institutionalist GOP who also bashes a bunch of the left but I don’t think the average voter super cares about trans rights and many are fine with just interpreting them as mentally ill males. But those voters would turn up to vote against Trump.
Trump campaign big turning point was all the charges; before that Desantis was making ground. The charges did two things - 1. Got trump in the news cycle after he was in blackout and 2. Trigger a protect your flank movement with conservatives like myself who rightfully know you can’t abandon a third of your vote.
In the end the left locked in the nomination for Trump who for many seems more unstable than Desantis.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I also forgot another reason - Musks owns twitter. It may not be the dominant information provider to most Americans but it is the dominant information provider for the top 10-20% which is key to getting outrage movements going.
Since Musks took over twitter right-wing boycotts began to succeed. Twitter in terms of power is well-worth the 40 billion paid for it.
I share your thoughts. I don’t have a huge problem with illegal immigration in the US for the most part. Hispanics tend to assimilate in the ways they are ok. Generally they haven’t matched IQ testing or educational attainment but second and third generation have reduced criminality to the US white level. But the immigrants Europe gets I am not sure that will be achieved.
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