BANNED USER: terrible poster who never improves
sliders1234
No bio...
User ID: 685
Banned by: @Amadan
sliders1234
1yr ago
They may not accomplish the mission but Hannania has written a lot about how changes in the law (civil rights etc) have given the left a lot of lawsuit power on things like disparate impact. I believe Musks is being sued on something like that. If they can change the laws (a tough asks) then they can change the facts on the ground.
sliders1234
1yr ago
That stuff will exists but I don’t think it will get to peak 2019-2020.
sliders1234
1yr ago
In general I would agree that I would not expect much from a second Trump term. However, he would have some significant benefits this time.
-
The opposition left I believe will become less engaged. How do you motivate the troops if you spend 8 years calling him the Antichrist and then the American people reject that and vote him in anyway. They would be a defeated people.
-
He seems to be growing somewhat as a politician.
-
He’s going to be more popular during the second term and it seems like a lot of former Dem voters are moving to Trump voters because they now believe he’s better. I remember Chamath flipping a few months ago publicly.
-
The GOP has a better policy framework in the legal sense to deal with the left now. Guys like Hannania have been thinking about the legislative stuff that has provided the woke with protection. You have two types of corporations on woke stuff (1) the true believers (Disney) (2) those afraid of lawsuits and keep their mouth shut. Maybe nothing gets done but policy frameworks will exists in 2024 that did not exists in 2016. Ideas will exists to start to close the lefts institutional power. They will still dominate the institutions in terms of personel but their legal rights have a chance of being defanged.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I’ll come out and say it but I think Obl position is far more defensible than Hamas.
America did do a bunch of shit in the Middle East such as propping up Saudi Arabia which was basically a three way alliance between the religious leaders - Saudi Royal Family - US (guns and money). Lacking any direct means of gaining political control from those groups he was really only left with terrorism to shake things up. Hamas on the other hand just feels like a death cult that wants to see Jews killed. A political solution for Palistinians would have been found decades if they were had different beliefs.
I’m not going to say I agree with OBL beliefs but I do get somewhat close to a just war theory with him. Though I’ve come to a belief that on net the US/Saudi alliance was on net quite productive for all involved. The country is noticeably wealthier and more stable than others in the region. It seems to be that OBL chose the only conceivable military target to accomplish his political objectives.
I think it’s a zero now. Best talent won’t go there and this is a business that depends entirely on that. They will fall behind the others.
Perhaps they had good reasons for stopping this but now others will take the people building this and win.
As for your one comment on how things break for the issues of the day I feel like we live in completely different worlds. Have the world is running in Bronze Age values and .1% of the world is running post human.
sliders1234
1yr ago
The next wave of voters are anti-Israel. And there may be limits on this so for geopolitical games I don’t think Israel can count on that.
sliders1234
1yr ago
If Hamas formally surrendered and then allowed Israel occupation the aid would flow in. Same terms as Japan or Germany accepted - unconditional surrender.
sliders1234
1yr ago
They have built 300 miles of tunnels under Gaza for this exact war. Not resisting may have been not preparing for war.
Plus they have had random rocket launches for a long time. Which might be more of a threat to Israel since the Iron dome as a solution is expensive. They can’t trade unlimited missiles without going bankrupt against Gaza.
sliders1234
1yr ago
That’s not exactly as true anymore. First 20% of Israel are non Jewish Arabs. A lot of immigration last few decades have been Arab Jews and they have higher fertility.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Truish. But I’ve seen many fist fights. Not every day do people die. I would still call it a low probability.
I think people should be punished on what they do and not what occurs. Firing a bullet into someone has a much higher chance of death like 30% plus. Punching a guy probably sub 1%.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Was not doing lawyerly stuff and looking up sentencing guidelines.
I’ve seen things way worse get far less like DUI deaths getting out in a year.
Throwing one punch just doesn’t seem as complicit in someone’s death than driving drunk which is an event that should have been anticipated as a reasonable probability of death.
Henry Ruggs got 3-10 years which I would use as a behavior highly likely to result in death of someone. Driving 140 shitfaced.
Also when I said 2 years I meant 2 years time served which would be inline with a 3 year sentence. If you think a little higher I got no big beef but 2 felt ballpark right to me (for actual days served).
sliders1234
1yr ago
Being negligent at work would have been 2 years. He got a lot more and I believe there were racial civil rights or hate crime add-ons.
sliders1234
1yr ago
The argument that carried the day was a full lynch mob he’s a racists cracker who deserves life.
sliders1234
1yr ago
That’s how I would have voted on a jury but I think a reasonable argument can be made he was negligent and should have done better perhaps at a criminal level.
sliders1234
1yr ago
The first is rational from the most basic natural human instincts the second is irrational.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Is the argument wrong - I only used it for a reference. Seems obvious if you believe in hbd that selective breeding matters.
sliders1234
1yr ago
The guy who hit him should get 2 years. It was improbable his actions would lead to death but he did commit assault and it resulted in death.
Looks like a simple case here.
It does in many ways remind me of Floyd who at most Chauvin should have gotten 2 years for doing his legally authorized job with bad technique resulting in a death.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Isn’t this the Idiocracy argument? We need more relatively high IQ fertility so it’s rational in the sense it advances humanity.
sliders1234
1yr ago
So as I’m saying then rationality means nothing. Effective Altruism means nothing. Rationality just becomes I act like every other human who acts on emotions (I just call that my utility functions). EA well I’ve said it before they are just Democrats who gave themselves a different name to call themselves elites or above partisan politics. Which is basically true because people like SBF fairly universally just donated to Democrats.
sliders1234
1yr ago
I feel like this then boils down to rationality means nothing. As the other response says maybe she puts very high negative value on giving birth. Just declare something to be really bad (emotions/feelings) then therefore that behavior was in fact rational.
Rationality then becomes I am smart and I accurately verbalize my feelings therefore my behavior is rational. I’d say they are eating chocolate ice cream a normie eats it because they like chocolate ice cream but a rationalist eats it reasoning chocolate ice cream is 50 happiness points and being slightly fatter is -40 happiness points therefore they eat it.
sliders1234
1yr ago
How can she describe herself as a rationalist? She’s good at getting nerd affection. But she’s a female so rationally speaking selling sex by the hour makes no sense. Rationally speaking she should want to make 10 or so nerd babies. And make herself say lifetime money from that which pays much better than a thousand an hour.
Rationally speaking Musks seems to like making babies so shouldn’t she show up once or twice a month till she gets pregnant and repeat the process for a decade.
sliders1234
1yr ago
In general we shouldn’t publicize mass shootings because the biggest cause of mass shootings is social contagion.
I am going to assume everything in the manifesto is the white hate I expected. It’s useful to publicize this for political gain but it’s also likely to lead to more mass shootings. It would be better not publicize the crazies.
sliders1234
1yr ago
Ackmans recent letter to Harvard sounds like a lot of what rural white or ethnic white people would say about the place. They are excluded. And low social status in the elite hiearchy.
https://twitter.com/billackman/status/1720987581549080965?s=46&t=aQ6ajj220jubjU7-o3SuWQ
sliders1234
1yr ago
The betting markets aren’t perfect but they seem to indicate Biden is still favored head to head. It’s possible but feels wrong to me.
It’s like if the Steelers played the Cowboys. The Steelers went up 21-0 but espn probability calculator of victory was 54% Cowboys before the game and still 54% Cowboys after the Steelers went up 21-0. You can make a story why it’s correct but from a Bayesian calculation it feels like the score changing is important news.
There are legal mechanisms for him to remain POTUS until his death assuming he can win the vote. He has loyal children of age. He can just run one of his children for decades. And that would not violate the constitution.
He might even be more effective that way as people would feel more comfortable that he’s not sitting on the nuclear button.
China and Russia have both been in a similar situation. Putin and Deng were both considered the ultimate power when they had no official position.
More options
Context Copy link