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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   31639 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of December 5, 2022

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So what about the German right-wing conspiracy that got busted? On one hand, they seem pretty crazy with conspiracy theories and actually believing that the German people would support a coup. On the other hand, they don't seem like random nobodies but the kind of people you would want on your coup if you were to do a coup.

Link to news story: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63885028

Some random thoughts:

  1. Was this conspiracy realistic? Or was it just a big larp? (Are all coups big larps?)

  2. How strong were the Russian connections? Are the arrests a blow to Putin?

  3. Why do the conspiracy thing when you can just do normal politics in AfD and actually get power the true and tried way [insert reference to well-known, democratically successful German right wing leader]. Or if you insist on conspiracy, you can at least march trough the institutions, it seems like the better option? And if you really need power nownow, why not just take the exit option (e.g. move to Russia and make your own auth-right comune there?)?

I'd be happy for someone who has an actual take or an interesting perspective on this to create their own top level thread.

Your auth-right commune might get sent wholesale to siege Popasna or reinforce the line near Bakhmut or whatever. Alternatively, denazified via prison rapes or set on fire by Chechens. Also the climate is terrible. Other than that, a decent idea.

This isn't the first time Europeans bust a conspiracy with a surprisingly competent military prepping and an inane, politically doomed premise. I guess it's a package deal – if you really reject democracy, you cannot recognize how it recruits people to defend itself.

Russian law makes father of multiple children exempt from draft, so if these auth-right going to have trad-level TFR instead of 1.2 there's no problem

This assumes that 1) the russian state honors protections given to non-russians and 2) these auth-right are going to have a trad-level TFR(American tradcaths are 3.6, which seems like it's more of a lower bound because of poor quality data, Haredi have a fertility rate of 6.6, Amish probably have a fertility rate of 5.5-ish, average American church attending christian is just above replacement. I can't find great data, but Afrikaners, Cossacks, and UGCC[Ukrainian Catholics, arguably the most conservative Catholic eastern rite subdivision and notably more religious than the country as a whole] look broadly similar or slightly higher. So say 2.5 as a reasonable lower bound on trad level TFR. My read is that these people weren't mostly religious right, they were extreme libertarians trying to justify themselves with historical revisionism, and that probably has a fertility rate closer to the German average than to replacement, let alone the above replacement conservative Christian bounce.)

Russian law also makes it illegal to deploy conscripts and other non-volunteers outside of Russian borders especially since Russia is not in a state of war. Some guardsmen thought they had legal case and went to court over it.

That is putting significant faith in Russian state following laws. To say nothing about fact that laws can be changed and that Putin’s mobilization decree has a secret clause.

Would anyone who accepts Russian citizenship be delusional enough to think they'd not get mobilized in case of war ?

Also, would authorities care to suppress a bunch of foreign weirdoes who move to some rural area, bother nobody, engage in no political activity and pay their taxes ? It's not really something threatening. Or would it be that e.g. police would try to shake them down for bribes, and if they don't play ball try to set them up as subversives ?

Also, would authorities care to suppress a bunch of foreign weirdoes who move to some rural area, bother nobody, engage in no political activity and pay their taxes ? It's not really something threatening. Or would it be that e.g. police would try to shake them down for bribes, and if they don't play ball try to set them up as subversives

Yes. No matter how rural the area is, there will be local authorities there that see the weirdoes as rich foreigners, their new cows to milk. And if they try to avoid interacting with the authorities, they're a great target for the FSB. Moving further into the forest? Sounds like trying to locate a secret military base!

I'm not saying it can't be done, but I've seen this work only in literal Siberia, where the FSB isn't willing to brave the clouds of mosquitos/metres of snow to investigate some religious nutjobs.

Given the SANCTITY OF GOF, you want literal Siberia. And hunting rifles and potatoes.

Hunting rifles? Might be hard to get your hands on one if you're an outsider.

If you're a Russian citizen, aren't they shall-issue ? Do they make special rule for people who have immigrated recently ?

Also, if you live in the ass-end of Siberian rural area, buying illegal weapons and keeping buried in the woods for those true emergencies is probably fairly low risk.

Citizebs need to own a shotgun license for five years before they can apply for a rifle license. Both require a background check and a psych evaluation. Non-citizens can bring their firearms with them from abroad for organized hunts, but can't buy firearms in Russia unless they promptly export them.

Rural Siberians own unlicensed rifles for poaching, but I doubt they will sell them to trad nutjobs.

Rural Siberians own unlicensed rifles for poaching, but I doubt they will sell them to trad nutjobs.

Would depend entirely on relationships. Also, money speaks. Trad nutjobs who generally wouldn't be seen and who treated the locals with respect, didn't make any trouble and had money from remote work might persuade e.g. some guy who aged out of poaching to sell weapons.

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I thought Russia was more or less shall issue for shotguns, but center fire rifles were only available after a trial period?

In any case, I highly doubt the rules are enforced as written.

They have a sort of 'shotgun' that balistically is close to a rifle or something like that. IIRc.

In any case, shotguns can be used up to 50m with the right ammo, which is enough for hunting in woods.

A somewhat tangential comment: to my understanding, yes, shotguns are easier to acquire than rifles for civilians--apparently to the point that even the Kalashnikov Concern makes what are essentially pistol-caliber carbines that are regulated as shotguns thanks to legal compliance shenanigans you normally only see in America.

Hard to say if even shotguns are easy to get for a hypothetical trad-cath transplant from Germany, though.

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Would anyone who accepts Russian citizenship be delusional enough to think they'd not get mobilized in case of war ?

Well, as a piece of anecdata in fitting with Dase's Cheems Heuristic, I recently saw a video seemingly taken by a mobilized Russian where he documents his troop having to sleep in conditions roughly equivalent to what WWI soldiers had to deal with: unfit for humane habitation, albeit probably not immediately deadly (this being some sort of unlit, damp, and cold barracks or other, definitely looked disgusting). The man taking the video made it very clear he did not expect this.

So yes, I imagine Russian citizens have indeed been getting a brutal dose of reality when they get caught up in the mobilization, and while the results aren't necessarily anomalous compared to historical records, it really ain't pretty.

But this is talking about more "normal" Russians, I'm presuming more urban Russians who have never been too far from civilization. Dase might be talking about something different.

I think that everyone knows about the Russian draft and the tradition of dedovshchina is the reason(well, one of the bigger ones) that you haven’t seen anyone try to negotiate with the Russians to set up a semiautonomous zone in rural Siberia somewhere.

a) Does Russia even have universal conscription anymore ? Outside of war ?

b) things can happen without you being aware of them. Indeed, the most interesting things happen usually without much fanfare.

I think everyone kind of knows that the russian draft falls hardest on rural areas and people who are not ethnic russians.

But is it because the people are the least motivated to run away, or because the authorities are the most brutal due to the relative powerlessness of rural ethnic minorities ?

a) Does Russia even have universal conscription anymore ? Outside of war ?

Yes, but conscription-dodging is a national pastime for lower middle class and higher Russians.

Is that specific to ethnic Russians? Are non-slavic ethnicities able to dodge the draft the same way, given equivalent resources?

I'm legitimately curious, given that I know ethnic discrimination is widespread in Russia and the Russian army is disproportionately minority.

That's not specific to ethnic Russians, but a higher proportion of certain ethnicities is working class. Plus, they usually have a healthier population pyramid.

Another reason is that local degenerates will simply rob you or set your property on fire or poison your livestock if you keep showing off with how trad and industrious and put-together you are. Many such cases with naive folks who tried returning to their farming roots. You can only do it with a reasonably large community that can afford security, and at that level you're perceived as a threat to the authorities or local mafia.

It's very much a shame.

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